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Dingbatt:
Some great mathematical modelling being done. Has anyone factored in that the ‘fuel’ cattle use is biomass and as such is renewable?
there is a great book about back of the envelope large scale calculations called 'Consider a spherical cow"
Matthew
MikeB4: The biggest worry with cows is the prospect that they may get guns
Ge0rge:MikeB4: The biggest worry with cows is the prospect that they may get guns
And then of course the chickens will get 'choppers!
We WILL fight for Bovine freedom...
What kind of degredation occurs to your average EV's batteries when using a fast charger? If it were say 500, you went on a road trip to/from Auckland and Wellington with 3 recharges each way then that 1 trip is like a 1% degredation of your battery.
Also for many people (myself included), they don't want to be hanging out at a fast charger wasting time and being a slave to their cars for 20 mins multiple times during the journey.
We recently bought an Outlander PHEV which means when we do go on longer trips we can still drive around with the flexibility of petrol and can use the plugin for our daily living around town just by slow charging overnight.
Beccara:
Heres an interesting breakdown and modeling of GHG emissions from farms IN NZ, We should keep in mind that NZ dairy and beef are amoung the most efficient and "greenest" in the world so global modeling doesn't always fit
https://www.mpi.govt.nz/dmsdocument/28329/direct
Fair comment... my cow numbers were for feedlot dairy cattle in the USA.
However, your document says "However, across the survey farms there was no difference between low [grass-only] and high [supplemental feed] farm systems in total GHG emissions per kg MS (i.e. the carbon footprint of MS)." i.e. that supplementary feed doesn't increase GHGs per kg Milk Solids. So I'd say that there wouldn't be a huge difference between grass-fed cows and feedlot-fed cows. OTOH, there's probably a lot of GHGs produced in growing and transporting the feed to cattle on feedlots. And, as someone else pointed out, the grass that the the cow eats is a CO2 consumer, so the Carbon never leaves the farm.
And the car numbers didn't include GHGs produced in extracting/refining/distributing petrol.
But (fortunately) the question was how a cow compared to a car.
And, again, these are ballpark figures. There's big assumptions and simplifications.
frankv:
And, again, these are ballpark figures. There's big assumptions and simplifications.
Its a fair assumption to say its huge I feel
MikeB4:
We WILL fight for Bovine freedom...
and hold our large heads high...
I'm a geek, a gamer, a dad, a Quic user, and an IT Professional. I have a full rack home lab, size 15 feet, an epic beard and Asperger's. I'm a bit of a Cypherpunk, who believes information wants to be free and the Net interprets censorship as damage and routes around it. If you use my Quic signup you can also use the code R570394EKGIZ8 for free setup.
Regarding the Cow vs Car thing, the big thing to note is that cars are being targeted first as the low hanging fruit.
Without a scientific breakthrough, there is no way to reduce the emmisions of cow's massively without dropping the number of cows. NZ's beefstock and dairy industries are high export earners, and (partially dairy) generate very high GDP per worker. Getting rid of the cows will mean a big drop in the economic performance of the country, worsening our GDP per person, which likely will have a flow on impact to our standard of living as a whole.
On the other hand, putting in incentives that make the buyer of a ford ranger more likey to pick the (more powerfull & more economical) 2.0 Twin turbo, over the 3.2L power-plant will have minimal impact on the wealth of the country (and likely save owners money on fuel over the live of the vehicle). Likewise For somebody cross shopping a model 3 with a BMW 3 series, Audi Q series with an audi etron, i30 with a Ioniq electric etc...
It is logical for us to go after low hanging fruit first, and making the light vehicle fleet cleaner is that low hanging fruit.
Zeon:
What kind of degredation occurs to your average EV's batteries when using a fast charger? If it were say 500, you went on a road trip to/from Auckland and Wellington with 3 recharges each way then that 1 trip is like a 1% degredation of your battery.
Also for many people (myself included), they don't want to be hanging out at a fast charger wasting time and being a slave to their cars for 20 mins multiple times during the journey.
We recently bought an Outlander PHEV which means when we do go on longer trips we can still drive around with the flexibility of petrol and can use the plugin for our daily living around town just by slow charging overnight.
There is more degradation fast charging, but it isn't heaps, especially on cars with active pack cooling.
My Nissan leaf (Pretty much the worst Pure EV for battery degradation due to no pack cooling) has 1140 Quick charges logged and state of health is above 75%. Should note that the Nissan leaf is not really suitable for trips requiring more than two quick charges in a day as the pack gets too hot.
Re the Auckland to wellington trip. Something like a Kona could do that with only a single stop in Turangi or Wairuru.
Re the PHEV, obviously a great selection for your use case. The are rated at something like 44g co2/km (in the real world the number is very dependent on electric / petrol mix), so will be substantial winners under the clean car standard.
Scott3:
Regarding the Cow vs Car thing, the big thing to note is that cars are being targeted first as the low hanging fruit.
Without a scientific breakthrough, there is no way to reduce the emmisions of cow's massively without dropping the number of cows. NZ's beefstock and dairy industries are high export earners, and (partially dairy) generate very high GDP per worker. Getting rid of the cows will mean a big drop in the economic performance of the country, worsening our GDP per person, which likely will have a flow on impact to our standard of living as a whole.
On the other hand, putting in incentives that make the buyer of a ford ranger more likey to pick the (more powerfull & more economical) 2.0 Twin turbo, over the 3.2L power-plant will have minimal impact on the wealth of the country (and likely save owners money on fuel over the live of the vehicle). Likewise For somebody cross shopping a model 3 with a BMW 3 series, Audi Q series with an audi etron, i30 with a Ioniq electric etc...
It is logical for us to go after low hanging fruit first, and making the light vehicle fleet cleaner is that low hanging fruit.
They are low hanging fruit but they will take an age to ripen. Yes you and I could buy a more fuel efficient car tomorrow or an EV, but how long will this take to achieve e a large benefit? Decades for EV's and a decade + for anything else. EV's have been here for many years, dirt cheap fuel no RUC but there is still only 17000 out of 4 million light vehicles. If we could incentivise all of us dropping our mileage by 20% that would be massive. Equivalent to putting 800.000 EV's on the road tomorrow. Yes, buying a single low emission or no emission car is quite easy, but getting a real hit to emissions isnt
Same with cows. If we could all reduce dairy and beef eating by 10% to 20%, that's a big hit. It could literally be done tomorrow
tdgeek:
They are low hanging fruit but they will take an age to ripen. Yes you and I could buy a more fuel efficient car tomorrow or an EV, but how long will this take to achieve e a large benefit? Decades for EV's and a decade + for anything else. EV's have been here for many years, dirt cheap fuel no RUC but there is still only 17000 out of 4 million light vehicles. If we could incentivise all of us dropping our mileage by 20% that would be massive. Equivalent to putting 800.000 EV's on the road tomorrow. Yes, buying a single low emission or no emission car is quite easy, but getting a real hit to emissions isnt
Same with cows. If we could all reduce dairy and beef eating by 10% to 20%, that's a big hit. It could literally be done tomorrow
Don't forget aircraft. There is up to 20,000 aircraft in flight globally at any given time that is pumping a lot of green house gases into the upper atmosphere. The world has to reconsider not only local travel by road but air travel and sea travel.
MikeB4:
Don't forget aircraft. There is up to 20,000 aircraft in flight globally at any given time that is pumping a lot of green house gases into the upper atmosphere. The world has to reconsider not only local travel by road but air travel and sea travel.
In theory half of these could be replaced by electric:
https://qz.com/1943592/electric-airplanes-are-getting-close-to-a-commercial-breakthrough/
(Then there have been big efficiency gains between new generation aircraft and planes over the past couple of decades, and possibilities for conventional jet engines to use carbon neutral biofuels etc).
Sea Freight is much lower CO2 equivalent emissions than most people seem to expect, it's about half (grammes of CO2 per tonne freight per kilometer) than diesel electric rail, which is in turn far more efficient that trucking. I expect biofuels could replace bunker oil.
MikeB4:
Don't forget aircraft. There is up to 20,000 aircraft in flight globally at any given time that is pumping a lot of green house gases into the upper atmosphere. The world has to reconsider not only local travel by road but air travel and sea travel.
Fully agree
Everything has to be considered. Cars are just one thing. Aircraft as you say, cows, everything that emits has to be looked at. While we wont get all aircraft, as one example, batteried up by next week, we need to be working on it. But what we can achieve right now, we need to be going hard, but we dont seem to be. Cut mileage including air traffic by 20%, catch a bus, walk, rideshare, pooling, take the motorbike, cut back on meat and dairy by 20%, buy stuff that made local if possible (less freight) all of these can affect emissions today, but we dont seem to want to push that. CCS is a good thing, we will be forced to save fuel as we are forced to buy a lower fuel use vehicle, thats good, but its a very slow burn, pun not intended.
Dairy is a biggie, if the world can cut back dairy and beef by 20% globally we can reduce the stock levels by 20%. Thats very easy and its real. But Dairy Ltd and Beef Ltd wont wear it, that's the problem
Fred99:
In theory half of these could be replaced by electric:
https://qz.com/1943592/electric-airplanes-are-getting-close-to-a-commercial-breakthrough/
(Then there have been big efficiency gains between new generation aircraft and planes over the past couple of decades, and possibilities for conventional jet engines to use carbon neutral biofuels etc).
Sea Freight is much lower CO2 equivalent emissions than most people seem to expect, it's about half (grammes of CO2 per tonne freight per kilometer) than diesel electric rail, which is in turn far more efficient that trucking. I expect biofuels could replace bunker oil.
When can we do those planes? A year or two? otherwise its yet another excellent idea that doesnt help us now. So while that's unavoidable, why dont we do things today that can save emissions today while the scientists potter away with the aircraft etc? Its like if we are seen to be on to it, it doesnt matter what actually is saved today and tomorrow
tdgeek:
Dairy is a biggie, if the world can cut back dairy and beef by 20% globally we can reduce the stock levels by 20%.
Increasing efficiently can help too. breading bigger beef animals and more efficient dairy cows can mean you can produce more from fewer animals,
Over the last 15 years, NZ milk per cow has gone from 3700 litres/year to 4300 litres/year, That's a 20%+ increase in milk production per cow,
Yes feed stock/grass consumption will have increased and so will have Co2/animal , but it wont be a purely linear relationship, ( 5 cows +20% will likely have lower Co2 than 6 cows)
tdgeek:
When can we do those planes? A year or two?
Nope - it'll be longer than that - think how long timescale to get a new jet plane certified from design stage, and that's starting from using known or proven technology / design and tweaking it.
That article suggests that present CO2 from aircraft is ~2% of global emissions, but the forecast increase based on past growth looks grim.
"By 2035, investment bank UBS estimates, the aviation industry will be 25% hybrid or fully electric".
There are other possibilities:
https://www.wired.com/story/could-carbon-dioxide-be-turned-into-jet-fuel/
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