2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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366 posts

Ultimate Geek
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#2832805 15-Dec-2021 12:27

Scott3:

Sup:

Wow. I am sitting here scratching my head. I do not understand this. Cases are rising at Omicron speeds but this is a Delta wave?

This exponential growth is nothing like the last Delta curve. What previously took weeks is happening day on day.

I might have been wide of the mark regarding Omicron. As you say, the surge doesn't seem to align with how we expect delta to behave in a highly vaccinated population.

My feeling was that the growth in case numbers was simply too fast to be reflective of omicron. As of yesterday, NSW had only sequenced 85 Omicron case's total, which supported my stance:

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-records-804-covid-19-cases-as-hospitality-venue-clusters-grow-20211214-p59hbu.html

But it seems that officials think it is an Omicron Surge:

"However, it is believed hundreds more cases of the variant will be detected, after genomic sequencing revealed some cases in large clusters linked to nightclubs and parties had Omicron.

“We are of the belief that Omicron transmission is accounting for our increased case numbers at present,” Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant said on Tuesday."

Perhaps Omicron is so fast that the genomic sequencing isn't keeping up...

You were not wide of the mark, you were using the information available at the time in a rappidly changing situation.

Thanks for the links. I did not realise we were talking significant super spreader events here. Perfect storm by the looks. Tomorrows numbers will be compelling.

Just keep swimming...

evnafets

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Ultimate Geek
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#2832811 15-Dec-2021 12:36

cruxis:

As you know high schools have now ended for the year. So at the usual end of year staff drinks the vaccine mandate for teachers was warmly discussed. The main complaint was not the mandate itself which nearly all teachers are fine with.

There might be a bit of selection bias going on there.
Presumably the only teachers 'left' who could attend that party were ones who had been vaccinated - otherwise they wouldn't have been able to continue teaching right?

Doesn't negate your point of absurdity / hypocrisy, but it does bear keeping in mind. This may not reflect the view of teachers 'as a whole'

ezbee

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Uber Geek
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#2832821 15-Dec-2021 12:52

Well is probably a very small selection bias.

Given that going back to Dec 2nd at least 97.6% of teachers had at least one vaccination.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/education/127167532/covid19-976-of-teachers-vaccinated-ministry-of-education-reveals

Antivax teachers seem to be a very small number.
With the large number of older teachers, as we don't seem to train significantly for trades and professions.

Age makes this a vulnerable worker population.
Ventilation and air filters, sure, but schools are generally poorly maintained.
So probably only your green school for a select few flush with a loan.
We even have relatively new schools tackling leaky building issues and such.

ezbee

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#2832840 15-Dec-2021 13:34

Eltham Covid-19 cluster: 'Absolutely stupid' school didn't close after first case, councillor says
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300478196/eltham-covid19-cluster-absolutely-stupid-school-didnt-close-after-first-case-councillor-says

""
It's understood at least 11 of these are students at the school.

Eltham-based South Taranaki district councilor Mark Bellringer said it was “absolutely stupid” the school didn't close.
""

wellygary

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#2832847 15-Dec-2021 13:41

Scott3:

NSW numbers are out.

1,360 in the 24 hrs to 8pm 14th Dec.

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/stats-nsw.aspx

Gonna take an early punt and go out on a limb:

Unless something dramatically good happens in NSW the NZ govt will lose its nerve... and the 17th Jan date for allowing returning NZers from OZ to self isolate will not happen...

I think they will still be some form of MIQ, ( probably shortened, but still there)- this allows them to keep caps on the numbers of arrivals

I simply can't see the NZ govt greenlighting self isolation when there are 1000s ( potentially 10s of thousands) of daily cases in OZ....

Sup

366 posts

Ultimate Geek
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#2832854 15-Dec-2021 14:00

wellygary:

Scott3:

NSW numbers are out.

1,360 in the 24 hrs to 8pm 14th Dec.

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/stats-nsw.aspx

Gonna take an early punt and go out on a limb:

Unless something dramatically good happens in NSW the NZ govt will lose its nerve... and the 17th Jan date for allowing returning NZers from OZ to self isolate will not happen...

I think they will still be some form of MIQ, ( probably shortened, but still there)- this allows them to keep caps on the numbers of arrivals

I simply can't see the NZ govt greenlighting self isolation when there are 1000s ( potentially 10s of thousands) of daily cases in OZ....

If we are still omicron free by then....I agree. I cannot see how it would make sense to let Omicron rip, in a two shot system, until boosters have reached an acceptable level.

Also, we are looking at unvaccinated kids as well.

Seems obvious that if we are lucky for that long that we should try to maintain till kids are protected and the bulk of the adult population has better than sub therapeutic coverage.

Just keep swimming...

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ezbee

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#2832870 15-Dec-2021 14:25

Australia opening is going to be tricky when even Australian states are putting up quarantine barriers internally.
I'm just imagining what South Island would have done if it was a separate state with its own powers.

Queensland, which has had very low cases for a long time.

Christmas cancelled: Snap decision sends hundreds of fully vaccinated Aussie travellers into isolation without warning
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2021/12/christmas-cancelled-snap-decision-sends-hundreds-of-fully-vaccinated-aussie-travellers-into-isolation-without-warning.html

wellygary

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#2832884 15-Dec-2021 14:55

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-15/covid-live-updates-press-conference-omicron-vaccine-borders/100700336

"modelling from the University of NSW shows the state "could" have 25,000 new COVID-19 cases per day by “the end of January”."

Self isolation for returnees is dead and buried....

Scott3

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#2832885 15-Dec-2021 15:00

Sup:

If we are still omicron free by then....I agree. I cannot see how it would make sense to let Omicron rip, in a two shot system, until boosters have reached an acceptable level.

Also, we are looking at unvaccinated kids as well.

Seems obvious that if we are lucky for that long that we should try to maintain till kids are protected and the bulk of the adult population has better than sub therapeutic coverage.

We should know in roughly two weeks the impact of this Omicron surge on the NSW health system.

If they are still doing OK, then perhaps Omicron is the mild, but very contagious pandemic ending strain we have all be hoping for. - In this case, letting it in and letting it rip ASAP (while we are still in summer) might be a good idea.

But if they are slammed, then we need to keep MIQ etc. And probiably hit the panic button - perhaps doing mandatory vaccination.

vexxxboy

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#2832894 15-Dec-2021 15:22

more evidence of why you get vaccinated.

"Andrew Connolly will correct me if I'm wrong, but 100 percent of those who wound up in ICU are unvaccinated," Little said.

"Exactly right minister, the double dose appears to have prevented any New Zealander entering the ICU," Dr Connolly replied.

"Certainly no fully vaccinated patients with COVID have ended up in ICU.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/12/two-doses-of-covid-19-vaccine-prevented-any-new-zealander-entering-icu-chief-medical-officer.html

Common sense is not as common as you think.

quickymart

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#2832900 15-Dec-2021 15:29

Oblivian:

David Farrier is back at the keyboard. This one is a good read.

Honeypot for AVers. A few change their tune. But the usual ones end in insults and abuse or refuse to beleive

https://www.webworm.co/p/information

Thanks for posting this, really good (and interesting) to read.

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Buster

297 posts

Ultimate Geek
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#2832902 15-Dec-2021 15:29

Yesterday Australia 2012

Today 2764

Batman

Mad Scientist
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#2832990 15-Dec-2021 17:45

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/127295922/new-zealands-youngest-confirmed-covid19-death-is-a-person-in-their-30s

neb

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#2833205 15-Dec-2021 23:22

Possibly also one for the "things that make you smile" thread, but these three gins from Good George seem particularly appropriate. I can't enter the URL directly but in the following replace the "duck" with the obvious alternative:

https://www.goodgeorge.kiwi.nz/products/duck-off-2020-gin

https://www.goodgeorge.kiwi.nz/products/for-ducks-sake-2021-gin

https://www.goodgeorge.kiwi.nz/products/whats-ducking-next-2022-gin

Sup

366 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 249

#2833208 15-Dec-2021 23:51

Scott3:

Sup:

If we are still omicron free by then....I agree. I cannot see how it would make sense to let Omicron rip, in a two shot system, until boosters have reached an acceptable level.

Also, we are looking at unvaccinated kids as well.

Seems obvious that if we are lucky for that long that we should try to maintain till kids are protected and the bulk of the adult population has better than sub therapeutic coverage.

We should know in roughly two weeks the impact of this Omicron surge on the NSW health system.

If they are still doing OK, then perhaps Omicron is the mild, but very contagious pandemic ending strain we have all be hoping for. - In this case, letting it in and letting it rip ASAP (while we are still in summer) might be a good idea.

But if they are slammed, then we need to keep MIQ etc. And probiably hit the panic button - perhaps doing mandatory vaccination.

If we are looking at a less virulent but mega infectious disease, then I think we will have to shift the usual two to four weeks till impact guide that we have used with Covid so far.

I am not a epidemiologist, this stuff is all guess work for me, however I am wondering whether there is the potential for the rules of the game to change.

With Delta in say a system like we saw in Australia, you get these waves that peak at around 1500 to 2000 cases. With omicron, if the doubling time keeps going....then even if it is one tenth as virulent....you will eventually see a wave so large that people needing hospital will end up a big number in one big clump.

I hope that makes sense.

For example, lets say it takes twenty thousand Omicron cases per day and a two week lead in before hospitals feel a bit of pressure, that would take longer than a Delta wave to show that you have a problem.

if that number then continues to double every 2.4 days then you have a looming problem which will manifest later, when cases hit mega wave size.

I hope not, the thing will be whether this new variant can sustain that doubling rate. Delta could not, but Omicron is resistant to two shots so yet again we see a potential race on to get people boosted.

Just keep swimming...

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