EU Bans ICE cars from 2035. June 29 2022

Forums › Transport (cars, bikes and boats) › EU Bans ICE cars from 2035. June 29 2022

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#2936510 30-Jun-2022 14:20

Scott3:

Basically no chance on NZ moving sooner. We are not the kind of country to be an early mover with that kind of stuff, and also we don't really have the market power to push auto makers around like the UK does.

Agree,

NZ is shackled to the 2nd hand Japanese car fleet for around 50% of fleet entries, as long as that link remains there is no chance of meeting any 2030 dates,

Japan have fudged their 2035 "No emissions" target to allow Prius and other Petrol hybrids to continue, should this continues NZ is damned by association

gzt

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#2936511 30-Jun-2022 14:24

Wikipedia has a list of fossil fuel vehicle phaseout dates by country:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehicles

Scott3

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#2936522 30-Jun-2022 14:51

gzt:
I take your point. Nevertheless, many of these countries have end dates.

gzt: Wikipedia has a list of fossil fuel phaseout dates by country:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehicles

From the wiki list you quoted:

China, 1.37 billion Listed as 2035, but this is far from the end of Fosse fuel's. Hydrogen / Plug in vehicles (incl plug in hybrid) will make up half the fleet, remaining half can be normal hybrids.
India, 1.299 billion Not on list
Indonesia, 255.46 million 2050 for "conventional cars" hybrids may still be allowed?
Pakistan, 191.78 million Not on list
Bangladesh, 158.76 million Not on list
Japan, 126.89 million Listed as 2035, but this is their shift to hybrid only. "Diesel and petrol hybrid cars to continue to be sold indefinitely"
The Philippines, 102.96 million Not on list
Vietnam, 91.81 million Not on list
Iran, 78.77 million Not on list
Turkey, 78.21 million 2040 (zero emmisions)

So other than Turkey, none have end dates for fossil fuel vehicles.

I imagine South america, Africa will be in a similar boat to the big Asian countries too.

Still plenty of places to sell emitting vehicles in coming decades, Ok for Toyota which is popular in many such markets, but not so good for BMW etc.

Scott3

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#2936525 30-Jun-2022 14:55

Just noted that NZ is a signatory on the Glasgow Declaration.

" As governments, we will work towards all sales of new cars and vans being zero emission by 2040 or earlier, or by no later than 2035 in leading markets."

Note the soft wording though (emphasis mine)

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/cop26-declaration-zero-emission-cars-and-vans/cop26-declaration-on-accelerating-the-transition-to-100-zero-emission-cars-and-vans

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#2936528 30-Jun-2022 14:59

Scott3:

Power is fairly expensive at cira NZD 0.28 /kWh, dirty, and unreliable compared to NZ (I was in Manila when the entire city preemptively shut off power as a typhoon approached, as a prior typhoon resulted in a part with a 2 - 3 week lead time blowing up, and they didn't want to go that again). Rural beach resorts often advertise a backup genset as an amenity...

heh reminds me - signed up my son for online coding class, suddenly the teacher disappeared

turns out there was a power outage in Manila

tripper1000

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#2936549 30-Jun-2022 15:58

The FUD above is reminiscent of the hysteria when the bans on horse draw transport and mandatory seat belts and driver licensing were announced.

But don't panic! You'll be allowed to drive filthy used clunkers imported from Japan, Europe and China after 2035. I'm sure they'll all be getting dumped in under-developed countries like Chad, the Philippines and New Zealand.

2035 isn't a particularly ambitious date (and it can be amended don't forget!). EV's are presently more expensive due to the cost of batteries. The chassis costs the same as a piston car and the engine is quite a bit cheaper. The price of batteries is plummeting (presently that translates into more bang for your EV buck) and EV's will shortly (2026-ish) be on price parity with gas cars, and cheaper soon after.

Does anyone remember how expensive LCD's were when they came out? 15" monitors cost over $1k! But now they're way cheaper and better that CRT's ever were. Price drop was due to scales of economy from mass manufacturing kicking in. The same applies to Li-ion batteries/EV's. They expect EV's to be on price parity by around 2026 and continue to become cheaper, so by 3035 average people will likely have been buying EV's for a while, simply because it will have been the cheapest option.

Tesla Model 3 is already one of the most profitable cars (google it), so while it is admittedly a luxury car, the present and increasing profit margins signals that there are big reductions in EV prices on the horizon.

mattwnz

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#2936550 30-Jun-2022 15:59

wellygary:
Scott3:

Basically no chance on NZ moving sooner. We are not the kind of country to be an early mover with that kind of stuff, and also we don't really have the market power to push auto makers around like the UK does.

Agree,

NZ is shackled to the 2nd hand Japanese car fleet for around 50% of fleet entries, as long as that link remains there is no chance of meeting any 2030 dates,

Japan have fudged their 2035 "No emissions" target to allow Prius and other Petrol hybrids to continue, should this continues NZ is damned by association

Japan are way behind in developing EVs. But Japanese cars tend to be more reliable and one likely reason that NZs average age is about double that in the UK. Batteries seem to be the big problem and that has always been the problem as some of the very first cars were electric. But NZ also had a problem looming with being able to generate enough power for the 4 million plus EVs that would be needed if replacing all the cars. It is going to take decades. We need more hydro generation.

Sharesies

Trade NZ and US shares and funds with Sharesies (affiliate link).

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#2936561 30-Jun-2022 16:18

Japan and China aren't exactly friends. maybe they don't have access to batteries

Scott3

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#2936571 30-Jun-2022 16:51

tripper1000:

The FUD above is reminiscent of the hysteria when the bans on horse draw transport and mandatory seat belts and driver licensing were announced.

But don't panic! You'll be allowed to drive filthy used clunkers imported from Japan, Europe and China after 2035. I'm sure they'll all be getting dumped in under-developed countries like Chad, the Philippines and New Zealand.

2035 isn't a particularly ambitious date (and it can be amended don't forget!). EV's are presently more expensive due to the cost of batteries. The chassis costs the same as a piston car and the engine is quite a bit cheaper. The price of batteries is plummeting (presently that translates into more bang for your EV buck) and EV's will shortly (2026-ish) be on price parity with gas cars, and cheaper soon after.

Does anyone remember how expensive LCD's were when they came out? 15" monitors cost over $1k! But now they're way cheaper and better that CRT's ever were. Price drop was due to scales of economy from mass manufacturing kicking in. The same applies to Li-ion batteries/EV's. They expect EV's to be on price parity by around 2026 and continue to become cheaper, so by 3035 average people will likely have been buying EV's for a while, simply because it will have been the cheapest option.

Tesla Model 3 is already one of the most profitable cars (google it), so while it is admittedly a luxury car, the present and increasing profit margins signals that there are big reductions in EV prices on the horizon.

If you are refering to me with your FUD reference, I completely reject that, and stand by my statement's.

I absolutely support the move to EV's and have one in the driveway, but this is not going to be easy.

2035 is extremely ambitious for Europe. Currenly Europe is at 11% market share BEV. To ramp this up to 100% in just 13 years is very ambitious, especially given we are seeing battery prices spike due to raw material's shortage now..

https://insideevs.com/news/594688/europe-plugin-car-sales-may-2022/

If the 2035 date is kept I pick a large reduction in car sales in europe in 2026. Auto makers are unlikely to be able to be able to produce their current volume of cars in electric format, and the higher capital cost will make them less attainable vs current ICE cars. This will lead to an aging fleet and/or less car ownership while automakers continue to ramp EV production.

Note I don't think this is a bad thing. Best to make do with the vehicles in the current fleet, rather than inject new emmiting cars with 20 year useful lives. Used fleet will mean their are plenty of car's for those who don't want EV's out to at lest 2045 in europe.

Should note EU's move to synthetic fuels will make fuel a lot more expensive.

On NZ, The most NZ has committed is to "work towards" 2040. We will have to fight hard to get our share of the EV pie (as more important markets hoover up large volumes). As another person mentioned, japan not being into EV's will be a challenge for us. Meeting the 2040 goal will mean we need to almost entirely stop bring in the cheap used cars from japan we are so used to. Cars will get more expensive, and our fleet age will continue to grow. Again I don't think this is a bad thing, but we should not understate the amount of change.

Scott3

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#2936573 30-Jun-2022 17:00

mattwnz:

Japan are way behind in developing EVs. But Japanese cars tend to be more reliable and one likely reason that NZs average age is about double that in the UK. Batteries seem to be the big problem and that has always been the problem as some of the very first cars were electric. But NZ also had a problem looming with being able to generate enough power for the 4 million plus EVs that would be needed if replacing all the cars. It is going to take decades. We need more hydro generation.

NZ is actually well placed when it comes to generating power for light EV's. Lots of consented renewables. Slow predictable EV growth (our average fleet age is something like 14 years, so most of the cars sold this year will still be running around in 2040+)

And actually charging light EV's is a very minor problem vs moving industrial heat from coal & gas to renewable's. Many more times energy is need for the latter.

Globally battery production (incl raw materials) is going to be a big issue. Really everything else pales in comparison.

Will be an interesting decade.

mattwnz

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#2936597 30-Jun-2022 17:40

Scott3:

Globally battery production (incl raw materials) is going to be a big issue. Really everything else pales in comparison.

Will be an interesting decade.

Light EVs yes, and changes to teh resource management act should hopefully see more generation built. But trucks, public transport, and freight etc are another story.

That is why I don't understand why we aren't moving to more electric powered public transport that is powered by overhead lines. eg Trains, light rail, and buses, and even trucks. Wellington used to have trolley buses until recently, when they removed them all, as the system was allowed to get too run down. But the amount required to upgrade it wasn't that much compared to the price of setting up an entirely new network again. It was such a backwards move IMO, because now they need to move to battery powered buses and also rely on diesel. Battery powered buses IMO are nowhere near as good, they are expensive and need to carry around large heavy batteries, and they need time to charge. I wonder if the removal of the trolley system would have occurred today seeing NZ has now declared a climate crisis. . There are also places in Europe that have overhead power cables on the motorway for trucks.

Scott3

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#2936603 30-Jun-2022 18:02

mattwnz:

Light EVs yes, and changes to teh resource management act should hopefully see more generation built. But trucks, public transport, and freight etc are another story.

That is why I don't understand why we aren't moving to more electric powered public transport that is powered by overhead lines. eg Trains, light rail, and buses, and even trucks. Wellington used to have trolley buses until recently, when they removed them all, as the system was allowed to get too run down. But the amount required to upgrade it wasn't that much compared to the price of setting up an entirely new network again. It was such a backwards move IMO, because now they need to move to battery powered buses and also rely on diesel. Battery powered buses IMO are nowhere near as good, they are expensive and need to carry around large heavy batteries, and they need time to charge. I wonder if the removal of the trolley system would have occurred today seeing NZ has now declared a climate crisis. . There are also places in Europe that have overhead power cables on the motorway for trucks.

Reality is we are blessed for renewable energy in NZ. With the right policy we can get it done. And we have a good starting poing at cira 15 - 20% fossel fuel, vs 35% for Europe and 60%+ for the USA

The trucks & busses etc, actually use quite a bit less energy than our light vehicle fleet.

https://www.transpower.co.nz/about-us/transmission-tomorrow/electrification-roadmap

And they will lag light EV's so we can handle that.

Process heat still remains the epic challenge (plus those industries are used to circa 6c/kWH energy, so the price of power might be a big issue).

Auckland had it's rail electrified not long ago, which was good news.

Wellington trolley bus network was basically poked, so needed a heap of money spent, or it ripped out. Sadly they went with the latter, opting to bet on battery electric busses coming on the market soon. And to be fair they have quite a lot running now. The system where busses can do really quick fast charges at stops looks really good.

I will still miss the trolley busses though.

[edit] should note that graph above will be domestic. International shipping & aviation use epic amounts of fuel.

tdgeek

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#2936607 30-Jun-2022 18:14

mattwnz:

Japan are way behind in developing EVs. But Japanese cars tend to be more reliable and one likely reason that NZs average age is about double that in the UK. Batteries seem to be the big problem and that has always been the problem as some of the very first cars were electric. But NZ also had a problem looming with being able to generate enough power for the 4 million plus EVs that would be needed if replacing all the cars. It is going to take decades. We need more hydro generation.

I agree. But if anyone thinks Japan is behind is taking a risk. Let everyone else be the early adopters. Maybe issues are found, maybe batteries evolve, then jump in, taking economic advantage of the learnings that others bore the cost of. In global manufacturing terms EV are weak. Hybrids suit the buyers more. I think EV's are superb, but forget that, its about the masses. Ultimately EV;s will rule the world, but the constraint is the current cost (cost, R+D, margin) and production is a fraction of ICE production. Its a transition.

tdgeek

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#2936615 30-Jun-2022 18:37

Scott3:

Auto makers are unlikely to be able to be able to produce their current volume of cars in electric format, and the higher capital cost will make them less attainable vs current ICE cars.

First, I agree with your post so my comments are not bagging for the sake of bagging.

An ICE is expensive, complex, many moving parts, same with transmission. EV has 20 parts, no transmission. Batteries are costly but are they that costly? IIRC people here asking about Leaf upgrades it seemed quite low, so is a 40 or 60kW battery pack that expensive? (ignoring R+D recovery)

IMO the cost of ICE/Transmission vs EV seems not a world apart, in fact Id suggest that pure cost + margin EV is way cheaper, so it seems to be down to R+D. We all remember what CDRW drives and blanks cost, an arm and three legs, now you can buy a family pack of KFC for less $

gzt

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#2936618 30-Jun-2022 18:46

Scott3: Globally battery production (incl raw materials) is going to be a big issue. Really everything else pales in comparison.

Toyota may still believe they can beat this with hydrogen, and who knows. At the moment hydrogen logistics look a lot harder than the constant announcements of new battery technologies and materials : ).

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