BMW says Petrol is not dead (yet)

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Batman

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#295752 20-Apr-2022 17:52

https://insideevs.com/news/580463/bmw-ceo-once-again-warns-going-all-electric-is-not-good-idea/

When you look at the technology coming out, the EV push, we must be careful because at the same time, you increase dependency on very few countries. If someone cannot buy an EV for some reason but needs a car, would you rather propose he continues to drive his old car forever? If you are not selling combustion engines anymore, someone else will."

Says CEO Oliver Zipse

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#2904493 20-Apr-2022 17:54

Yep. Oil burners vastly outweigh EV's

he is right

Batman

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#2904496 20-Apr-2022 18:02

until EU bans ICE ...

tdgeek

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#2904497 20-Apr-2022 18:12

Batman:

until EU bans ICE ...

You can ban ICE when EV is as affordable. Money talks.

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#2904500 20-Apr-2022 18:19

The two parts of his quote seem to be focussing on two different things - by "increase dependency on very few countries", I think he's talking about increasing BMW's dependency on fewer markets, because they might not be selling to certain areas if they can't produce ICE vehicles.

Yes, there are situations where even in 10-15 years EVs will not be at all suitable. But very very few of those are situations where a luxury sedan is practical... it's going to be more-or-less very remote locations, emergency vehicles (questionable), and that's about it. Locations where there simply isn't a mains power connection available, and you'd be charging with a fossil fuel generator anyway. That's pickup truck/ute territory, not BMW markets, except for maybe the local oligarch/warlord's personal wagon.

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#2904502 20-Apr-2022 18:23

tdgeek:

Batman:

until EU bans ICE ...

You can ban ICE when EV is as affordable. Money talks.

The point of regulation is typically to force/incentivise people & companies to do what is not the cheapest option. For example, fitting emissions control equipment even though it increases the cost of the car.

Also, more volume for EVs means better economies of scale, which helps reduce the price further.

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#2904510 20-Apr-2022 18:51

SomeoneSomewhere:

The point of regulation is typically to force/incentivise people & companies to do what is not the cheapest option. For example, fitting emissions control equipment even though it increases the cost of the car.

Also, more volume for EVs means better economies of scale, which helps reduce the price further.

100% but its not there yet by a long way. Start of the Bell Curve

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#2904534 20-Apr-2022 19:21

Petrol cars are right up there with teaching your cat to surf as one of the dumbest ideas ever. I never really thought about it until recently when I found myself having to dispose of a lot of old petrol someone else had accumulated. What the hell do you do with this stuff? It goes 'stale' so you can't use it as fuel. Who builds an entire technological civilisation on an energy source that goes off after a few months? Petrol is a horrible idea. ICE engines need constant oil changes to get rid of all the accumulated crud. They pollute the air and the roads and the soil. They require all kinds of complicated technology just to keep them running. Fuel injection had to be invented because carburettors started leaking if they weren't constantly used. Seals dry out and engines spit. Everything leaks. Surfing cats actually make more sense. Yet trillions have been spent around the world building infrastructure to keep this ridiculous form of transport going. An alien who saw it would think we were making a bad joke.

Compare that to electricity. Actually, you can't. It is like trying to compare a surfing cat to a dolphin. The first electric car was conceived as far back as the 1830s. Electrics were running rings around ICE up to the beginning of the 20th century. If a fraction of the money invested in the ICE dead end had gone into electric vehicles, they would be flying by now. Instead, the world is choking on toxic fumes as the atmosphere warms and icebergs melt. In the history of stupid ideas, this one beats even Mao telling his people to kill all the birds by banging pots and pans together!

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#2904549 20-Apr-2022 19:45

Petrol going stale isn't as bad of a problem here as it is in the US, as I believe the ethanol is a major contributor. Blend it in at a low ratio and you should be fine.

Internal combustion is used because it's still the most power-dense and energy-dense way to store energy and convert it to motion. Batteries are still rather inferior, and cars got a pretty significant performance, efficiency, and weight advantage from the shift from brushed DC motors and lead acid batteries, to electronically-commutated AC motors and lithium batteries.

ICEs overtook electric because improvements in metallurgy and machining made higher pressure higher speed engines feasible. The brushed DC motor basically hasn't changed since the 1830s either, and AC motors simply weren't an option until high-power semiconductors got cheap.

Ever wonder why steam locos got replaced by diesel (well, and overhead line electric)? Same deal.

If you think manufacturing fuel-injectors is hard try making IGBTs and the control gear to drive them.

But yeah, electric is now the future. It wasn't really an option for medium-distance vehicles until the 90s though.

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#2904562 20-Apr-2022 20:34

Rikkitic:

Petrol cars are right up there with teaching your cat to surf as one of the dumbest ideas ever. I never really thought about it until recently when I found myself having to dispose of a lot of old petrol someone else had accumulated. What the hell do you do with this stuff? It goes 'stale' so you can't use it as fuel. Who builds an entire technological civilisation on an energy source that goes off after a few months? Petrol is a horrible idea. ICE engines need constant oil changes to get rid of all the accumulated crud. They pollute the air and the roads and the soil. They require all kinds of complicated technology just to keep them running. Fuel injection had to be invented because carburettors started leaking if they weren't constantly used. Seals dry out and engines spit. Everything leaks. Surfing cats actually make more sense. Yet trillions have been spent around the world building infrastructure to keep this ridiculous form of transport going. An alien who saw it would think we were making a bad joke.

Compare that to electricity. Actually, you can't. It is like trying to compare a surfing cat to a dolphin. The first electric car was conceived as far back as the 1830s. Electrics were running rings around ICE up to the beginning of the 20th century. If a fraction of the money invested in the ICE dead end had gone into electric vehicles, they would be flying by now. Instead, the world is choking on toxic fumes as the atmosphere warms and icebergs melt. In the history of stupid ideas, this one beats even Mao telling his people to kill all the birds by banging pots and pans together!

Yes, but why are 99% of cars at car sales, ICE?

Rightly or wrongly, show me the money. Humans take the easy way, oil is cheaper. Ask Germany and their Russian oil and gas

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#2904566 20-Apr-2022 20:46

SomeoneSomewhere:

The two parts of his quote seem to be focussing on two different things - by "increase dependency on very few countries", I think he's talking about increasing BMW's dependency on fewer markets, because they might not be selling to certain areas if they can't produce ICE vehicles.

you completely missed the point.

China controls ~~95% of raw~~ 85% of rare earth material for EV batteries

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#2904588 20-Apr-2022 22:30

Batman:

China controls 95% of raw material for EV batteries

That is far from the truth. Please cite your resources when making claims like that. It is around 70% depending on what site you check just based on a quick search and that is just battery production in general, EV battery production is less again.

It is funny though. I can't help but think there is a conspiracy theory when statements like "Petrol is not dead" comes out. For example, EV's require less maintenance meaning (potentially) less money coming in to dealers etc for regular servicing then there is the environmental factor on top of this. Companies like BMW have simply not mastered EV's yet and I keep seeing outcry from these companies. Then there is the other fact - are they being paid by oil companies to keep pushing ICE vehicles?

Somewhat related:

Petrol is not dead yet, but its days are numbered.

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Batman

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#2904628 21-Apr-2022 07:32

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/china-frictions-steer-electric-automakers-away-rare-earth-magnets-2021-07-19/

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3130990/chinas-dominance-rare-earths-supply-growing-concern-west

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-23/china-cements-rare-earths-dominance-with-new-global-giant

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kensilverstein/2022/02/06/the-future-of-evs-depend-on-rare-earths-should-the-us-still-delegate-to-china/

sorry 85%. and i meant rare earth not raw

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#2904739 21-Apr-2022 10:08

Rikkitic:

Petrol cars are right up there with teaching your cat to surf as one of the dumbest ideas ever. I never really thought about it until recently when I found myself having to dispose of a lot of old petrol someone else had accumulated. What the hell do you do with this stuff? It goes 'stale' so you can't use it as fuel. Who builds an entire technological civilisation on an energy source that goes off after a few months? Petrol is a horrible idea. ICE engines need constant oil changes to get rid of all the accumulated crud. They pollute the air and the roads and the soil. They require all kinds of complicated technology just to keep them running. Fuel injection had to be invented because carburettors started leaking if they weren't constantly used. Seals dry out and engines spit. Everything leaks. Surfing cats actually make more sense. Yet trillions have been spent around the world building infrastructure to keep this ridiculous form of transport going. An alien who saw it would think we were making a bad joke.

Compare that to electricity. Actually, you can't. It is like trying to compare a surfing cat to a dolphin. The first electric car was conceived as far back as the 1830s. Electrics were running rings around ICE up to the beginning of the 20th century. If a fraction of the money invested in the ICE dead end had gone into electric vehicles, they would be flying by now. Instead, the world is choking on toxic fumes as the atmosphere warms and icebergs melt. In the history of stupid ideas, this one beats even Mao telling his people to kill all the birds by banging pots and pans together!

Someone's tossed you a bunch of red herrings on the fuel age thing. Blend it 50/50 with fresh fuel and no worries - in a 4 stroke engine.

The ICE was mainly replacing the horse. If you think car emissions/accidents/reliability issues are bad, imagine a city full of horses.

Electric cars initially had the somewhat fundamental problem of a lack of electric distribution. ICE overtook electric cars because of the ease of distributing petrol and because ICE soon outperformed them on anything other than a milk run.

Fuel injection has many benefits beyond carburettor elimination. Like performance or economy, reduced particulate emissions and being easier to spell than carburettor.

If you're constantly changing oil, something is wrong with your car or mechanic, lol. My turbo diesel only requires 15,000km oil changes. For most people that's 1 - 2 changes per year.

All the infrastructure built for ICE is usable by EVs too.

Like many technologies, ICE had unforeseen (at the time) consequences. That happens a lot. I wonder what the unforeseen consequences of EVs might be?

EVs certainly aren't a complete solution. They can be crashed (in fact they introduce some new hazards) and they can cause congestion, just as well as ICE cars do (maybe worse as cheaper running costs may provide an incentive not to use public transport). They produce some undesirable and some damaging emissions.

In a number of use cases, EVs make about as much sense as surfing cats. Zero direct greenhouse gas emissions is the only hands-down advantage of an EV.

Mike

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#2904771 21-Apr-2022 10:51

michaelmurfy:

Batman:

China controls 95% of raw material for EV batteries

TThen there is the other fact - are they being paid by oil companies to keep pushing ICE vehicles?

Somewhat related:

Petrol is not dead yet, but its days are numbered.

Interesting. Is this a fact or a 'fact'. Source?

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#2904775 21-Apr-2022 11:03

AFAIK China wants to electrify all their cars so no

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