BMW says Petrol is not dead (yet)

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meow
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#2904785 21-Apr-2022 11:23

stocksp:

Interesting. Is this a fact or a 'fact'. Source?

Afraid not fact. Has been a rather long-standing conspiracy but it wouldn't surprise me at all if this sort of thing happens behind the scenes. Each ICE is ongoing revenue for big oil.

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Rikkitic

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#2904793 21-Apr-2022 11:37

michaelmurfy:

stocksp:

Interesting. Is this a fact or a 'fact'. Source?

Afraid not fact. Has been a rather long-standing conspiracy but it wouldn't surprise me at all if this sort of thing happens behind the scenes. Each ICE is ongoing revenue for big oil.

See 'Who Killed the Electric Car' for details.

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#2904814 21-Apr-2022 12:04

MikeAqua:

Someone's tossed you a bunch of red herrings on the fuel age thing. Blend it 50/50 with fresh fuel and no worries - in a 4 stroke engine.

The ICE was mainly replacing the horse. If you think car emissions/accidents/reliability issues are bad, imagine a city full of horses.

Electric cars initially had the somewhat fundamental problem of a lack of electric distribution. ICE overtook electric cars because of the ease of distributing petrol and because ICE soon outperformed them on anything other than a milk run.

Fuel injection has many benefits beyond carburettor elimination. Like performance or economy, reduced particulate emissions and being easier to spell than carburettor.

If you're constantly changing oil, something is wrong with your car or mechanic, lol. My turbo diesel only requires 15,000km oil changes. For most people that's 1 - 2 changes per year.

All the infrastructure built for ICE is usable by EVs too.

Like many technologies, ICE had unforeseen (at the time) consequences. That happens a lot. I wonder what the unforeseen consequences of EVs might be?

EVs certainly aren't a complete solution. They can be crashed (in fact they introduce some new hazards) and they can cause congestion, just as well as ICE cars do (maybe worse as cheaper running costs may provide an incentive not to use public transport). They produce some undesirable and some damaging emissions.

In a number of use cases, EVs make about as much sense as surfing cats. Zero direct greenhouse gas emissions is the only hands-down advantage of an EV.

I had fun writing that rant but there were also some serious bits to it. The horse was not 'mainly replaced' by the ICE. It was replaced by the horseless carriage. Like VHS and Blu-Ray, the unwashed masses were steered into an inferior technology which then led to the sprawling industrial octopus needed to keep it going. In 1900 an electric vehicle held the land speed record. In 1908 it won an urban race against petrol by about 10 minutes (https://www.ecowatch.com/electric-car-history-2650846267.html).

The serious point I was making is that if the unfathomable trillions of dollars that have been invested in ICE technology over the decades had gone into electric instead, electric vehicles would probably have unlimited range from 20 gram power sources today. The technology is rapidly catching up, but it would have gone so much further so much faster if it had received a fraction of the investment that has gone into exploding piston engines, most of which is necessary to keep the explosions from over-exploding and to compensate the destructive vibration forces of pistons scraping up and down inside metal cylinders while trying to contain the toxins spewing forth from the explosions. Who thinks up this stuff?

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MikeAqua

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#2904826 21-Apr-2022 12:45

Rikkitic:

I had fun writing that rant but there were also some serious bits to it. The horse was not 'mainly replaced' by the ICE. It was replaced by the horseless carriage. Like VHS and Blu-Ray, the unwashed masses were steered into an inferior technology which then led to the sprawling industrial octopus needed to keep it going. In 1900 an electric vehicle held the land speed record. In 1908 it won an urban race against petrol by about 10 minutes (https://www.ecowatch.com/electric-car-history-2650846267.html).

The serious point I was making is that if the unfathomable trillions of dollars that have been invested in ICE technology over the decades had gone into electric instead, electric vehicles would probably have unlimited range from 20 gram power sources today. The technology is rapidly catching up, but it would have gone so much further so much faster if it had received a fraction of the investment that has gone into exploding piston engines, most of which is necessary to keep the explosions from over-exploding and to compensate the destructive vibration forces of pistons scraping up and down inside metal cylinders while trying to contain the toxins spewing forth from the explosions. Who thinks up this stuff?

Horseless carriage is just an early term for a primitive automobile. They were powered by steam engines, electricity or ICE (or pedals if you stretch the definition). But ICE soon won out.

The ICE is really a remarkable piece of engineering.

It's easy to make EVs fast for motorsports. Range is the issue: -

For the first few season of Formula-E drivers would need two cars to complete the race - like the pony express. T
The first time Tesla went to Nurburg they couldn't complete a lap under full power - not one lap 😫.
The Nissan GTR (2009 Tech) is still faster around Nurburg than the Tesla 2021 record by close to half a minute (BTW that's a spanking).
In 2024 BEVs will be allowed at Le Mans. That's the ultimate test of car performance and it will be really interesting to see how many laps BEVs get through in 24hrs vs ICE and hybrid vehicles.

If humanity had gone down the electric car path, the world would definitely be in a different place with different problems and a different sprawling industrial octopus. Old tech batteries were pretty nasty - acids, heavy metals etc and we liked to burn coal to produce electricity. The modern BEV is a response to environmental concerns that only a very small % of people appreciated until the 1980s or later.

Whatever we developed we would still be subject to physics. So nothing would ever provide unlimited range on earth from a finite power source. A 20g battery wouldn't work because nothing has that much enthalpy to give.

Mike

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#2904854 21-Apr-2022 14:11

@MikeAqua, hear, hear!

our ancestors/predecessors weren't all dumb. there were reasons ICE got the investment. true, cost and convenience were among those, but if we can't hasten battery technology with everything we know now, it would have been a bigger struggle back then. you can't just dump resources on something and expect it to flourish faster. in any case, the ratio is never 1-for-1.

as for the average punter, one can get a $10000 ice vehicle and make a wellington-auckland drive in about 8.5 hours with a pee break and a fill up in taupo or thereabouts. no ev at that price range is readily available.

don't get me wrong. i'm all for the advancement of technology, and ultimately, hopefully, it will come. for now, one can't use what does not exist.

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#2906044 24-Apr-2022 13:00

stocksp:

michaelmurfy:

TThen there is the other fact - are they being paid by oil companies to keep pushing ICE vehicles?

Somewhat related:

Petrol is not dead yet, but its days are numbered.

Interesting. Is this a fact or a 'fact'. Source?

Probably fact, since oil is a non renewable resource........

Somehow I doubt "environmentally friendly" is on the list of features BMW drivers look for in a new vehicle.

SomeoneSomewhere

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#2906057 24-Apr-2022 13:57

nitro:

@MikeAqua, hear, hear!

our ancestors/predecessors weren't all dumb. there were reasons ICE got the investment. true, cost and convenience were among those, but if we can't hasten battery technology with everything we know now, it would have been a bigger struggle back then. you can't just dump resources on something and expect it to flourish faster. in any case, the ratio is never 1-for-1.

as for the average punter, one can get a $10000 ice vehicle and make a wellington-auckland drive in about 8.5 hours with a pee break and a fill up in taupo or thereabouts. no ev at that price range is readily available.

don't get me wrong. i'm all for the advancement of technology, and ultimately, hopefully, it will come. for now, one can't use what does not exist.

I agree with the first part. A lot of the tech that makes EVs viable now is spinoff from other industries, and wasn't really useful in vehicles until it was already well advanced. Semiconductors are a classic example.

I think your example is a little contrived, though. No-one is spending $10k on a vehicle for a one-off trip. If you're doing it once, hire a car, and an EV and ICE are probably near parity. If it's a regular thing, you need to look at fuel and maintenance over a few years. It's pretty well established that EVs have significantly higher upfront costs and significantly lower running costs, but where the boundary is depends a lot on specific circumstances and changes pretty rapidly.

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Dingbatt

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#2906126 24-Apr-2022 15:11

K8Toledo:

Probably fact, since oil is a non renewable resource........

Somehow I doubt "environmentally friendly" is on the list of features BMW drivers look for in a new vehicle.

But oil is a renewable resource. It just takes a few million years for the sugars produced by combining water and CO2 using energy from the sun to go through the food chain, fall to the bottom of the ocean, be compressed and turn into oil.* 😉

Because it now appears we aren’t anywhere near “peak oil”, what does it matter if it’s renewable or not?

Or do you mean it’s not part of the short carbon cycle? CO2 sequestered millions of years ago is not part of that closed loop.*

Not all BMW drivers are the same.*

* Probably fact.

“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996

K8Toledo

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#2906131 24-Apr-2022 15:33

Dingbatt:

K8Toledo:

Probably fact, since oil is a non renewable resource........

Somehow I doubt "environmentally friendly" is on the list of features BMW drivers look for in a new vehicle.

But oil is a renewable resource. It just takes a few million years for the sugars produced by combining water and CO2 using energy from the sun to go through the food chain, fall to the bottom of the ocean, be compressed and turn into oil.* 😉

Because it now appears we aren’t anywhere near “peak oil”, what does it matter if it’s renewable or not?

Or do you mean it’s not part of the short carbon cycle? CO2 sequestered millions of years ago is not part of that closed loop.*

Not all BMW drivers are the same.*

* Probably fact.

* OK, if you want to split hairs - billions of years from now our Sun will destroy Earth and all life on it, and the Universe will tear itself apart.

So with that in mind I'm not sure you could class oil as renewable. ;)

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#2906134 24-Apr-2022 15:54

Yes. Our local star is the ultimate non-renewable energy source. Once it’s supply of hydrogen runs out, it will be /\/\/\______________

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Tinkerisk

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#2906142 24-Apr-2022 16:10

The undoubtedly best form of energy is the saved form of energy - that's a fact. And as long as everyone sets off for work in their own carriage (whether electric or not) and blathers on about driving comfort that weighs tons, we won't have to worry any more about the technology (or rather ideology) used. Once the Chinese and Indians make the same insane mobility claims (which would be their moral right), we can forget the whole thing anyway.

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#2906148 24-Apr-2022 16:36

Tinkerisk:

The undoubtedly best form of energy is the saved form of energy - that's a fact. And as long as everyone sets off for work in their own carriage (whether electric or not) and blathers on about driving comfort that weighs tons, we won't have to worry any more about the technology (or rather ideology) used. Once the Chinese and Indians make the same insane mobility claims (which would be their moral right), we can forget the whole thing anyway.

I think you’re in Germany aren’t you. Germans must be so grateful for the energy they saved by decommissioning their nuclear power plants. Just as well they can rely on Russian gas to keep the the lights on and their homes warm…….Oops.🥴

“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996

Tinkerisk

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#2906155 24-Apr-2022 17:15

Dingbatt:

Tinkerisk:

The undoubtedly best form of energy is the saved form of energy - that's a fact. And as long as everyone sets off for work in their own carriage (whether electric or not) and blathers on about driving comfort that weighs tons, we won't have to worry any more about the technology (or rather ideology) used. Once the Chinese and Indians make the same insane mobility claims (which would be their moral right), we can forget the whole thing anyway.

I think you’re in Germany aren’t you. Germans must be so grateful for the energy they saved by decommissioning their nuclear power plants. Just as well they can rely on Russian gas to keep the the lights on and their homes warm…….Oops.🥴

You mix up the ratio of an individual with politics which an individual can‘t change alone.

My goodness, a country with a population 2.5 times that of my city. New Zealand's main exports to Germany are agricultural and forestry products, especially sheep and game meat, fruit, dairy products and wool. The main imports from Germany are vehicles, machinery and pharmaceutical products - from the FritzBoxes via the Boschs to the BMWs.

From the very beginning, Germany has supported the conclusion of a free trade agreement between New Zealand and the European Union, which has been under negotiation since 2018.

Now let's imagine interrupting this flow of goods. What would be the greater impact? The food or the technology to produce it? But some ordinary consumers still believe they live alone on an island that, geologically alone, would actually make a wider horizon possible.

Well done, you are out! And you can build your own nuclear power plants to produce the technology yourself. :-))

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#2906162 24-Apr-2022 17:41

MikeAqua:

In 2024 BEVs will be allowed at Le Mans. That's the ultimate test of car performance and it will be really interesting to see how many laps BEVs get through in 24hrs vs ICE and hybrid vehicles.

Being contrary, I'd like to see how both BEVs and ICSs get by with both replacing their fuel - the petrol and the battery.

At the moment, an ICE race car can fill up in seconds with the special tank systems that are used in races, as opposed to the 2-3 minutes it takes a regular car.

A similar race-course fast battery swap could definitely improve on the few minutes that existing battery swap tech takes in places like China that use it successfully.

That would probably be a fairer comparison in a race environment, at least.

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#2906166 24-Apr-2022 17:52

SomeoneSomewhere:

I agree with the first part. A lot of the tech that makes EVs viable now is spinoff from other industries, and wasn't really useful in vehicles until it was already well advanced. Semiconductors are a classic example.

I think your example is a little contrived, though. No-one is spending $10k on a vehicle for a one-off trip. If you're doing it once, hire a car, and an EV and ICE are probably near parity. If it's a regular thing, you need to look at fuel and maintenance over a few years. It's pretty well established that EVs have significantly higher upfront costs and significantly lower running costs, but where the boundary is depends a lot on specific circumstances and changes pretty rapidly.

i see what you mean. but i never intended it to be a one-off trip.

the average car buyer in nz is likely to have such road trips throughout the life of the vehicle. certainly true for me and most people i know. hence, it does factor into my equation. i do the akl-wlg drive (and back) about twice a year.

what skews my example is that some of those trips might well be in range of current EVs, range anxiety not withstanding.

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