Clean car package

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#2742353 11-Jul-2021 09:54

Scott3:

Finally a EV subsidy on used imports is extremely unusual globally. I think a major reason for it being in place is political partiality.

Dave Vinsen, the Vehicle Importers Association guy in that clip, said the government didn't listen when the VIA told them the feebate wouldn't work as far as they were concerned. Events have shown that to be true. Wealth transfer from New Zealand to Japan. Another example of money being wasted on the altar of political ideology.

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RobDickinson

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#2742354 11-Jul-2021 10:00

It has a few issues.

Primarily it doesn't affect new EV's at all, no increase in demand, production, reduction of costs etc at all.

It doesn't increase the number of EV's in the world at all either.

And the supply of used EV's just doesn't really exist.

UK has more but they don't have the same turnover /sales on used vehicle exports, and used prices of EV's in UK is solid.

And we end up with all the worn old leafs that will need pack refreshes one day, hopefully we can fix that one...

mudguard

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#2742367 11-Jul-2021 11:39

RobDickinson: P3 has like 20 memories for track mode settings

That's pretty cool

Scott3

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#2742483 11-Jul-2021 15:08

Technofreak:

Dave Vinsen, the Vehicle Importers Association guy in that clip, said the government didn't listen when the VIA told them the feebate wouldn't work as far as they were concerned. Events have shown that to be true. Wealth transfer from New Zealand to Japan. Another example of money being wasted on the altar of political ideology.

We really need a decent period of time of the new settings to be in place before we draw conclusions about the success or failure of the used car subsidy. Ideally until the covid-19 related tightness in supply in the japan auctions is resolved.

As I mentioned above, we are unlikely to move prices around in the UK, so the full subsidy benefit should be carried by the NZ buyers of grey market export from that market. The likes of i.d.3, MG station wagon, Honda-e, and other intersting stuff we don't get here, but can fit under the price cap. Same might also apply to Hong Kong and Singapore (where Tesla model 3's get the same CCS charging port used here, rather than the single phase proprietary port used in the USA).

For Japan we will have an impact on pricing at the auctions, so quite a bit of the benefit of the subsidy will go to japan. But this is not money going down the drain. NZ is not the only place competing for used EV's from japan. We compete with many other countries, and of course Japanese domestic used car buyers. Being willing to pay more will get a greater share of the cars coming our way which is the ultimate goal.

There is also a decent chance that some operators will set up an operation that buy's new car's in japan (or UK etc) collecting the Japan government subsidy, then immediately exporting them as used cars to NZ, collecting the government used EV subsidy. This is great for NZ as we get to take advantage of the offshore subsidy that we haven't even paid for. Perhaps the Nissan ARIYA would be a strong candidate on launch.

RobDickinson: It has a few issues.

Primarily it doesn't affect new EV's at all, no increase in demand, production, reduction of costs etc at all.

It doesn't increase the number of EV's in the world at all either.

And the supply of used EV's just doesn't really exist.

UK has more but they don't have the same turnover /sales on used vehicle exports, and used prices of EV's in UK is solid.

And we end up with all the worn old leafs that will need pack refreshes one day, hopefully we can fix that one...

I don't think it is fair to say that the used EV subsidy doesn't affect new EV's at all. An obvious example would be the re-export of pritty much new cars from Japan and UK. Like the below ex-demo i.d.3

https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/motors/cars/volkswagen/other/listing/3089744917

Also if it pushes up residuals / tightens used availability of EV's in japan, new car purchases will look more attractive, and lease rates will drop in that market. Increasing the Sales of New EV's in that market.

It is a valid question if pushing up demand for New EV's in other countries via our used EV subsidy is an ideal outcome for NZ as a whole.

As a general rule the new car sellers spend far more money marketing their products, and offer better warranties & support than used car importers. On the other hand if VW doesn't want to officially sell it's i.d.3 here, and honda dosn't want to sell it's honda-e, grey market imports are the only way for consumers to get their hand on these models. And we need a wide range of models to fit wide ranging car tastes.

The issue with old leaf's is very real (especially 2011 - 2013 with old, faster degrading battery chemistry). NZ spending $3450 to subsidize the import of at 2011 leaf with a 60% state of health battery isn't really money well spent. That car is currently basically limited to being a city commuter / shopping basket, would be expected to continue to degrade at about 5 percentage points a year. Apparently when the packs get below about 45% health the odds of random cell failure's get kinda high. So that car only has about 3 years of (low range) life remaining.

Doesn't look likely that there will be a cost effective, high volume source of replacement packs for Nissan leaf's in the next few years. In short, every automotive grade pack that gets used in a vehicle picks up a multi thousand dollar subsidy in much of the OECD, and if sold in europe helps the company avoid massive fines for excess fleet emissions. Given that there isn't a surplus of automotive grade batteries at the moment, selling them as a loose part isn't very attractive compared to putting them in a new car.

I think capping the used EV subsidy to cars under 5 years old (by date of first registration) would be a good idea. Means that we can be fairly confident there is still decent life left in the cars, and avoid taking away other countries trash...

Technofreak

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#2742490 11-Jul-2021 15:57

Scott3:

For Japan we will have an impact on pricing at the auctions, so quite a bit of the benefit of the subsidy will go to japan. But this is not money going down the drain. NZ is not the only place competing for used EV's from japan. We compete with many other countries, and of course Japanese domestic used car buyers. Being willing to pay more will get a greater share of the cars coming our way which is the ultimate goal.

I didn't think supply of second hand EV cars was the problem. I thought the ultimate goal was to make EV cars more affordable so that more motorists could afford them. Having more cars at a higher price doesn't address the problem as I see it.

There is also a decent chance that some operators will set up an operation that buy's new car's in japan (or UK etc) collecting the Japan government subsidy, then immediately exporting them as used cars to NZ, collecting the government used EV subsidy. This is great for NZ as we get to take advantage of the offshore subsidy that we haven't even paid for. Perhaps the Nissan ARIYA would be a strong candidate on launch.

If this were to happen how long do you think it would be before the Japanese government made changes to their subsidy scheme to stop an exporter taking advantage of the subsidy?

The issue with old leaf's is very real (especially 2011 - 2013 with old, faster degrading battery chemistry). NZ spending $3450 to subsidize the import of at 2011 leaf with a 60% state of health battery isn't really money well spent. That car is currently basically limited to being a city commuter / shopping basket, would be expected to continue to degrade at about 5 percentage points a year. Apparently when the packs get below about 45% health the odds of random cell failure's get kinda high. So that car only has about 3 years of (low range) life remaining.

Doesn't look likely that there will be a cost effective, high volume source of replacement packs for Nissan leaf's in the next few years. In short, every automotive grade pack that gets used in a vehicle picks up a multi thousand dollar subsidy in much of the OECD, and if sold in europe helps the company avoid massive fines for excess fleet emissions. Given that there isn't a surplus of automotive grade batteries at the moment, selling them as a loose part isn't very attractive compared to putting them in a new car.

I think capping the used EV subsidy to cars under 5 years old (by date of first registration) would be a good idea. Means that we can be fairly confident there is still decent life left in the cars, and avoid taking away other countries trash

You make some good points. We do run the risk of being a dumping ground for old batteries and old technology batteries. Plus we don't and may never have the ability to recycle those batteries due to the economies of scale that will be required.

The 5 year limit would help but even then I wonder if that's too long. Then there's the problem of shrinking the size of the available cars in used EV car markets by reducing the acceptable age.

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Dingbatt

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#2742522 11-Jul-2021 17:21

Scott3:

Note that both the UK and japan government have already paid decent subsidies on the EV's when they were sold new their. NZ sneaking in and buying up 2-4 year old used EV's mean their governments only get 2-4 years of emission reduction benefits from having those cars on the road. NZ get the rest of the vehicles life (10+ years).

So the effects of emissions reductions are regional? Otherwise the UK and Japanese governments are still getting the benefit of an EV no matter where it operates in the world. Unless of course it’s all about the virtue signalling?

“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996

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#2742586 11-Jul-2021 18:49

Dingbatt:

So the effects of emissions reductions are regional? Otherwise the UK and Japanese governments are still getting the benefit of an EV no matter where it operates in the world. Unless of course it’s all about the virtue signalling?

no idea if it is or not.

but the biggest issue with my regional air quality is the burner in people's houses. they burn everything not just wood. and the smell of coal ... and second is the diesel heavy vehicles that bring me my iphone and brocolli.

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nzkiwiman

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#2743155 12-Jul-2021 14:25

Got my Model 3 on Wednesday, put in my request for the rebate on Thursday and now the waiting game begins to see if/when it comes through

RobDickinson

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#2743158 12-Jul-2021 14:28

Its taking 5-6 days or so from what I have seen

RobDickinson

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#2743964 14-Jul-2021 10:53

Ford - reacts to clean car package, new models and reduced prices

https://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/125745902/ford-introduces-plugin-escape-drops-price-of-electrified-vans

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#2743965 14-Jul-2021 10:54

Good news!

RobDickinson

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#2743968 14-Jul-2021 11:13

The PHEV transit is looking like it might be a great deal.

Currently $99,900+orc

They will reduce that to below $80k inc ORC

Current basic diesel model (7.3L/10km) is $68k+ORC

You get $5k rebate so the PHEV will cost you $75k or less, less than $7k difference, and it does 56km ev and 2.7L/100km...

And no RUC until 2024..!