2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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8312 posts

Uber Geek

#2828475 8-Dec-2021 09:26

sbiddle:

So this explains now why in multiple interviews in recent weeks that Bloomfield said that Auckland moving to red once we moved to the traffic light system was not set in stone like the PM kept saying it was.

Health advice to the govt was for Auckland to be in orange and for the border to go at the same time as we moved to the traffic light framework https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/covid-19-delta-outbreak-revealed-the-public-health-advice-to-have-auckland-unshackled-by-now-and-why-jacinda-ardern-rejected-it/JEGM2JZOSTDJIZXL3UXKMYPJ4A/

Its also eminently sensible from a Public Health standpoint, as it means you have stronger restrictions on hand to use shoudl case numbers start to increase,

I've got a fiver riding on Auckland being declared orange when the border shift happens next week... potentially only Northland left in Red

GV27

5896 posts

Uber Geek

#2828487 8-Dec-2021 09:41

wellygary:

Its also eminently sensible from a Public Health standpoint, as it means you have stronger restrictions on hand to use shoudl case numbers start to increase,

Yet the official advice suggested otherwise.

You can make any number of decisions based on 'X bad thing might happen so let's not do Y', which is why you get advice from officials about how much of an issue that actually is. The advice was apparently suggesting otherwise.

You could in theory have locked Auckland down forever because we're never going back to zero Covid.

Sup

366 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2828495 8-Dec-2021 09:54

I think what is being lost here, is that people are taking a very concrete view to not following health advice.

People seem to be saying that this is akin to when politicians ignore health advice that is protective. That is not the process here. This is a political decision to take on board the health advice, and make a decision to wait, rather than ignore the message per se. Being prudent. A matter of not agreeing on time rather than principle.

'I am not ready'. We all do this with health advice in our own lives when we feel we are not ready for the next step, and the bottom line is, it is advice, it is not some universal constant like the speed of light, the Govt are where the buck stops.

I am very pro health advice. But I understand the nuanced context that health advice is given, and the limits of a clinician(s) ability to see the forest for the trees sometimes.

A good example, was this belief by the health advisors, that eradication, since it has worked in the past, will work again and in the future. The eradication plan....I guarantee you....would not have included a woman showing up at Middlemore hospital for a domestic related matter, self discharging, to be later found at a Gang pad. The health advice would not have included the mentally ill man who leaves crises housing, wanders off on a rainy night, picking up cigarette buts from the footpath, eating out of rubbish bins.....going from South Auckland to the Auckland city mission with Covid.

You only need to read the unofficial health advice in Stuff and the Herald etc being doled out by people like Siouxsie Wiles and Michael Baker to see that not all experts give the same health advice.

Which is why this is a process by consensus, and why the person leading a country, still has to make a call of the sequence and timing of the health advice being actioned.

The Govt and the MOH goal is the same. People are being asked to wait. That is really a uhm thing Kiwis are not good at doing.

Just keep swimming...

GV27

5896 posts

Uber Geek

#2828500 8-Dec-2021 10:00

Sup:

You only need to read the unofficial health advice in Stuff and the Herald etc being doled out by people like Siouxsie Wiles and Michael Baker to see that not all experts give the same health advice.

Which is why this is a process by consensus, and why the person leading a country, still has to make a call of the sequence and timing of the health advice being actioned.

The Govt and the MOH goal is the same. People are being asked to wait. That is really a uhm thing Kiwis are not good at doing. Kiwis have become the me and now culture.

We're talking about the advice that goes to Cabinet specifically. That they've relied on for the whole pandemic up until this point.

And no offence, Aucklanders have been stuck behind a hard border for over 100 days now. Whatever insightful social commentary you think you're making about Kiwis becoming a 'me' culture isn't relevant or even remotely helpful.

Scott3

3963 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2828509 8-Dec-2021 10:13

sbiddle:

So this explains now why in multiple interviews in recent weeks that Bloomfield said that Auckland moving to red once we moved to the traffic light system was not set in stone like the PM kept saying it was.

Health advice to the govt was for Auckland to be in orange and for the border to go at the same time as we moved to the traffic light framework https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/covid-19-delta-outbreak-revealed-the-public-health-advice-to-have-auckland-unshackled-by-now-and-why-jacinda-ardern-rejected-it/JEGM2JZOSTDJIZXL3UXKMYPJ4A/

As other have said, this is credibility damaging for the government. I don't recall the exact wording used at the announcement, however the message that the government has been following health advice has been strong in recent months. To find out the government has moved away from that approach without disclosing it is surprising.

That said (as an Auckland) I don't think the actual outcome itself is a bad one. Current approach means:

We have a couple of weeks to observe the impact of "red" on Auckland case numbers before opening travel - Gives the option to abort the plan if stuff is spiraling out of control.
Allowed roughly a month warning of the opening. Pretty strong message to people in northland, Gisborne etc. Auckland are coming... While allowing enought time for those concerned to get fully vaccintaed.
Regarding other area's in Red, other than Auckland low vaccination rates are a factor. - Red provides stronger motivation for people to get vaccinated than orange, so the best chance of these area's getting their vaccination rates up.
Making everywhere but Northland & Auckland orange would have incresed pressure for the south island to be green.
I think ethically it is appropriate to slow the spread of covid-19 across the country as much as possible. We have vaccines for the 5 - 11 age group expected to be available at the end January, oral covid-19 treatments available next year etc.
Current approach reduces the risk of Christmas being canceled (which would be extremely unpopular with the NZ public). The impact of opening Auckland's borders will only just be starting to be seen in case numbers on Christmas day.

Dulouz

883 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2828511 8-Dec-2021 10:18

Scott3:

Current approach reduces the risk of Christmas being canceled (which would be extremely unpopular with the NZ public). The impact of opening Auckland's borders will only just be starting to be seen in case numbers on Christmas day.

I think reducing Christmas being cancelled is critical to the Govt's strategy. It's also why changes to MIQ only take effect from the 15th of January to reduce the chance of summer holiday plans being screwed up.

Amanon

GV27

5896 posts

Uber Geek

#2828513 8-Dec-2021 10:23

Scott3:

Regarding other area's in Red, other than Auckland low vaccination rates are a factor. - Red provides stronger motivation for people to get vaccinated than orange, so the best chance of these area's getting their vaccination rates up.

Those areas in red had a hundred days to get it together and accelerate their rollouts.

For Auckland to be stuck behind a hard border because other DHBs couldn't get the cut-through they needed during that time period is borderline immoral. You can argue it ethically on some level, but once the official advice says a border is not needed, what then? What is this decision, if not political?

The basic rights of Aucklanders mattered less than the rights of other parts of the country to drag the chain on getting vaccinated.

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sbiddle

30853 posts

Uber Geek

Retired Mod

Trusted

Biddle Corp

Lifetime subscriber

#2828522 8-Dec-2021 10:38

GV27:

Sup:

You only need to read the unofficial health advice in Stuff and the Herald etc being doled out by people like Siouxsie Wiles and Michael Baker to see that not all experts give the same health advice.

Which is why this is a process by consensus, and why the person leading a country, still has to make a call of the sequence and timing of the health advice being actioned.

The Govt and the MOH goal is the same. People are being asked to wait. That is really a uhm thing Kiwis are not good at doing. Kiwis have become the me and now culture.

We're talking about the advice that goes to Cabinet specifically. That they've relied on for the whole pandemic up until this point.

And no offence, Aucklanders have been stuck behind a hard border for over 100 days now. Whatever insightful social commentary you think you're making about Kiwis becoming a 'me' culture isn't relevant or even remotely helpful.

This is the key thing here.

We've been told by the govt that the whole pandemic that they only listen to and act on health advice.We know from decisions being made recently that this is no longer the case.

Scott3

3963 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2828529 8-Dec-2021 10:46

GV27:

Scott3:

Regarding other area's in Red, other than Auckland low vaccination rates are a factor. - Red provides stronger motivation for people to get vaccinated than orange, so the best chance of these area's getting their vaccination rates up.

Those areas in red had a hundred days to get it together and accelerate their rollouts.

For Auckland to be stuck behind a hard border because other DHBs couldn't get the cut-through they needed during that time period is borderline immoral. You can argue it ethically on some level, but once the official advice says a border is not needed, what then? What is this decision, if not political?

The basic rights of Aucklanders mattered less than the rights of other parts of the country to drag the chain on getting vaccinated.

There were two distinct way's the advice differed from the action:

Advised to remove Auckland border
Advised to put Central / eastern north island area's in orange not red.

My comment was refering to the latter. Still could have those area's in red, even if Auckland border was removed.

Sup

366 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2828530 8-Dec-2021 10:46

GV27:

Sup:

You only need to read the unofficial health advice in Stuff and the Herald etc being doled out by people like Siouxsie Wiles and Michael Baker to see that not all experts give the same health advice.

Which is why this is a process by consensus, and why the person leading a country, still has to make a call of the sequence and timing of the health advice being actioned.

The Govt and the MOH goal is the same. People are being asked to wait. That is really a uhm thing Kiwis are not good at doing. Kiwis have become the me and now culture.

We're talking about the advice that goes to Cabinet specifically. That they've relied on for the whole pandemic up until this point.

And no offence, Aucklanders have been stuck behind a hard border for over 100 days now. Whatever insightful social commentary you think you're making about Kiwis becoming a 'me' culture isn't relevant or even remotely helpful.

Auckland I have seen described as a prison by critics, and I see this sentiment being widely shared.

I used to live in Auckland. All over that region.

Auckland was rated the number one city in the world. With its two harbors, temperate forests, sweeping vistas, volcanic cones, golden sandy beaches, or the breath taking stark contrast of the wild west coast black sands.

You can swim at the base of waterfalls, or watch the sun setting behind the volcanic Island smack bang in the middle of the shimmering Waitemata.

In my working life I spent decades in maximum security facilities.

Hard borders, restricted movement, feeling imprisoned are very much a social construct and relative to the psychology of people.

I can see why Aucklander's feel they have done it tough compared to the rest of the world who are also living with Covid 19.

Just keep swimming...

GV27

5896 posts

Uber Geek

#2828536 8-Dec-2021 10:59

Sup:

Auckland I have seen described as a prison by critics, and I see this sentiment being widely shared.

I used to live in Auckland. All over that region.

Auckland was rated the number one city in the world. With its two harbors, temperate forests, sweeping vistas, volcanic cones, golden sandy beaches, or the breath taking stark contrast of the wild west coast black sands.

You can swim at the base of waterfalls, or watch the sun setting behind the volcanic Island smack bang in the middle of the shimmering Waitemata.

In my working life I spent decades in maximum security facilities.

Hard borders, restricted movement, feeling imprisoned are very much a social construct and relative to the psychology of people.

I can see why Aucklander's feel they have done it tough compared to the rest of the world who are also living with Covid 19.

Unfortunately it's a hard city to enjoy living in. At the best of time it is a congested mess, there is inadequate and expensive housing and the cost of getting too and from work is enormous. The beaches are over-subscribed and are often closed due to spill-over after weather events.

A lot of Auckland's problems seem to be out of sight and out of mind for the people responsible for fixing them, like transport or zoning or migration, and decisions like this only further reinforce the impression that there's more votes outside Auckland than there are in it, and things will never change as a result.

The experience of the rest of the world isn't relevant here - it's the rest of the country. They were free to go about their business and live their lives despite their crappy vaccination rates and Aucklanders took yet another one for the team, against official advice.

Forgive us if we want answers.

Sup

366 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2828540 8-Dec-2021 11:10

Personally I support Auckland reopening.

Agreed Auckland has taken the biggest hit in the whole New Zealand Covid story. If we say what is happening in other places is not relevant then we miss the opportunity to understand the progress we have made here.

New Zealand is the only country that I am aware of, who have outrun a Delta wave via a vaccine roll out and health measures, without putting stress on health care.

As far as I can see. No one in the world has done this. Sure, critique the systems. Or you may miss the opportunity for improvements.

But do so in a balanced context.

Just keep swimming...

Sup

366 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2828544 8-Dec-2021 11:16

sbiddle:

This is the key thing here.

We've been told by the govt that the whole pandemic that they only listen to and act on health advice.We know from decisions being made recently that this is no longer the case.

With all due disrespect....

But the Govts current position is based off historic health advice.

Being the only country in the world to beat Delta from pressuring health care is based off the health advice.

Therefore you cannot say they are no longer following the health advice. They are saying, we do not think we are ready for your next protocols....therefore we will stick with your last health advice a little longer...because from what we can see now...that health advice you gave us, is actually working, can we not wait a little longer to fix what is not broken.

People are skewing this whole thing into the Govt no longer following the health advisors period. This is not true.

Just keep swimming...

GV27

5896 posts

Uber Geek

#2828551 8-Dec-2021 11:35

Sup:

Being the only country in the world to beat Delta from pressuring health care is based off the health advice.

We don't live in other parts of the world. We live in the bit that has been locked behind a hard, internal border for longer than was advised was necessary. That's what matters.

Appealing for comparisons to other countries who bungled their response does nothing but set a lower bar for us. The fact the US/UK dropped the ball isn't an excuse to look the other way when our border testing doesn't match up with what we're told, or when our contact tracing teams that can supposedly handle a thousand cases a day falls over at under 200, or why repeated independent reports around rapid-testing and MOH communications were ignored.

You don't improve a response by just going "it could be worse". The fact 40% of Kiwis are stuck behind an internal border against official advice is more than noteworthy.

Sup

366 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2828597 8-Dec-2021 12:38

GV27:

Sup:

Being the only country in the world to beat Delta from pressuring health care is based off the health advice.

We don't live in other parts of the world. We live in the bit that has been locked behind a hard, internal border for longer than was advised was necessary. That's what matters.

Appealing for comparisons to other countries who bungled their response does nothing but set a lower bar for us. The fact the US/UK dropped the ball isn't an excuse to look the other way when our border testing doesn't match up with what we're told, or when our contact tracing teams that can supposedly handle a thousand cases a day falls over at under 200, or why repeated independent reports around rapid-testing and MOH communications were ignored.

You don't improve a response by just going "it could be worse". The fact 40% of Kiwis are stuck behind an internal border against official advice is more than noteworthy.

We could go around in circles all day. I am happy to agree to disagree. From my pov, as far as I understand Global pandemics and epidemiology, the thing we are talking about is infectious therefore it always has a global context.

Measuring outcomes of different approaches is at the heart of science.You can compartmentalize if you choose.

But in Science, progress is measured by comparison. And this is a scientific topic.

Just keep swimming...

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