Buster:

 

NSW records 11,201 new COVID-19 cases. Hospitalisations rose to 625, with 61 people in intensive care. Three more people have died with the virus.

 

Five deaths in Victoria, 3767 cases, 397 in hospital.

 

This was anticipated but it is still jaw dropping.

 

If you go back to their last peak in September, they maxed out at ~1200 hospitalisation with ~240 in ICU and 120 ventilated and this was from a peak of ~1500 daily cases, (with a 2 week lag)

So based on a 2 week lag we get ~1500 cases (15-16 Dec) yielding 600 hospitalisations with only 10% of them in ICU (vs 20% last time)

BUT unless something changes 10K cases today could yield 4000 hospitalisations with 400 in ICU in two weeks..  but 2 weeks after that who knows....