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NZ added now that we have over 150 cases. Very early days but it seems we are (were?) trending similar to the US and Italy rather than the UK and AU. NZ trendline steepens if take the origin back a few days (whether start at ~20, ~50 or ~100 cases). But same may be true for other countries (not checked).
If we follow same pattern as other countries, expect another 8 - 10+ days before we start to roll off exponential growth in case numbers due to infection > symptom > test confirmation lag. By then the number of cases in NZ may be in the 3500 - 6500 range.
It will be interesting to see what does happen in the next several days though.
IF our exponential growth over the last 9 days or so was predominantly due to imported cases, we would expect to see roll off from exponential sooner due fewer incoming passengers (perhaps starting in 3 - 5 days?). The lag time for imports should be less on average as in most cases infection occurred overseas, with some arriving already symptomatic & confirmed within two days or so. Hence import contribution to new cases should drop off faster than the impact of the lockdown.
Will post an update in a few days (unless people have seen enough of the plot!).
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US values are not final for the 25th but are probably not far off (still the 25th in the US). Based on the worldometers.com data, US will likely exceed Italy (and potentially even match China) in just one more day.
Spain already exceeds China at a similar stage of progression. Italian cases are continuing to taper off though also look likely to rise above China (currently on par).
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Small edit to text re impact of fewer incoming passengers.
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Common sense is not as common as you think.
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