The future of Car Manufacturers

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#2935025 27-Jun-2022 20:17

China, for all its darker aspects, can accomplish a great deal when it wants to, for good or evil.

At the moment they are on a trajectory to be 50% bev sales by end of this year or sometime early next.

India is already shifting, many of these other countries dont buy new vehicles anyhow, and often will be able to generate their own electricity on site easier than get refined petrol, its already a thing in Africa

gzt

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#2935077 27-Jun-2022 21:24

Kookoo: Europe, UK, Canada, Australia and NZ can switch to BEV all they want, the rest of the world doesn't have the infrastructure for BEV.

As mentioned already there's a lot going on in China. It's less well known USA is making some massive investments in this area too. Biden administration is looking at half a million chargers and a three billion investment to expand battery manufacturing:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/06/09/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-proposes-new-standards-for-national-electric-vehicle-charging-network/

Their only driver behind the switch will be the growing price of oil. That will no longer be a factor do due to the war in Ukraine. China and India will have gained access to extremely cheap Russian oil. This will prop up the ICE market in the two most populous countries for years to come. I'd say the companies at risk are the Chinese manufacturers who invested heavily in BEV, haven't acquired any noticeable overseas market share, and will see their domestic sales plummet as oil gets cheaper and cheaper. They will be probably end up getting propped up by the Chinese government.

As already pointed out these countries are well aware of both pollution and climate change at a policy level. Cheap oil? Imo there are a large number of logistics problems to solve first. Also, I think it won't be all that cheap at all.

elpenguino

3427 posts

Uber Geek

#2935078 27-Jun-2022 21:38

wellygary:

elpenguino:

Why is that depressing? Car as functional device instead of car as status symbol?

Because those sorts of vehicles have very little to offer markets like NZ etc, where transportation is much more generic rather than having a specialised device for commuting,

If these types of vehicles would sell here, why have all mew EVs in NZ progressively gained larger batteries, ( Leaf now 40Kwh min, etc) rather than continuing to produce smaller battery options (20kw etc) as lower cost points...

For the same reason the corolla is twice the size it was when it came out.

The car companies 'improve' every model by making it bigger and we're stupid enough to lap it up. Consume. Consume.

100km range is enough for most of our household running around so one of these micro cars would work. Shame about the safety aspect tho , there's a lot of rangers to run into.

As mentioned by Scott3, I wouldn't be surprised if several large manufacturers went to the wall. Over the years a lot of brands have ended up as a badge sold to someone else. Those who are slow to adapt better look out.

Most of the posters in this thread are just like chimpanzees on MDMA, full of feelings of bonhomie, joy, and optimism. Fred99 8/4/21

gzt

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#2935081 27-Jun-2022 21:47

One new thing is European companies may get ahead of Japanese companies as new models start to arrive.

driller2000

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#2935086 27-Jun-2022 23:09

This is an interesting read and takes an even wider view of mobility in general.

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/disruptive-trends-that-will-transform-the-auto-industry/de-DE

TL:DR

Lots of uncertainty ahead.

Evolve or die.

Both of which don't bode well for traditional manufacturers who are encumbered by massive inertia.

Handle9

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#2935091 28-Jun-2022 03:08

RobDickinson:

Also note its very difficult for one of these companies to just vanish. They are vast organisations with tens of thousands of direct employees and often many multiple of brands.

-------

We've also seen governments bail out large companies like GM because they are too big to fail.

The car industry is political. There's going to be winners and losers but most developed economies will fight to keep highly paid manufacturing jobs if they can.

RobDickinson

1524 posts

Uber Geek

#2935149 28-Jun-2022 08:40

gzt: One new thing is European companies may get ahead of Japanese companies as new models start to arrive.

They are significantly behind and moving slower...

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alasta

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#2935159 28-Jun-2022 09:00

I wonder if there will be some consolidation in the Japanese industry. If I recall correctly Toyota already has stakes in Mazda, Subaru and Suzuki, so perhaps they will swallow up those smaller companies like they did with Daihatsu. Effectively Toyota would then target different marques into different market segments much like VAG does with their various marques.

johno1234

2814 posts

Uber Geek

#2935166 28-Jun-2022 09:33

RobDickinson:

China, for all its darker aspects, can accomplish a great deal when it wants to, for good or evil.

At the moment they are on a trajectory to be 50% bev sales by end of this year or sometime early next.

India is already shifting, many of these other countries dont buy new vehicles anyhow, and often will be able to generate their own electricity on site easier than get refined petrol, its already a thing in Africa

Unfortunately China is busy building coal fired power stations to supply their growing electricity demand.

https://www.npr.org/2022/04/25/1094586702/china-promotes-coal-in-setback-for-efforts-to-cut-emissions

RobDickinson

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#2935167 28-Jun-2022 09:34

They are also growing their renewable (wind/solar) multiple times faster than anyone else

jfanning

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Ultimate Geek

#2935184 28-Jun-2022 10:10

Scott3:

I think it is likely that we see big players fail in a similar style to Kodak / Blackberry / Nokia.

Nokia is still a very large company, why do people still judge them on a business unit they sold?

Handsomedan

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#2935187 28-Jun-2022 10:11

RobDickinson:

They are also growing their renewable (wind/solar) multiple times faster than anyone else

They have some MASSIVE solar panel farms.

Like this:

The first Panda Solar Station started operating in Datong in August 2017 (Credit: Getty Images)

and this:

The solar farms in Qinghai make the most of the clear skies and beating sun above the Tibetan Plateau (Credit: Getty Images)

An older article but still relevant

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20180822-why-china-is-transforming-the-worlds-solar-energy

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Handsomedan

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#2935188 28-Jun-2022 10:13

jfanning:

Scott3:

I think it is likely that we see big players fail in a similar style to Kodak / Blackberry / Nokia.

Nokia is still a very large company, why do people still judge them on a business unit they sold?

Because to the public, they collapsed from view - they were the ubiquitous mobile phone player...and then they weren't.

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axxaa

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#2935277 28-Jun-2022 11:42

EV's are cars with a different powertrain, not that radically different. The car manufacturers will adapt.

RobDickinson

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Uber Geek

#2935281 28-Jun-2022 11:44

axxaa:

EV's are cars with a different powertrain, not that radically different.

And this view is why they will fail

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