2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2483833 14-May-2020 15:08

Isn't the thrust of Bill Gates effort international cooperation to get billions of doses available worldwide?

kingdragonfly

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#2483849 14-May-2020 15:43

Ummm... shouldn't we be condemning the people who want to keep covid-19 vaccine and treatment information secret for profit?

How big-pharma and copyright lawyers views the virus

Why do you think pharma was more interested in boner pills than dengue fever?

One modelling estimate indicates 390 million dengue virus infections per year.

Fred99

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#2483878 14-May-2020 16:21

kingdragonfly:

Why do you think pharma was more interested in boner pills than dengue fever?

One modelling estimate indicates 390 million dengue virus infections per year.

Viagra wasn't developed as a "boner pill" but discovered as a side effect of the drug in trials for intended use for angina.

Sanofi make a dengue vaccine, it was used in the Philippines and unfortunately a few children died of what may have been (or may not have been) antibody-dependant enhancement (ADE). It probably wasn't, but as it had been rolled out in schools it created a political storm, and to this day it's cited by anti-vaxxers as "proof" that "vaccines are dangerous". I think it's been approved by FDA (US) now, with warning about not administering to people who've previously had dengue.

This potential problem is something that's going to have to be very thoroughly tested with a C-19 vaccine. ADE was observed in animal trials for potential SARS and MERS vaccines.

And talking of Sanofi, they've struck a deal with Trump. The US gave them some cash for research, in return if they develop a vaccine, the US gets the first supplies - ahead of even France (where Sanofi are based - and were once a state owned enterprise).

neb

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#2483881 14-May-2020 16:25

frankv:
Ummm... shouldn't we be condemning the people who want to keep covid-19 vaccine and treatment information secret for profit?

Other reports on that have the US government essentially telling US researchers "keep all the research in the US, we don't want anyone else being able to use it". Which is probably a lot closer to the real motivation than the Chinese bogeyman version.

kingdragonfly

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#2483890 14-May-2020 16:46

Washington Post: How democracies can survive dilemmas like the coronavirus

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern briefs the media about the coronavirus at the Parliament House in Wellington on April 27. (Mark Mitchell/AFP/Getty Images)

By Roberto Stefan Foa and Andrew James Klassen

Effective crisis leadership helps them rebound.

The covid-19 pandemic presents politicians and policymakers with the most serious public health crisis this century. Global leaders are working without a road map — and their responses often alternate between denial, panic and soothing yet disingenuous messages of reassurance.

This pandemic will pose a major legitimacy test — both for governments in power and for the very systems of governance on which they rely. A wide range of commentators — from Francis Fukuyama to Anne Applebaum to Gideon Rachman and Daron Acemoglu — have weighed in on whether government effectiveness in handling this epidemic will restore or undermine faith in democracy and democratic governance.

Democracies were under siege before the coronavirus

Here’s what we know for certain: The current crisis hasn’t arrived at a good time for the world’s democracies. Our recent report shows how satisfaction with democratic governance had already eroded during the past decade. Even before the novel coronavirus outbreak, public confidence in democratic institutions was at a low point in the United States, Southern Europe, sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, as this figure shows.

In the early weeks of the outbreak, it seemed that authoritarian China — rather than the democracies of the West — would be discredited by the disease outbreak. Reports emerged that local officials had hushed up initial medical reports, indirectly causing the country’s most severe recession in decades. Commentators were seriously discussing if this could be the beginning of the end of the regime — as Mikhail Gorbachev famously said of the 1986 Chernobyl disaster and the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Yet by early March, China was touting its capacity to conduct effective containment policy. Many of the world’s major democracies, in contrast, are floundering to contain and suppress the coronavirus.

Citizens expect their leaders to handle crises well

Our data show that public faith in democracy depends heavily on how democracies handle policy crises. That’s what makes it so important that democracies are ultimately successful in containing the current pandemic.

...In general, poor crisis performance leads to lasting civic dissatisfaction. That’s not a promising sign for public confidence in democracy in 2020, amid reports of covid-19 overload in health-care systems, economic contraction due to social and travel restrictions, widespread job losses — and reports that elected politicians have misled the public by ignoring the advice of scientific advisers.

Will faith in democracy rebound?

So is this the beginning of a new systemic crisis for democracy in general? Perhaps. Yet our research has discovered two additional findings, and a partial silver lining.

First, trust in democracy has tumbled sharply in the past, and then recovered.

...Second, a minority of countries have bucked the negative trend in democratic satisfaction of recent decades. It’s interesting to note that many of those same countries have mounted an effective coronavirus response. Where public institutions are effective, this reinforces confidence in the democratic system as a whole. Democracies such as South Korea and Taiwan have implemented rapid and effective responses to the pandemic — and may be reaping the rewards, as President Moon Jae-in’s landslide victory in last month’s South Korean elections shows.

Finally, there is the possibility that dealing with the novel coronavirus will dent the rise of populism, as voters become disillusioned with the performance in office of leaders such as President Trump or Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and return to establishment parties and policy experts. Already, there are tentative signs that some publics are becoming more favorable toward democratic governments following scientific policy advice, and toward medical and public health authorities in general.

Once our next round of pooled global data on democratic attitudes has been processed later this year, will the results indicate a new phase of democratic malaise, as pandemic-related blame and division set in? Or will there instead be signs of an unexpected recovery in public faith in democracy? Stay tuned.

DS248

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#2484066 14-May-2020 21:51

It ain't over yet.

HK reported two local cases yesterday, the first local cases there in 22 days. A 66 year old woman and her five-year-old granddaughter (who did not live with her). Given the 22 days gap since the last known local case, it will be interesting to know the source of the infection, if they are able to identify it. All arrivals from overseas are quarantined for 14 days so that seems unlikely to be the source?

Could be a challenge - around 800 households in one housing estate and 60 in a second apartment block are being tested. Probably more concerning, the woman participated in community activities, visited markets, and travelled daily between the two buildings by minibus so there appears potential for a cluster of cases from this.

https://www.news.gov.hk/eng/2020/05/20200513/20200513_174108_041.html?type=category&name=covid19

DS248

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#2484138 14-May-2020 22:42

Public Health England approves Roche test for Covid-19 antibodies (99.8% specific/100% sensitive lab test, not the home kit variety). Already approved by the EU and US FDA.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/13/public-health-england-approves-roche-test-for-coronavirus-antibodies

At a minimum, these should be used here to validate/confirm our Probable cases.

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KrazyKid

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#2484144 14-May-2020 22:57

I am sure NZ will start using these tests. We are using currently using antibody tests to eradicate m bovis in the national cow herd. This is good news and will help us with covid.

DS248

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#2484315 15-May-2020 11:01

DS248:

It ain't over yet.

HK reported two local cases yesterday, the first local cases there in 22 days. ...

Not just HK. Western Australia just had its second local case in two days. Prior to that the last local case in WA had been on 19 April, 23 days earlier.

Two examples highlighting that even 3 weeks free of local cases does not ensure that an area is free of the virus.

tdgeek

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#2484322 15-May-2020 11:11

Yep, its a long task. Here we went to Level 4 then some wanted to get to Level 2 pronto. Thank goodness that did not happen

Fred99

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#2484353 15-May-2020 12:05

DS248:

Public Health England approves Roche test for Covid-19 antibodies (99.8% specific/100% sensitive lab test, not the home kit variety). Already approved by the EU and US FDA.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/13/public-health-england-approves-roche-test-for-coronavirus-antibodies

At a minimum, these should be used here to validate/confirm our Probable cases.

Well yes - but so long as "probables" are treated the same (self isolation etc) as "confirmed", then doing that doesn't achieve much here right now. Might be interesting though to test contacts of known cases and clusters that never tested positive or displayed symptoms, or as a backup in a few cases.

99.8% average specificity is useless for population screening in NZ. At known population infection rates, you'd need better than 99.97% specificity to see anything above background noise from false positives even if you included all the confirmed cases in the population study. More useful in the UK - but even there only 0.3% of the population has had diagnosed infection so 0.2% "false positives" is a lot of noise. If you assume that maybe the real infection figure is 1%, so serology tests will give ~ 1 in 5 "false positives", then there's huge risk if this kind of testing is used to assume immunity and to send "recovered" people back into risky environments. (that's not mentioned in that article - but has been commented on regularly as a method to get people "back to work" / create some "immunity passport" system).

Fred99

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#2484358 15-May-2020 12:15

KrazyKid: I am sure NZ will start using these tests. We are using currently using antibody tests to eradicate m bovis in the national cow herd. This is good news and will help us with covid.

I believe M.Bovis is a chronic infection - rather than an acute infection for which recovery means you're no longer spreading pathogens.

(IOW serology testing can be used to remove contagious cows - serology tests for C-19 are going to find mainly "recovered" and no longer infectious humans)

tdgeek

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#2484380 15-May-2020 12:29

Interesting, exactly the same basis as hand washing.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/121524341/coronavirus-scientists-call-for-research-on-whether-mouthwash-can-prevent-spread-of-covid19

MikeB4

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#2484386 15-May-2020 12:32

I had to go into the city today for a client, people seem to have forgotten social distancing.

DS248

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#2484438 15-May-2020 13:33

Update to table comparing Covid-19 stats for NZ and the more populated Australian states. Plus a second table with additional info and analysis.

Putting in this thread since the trans Tasman bubble is topical at the moment.

Observations:

Proportion of imported cases significantly higher in AU. Means each imported case on average generated significantly fewer local cases in AU
NZ local cases per capita comparable with NSW and Victoria, significantly higher than QLD, SA and WA
Proportion of active cases higher in Victoria and especially NSW but significantly lower in the other three states (just 1 active case in SA, 7 in WA)
CFR in the same ball park, except QLD significantly lower
Deaths per capita is higher in NSW but lower than NZ in all the other states
Tests per capita in NZ very similar to NSW, SA and Victoria. Higher than QLD and WA. Local cases per capita much lower in those two states
Proportion of cases with Unknown source + Pending investigation results in NZ is about half the NSW and Victoria proportions but is higher than for QLD, SA and WA

The numbers of local cases in the table are totals since the start of pandemic. The numbers of local cases over the last week or two is more relevant at this time. In that regard, only Victoria has had more per capita than NZ over the last two weeks due to the recent Melbourne meat processing facility outbreak. NSW is comparable with NZ and QLD a bit lower but all other states have had significantly fewer cases. SA (& ACT) no local cases in the last 3 weeks. WA also went 3 weeks without any local case but have had two in the last two days.

Overall NZ and AU similar - some areas of AU closer to elimination but the more populous eastern states quite comparable with NZ.

Sources

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/latest-updates.aspx
https://www.qld.gov.au/health/conditions/health-alerts/coronavirus-covid-19/current-status/statistics
https://www.covid-19.sa.gov.au/home/dashboard#daily
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/359bca83a1264e3fb8d3b6f0a028d768
https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-update

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