What will power our vehicles in the future?

Forums › Transport (cars, bikes and boats) › What will power our vehicles in the future?

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#2805657 1-Nov-2021 18:18

The first flight across Cook Strait arrived in Wellington this morning from Omaka (Blenheim)

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/126846054/first-electric-flight-over-cook-strait-lands-at-wellington-airport

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#2805671 1-Nov-2021 18:51

RobDickinson:
I think I will believe the experts over a forum user sorry.

*unless they are experts you don’t like

Dingbatt

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#2805685 1-Nov-2021 18:51

RobDickinson:

There is nothing in physics that says we cant have large scale electric.

Except maybe the the standard lift=weight and thrust=drag and the interaction between lift and drag. Unless there is a plan to repeal the laws of aerodynamics. You may build a ‘Spruce Goose’ with the technology available in the next 10 years. It will probably log the same number of air miles.

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Technofreak

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#2805693 1-Nov-2021 19:00

RobDickinson:

There is nothing in physics that says we cant have large scale electric aircraft.

I'm sure if Airbus dont do it then someone else, possibly tesla, will.

It sounds like Airbus is considering being the next nokia.

Right now, Yes there is. The batteries weigh far too much for other than a very few niche operations.

Even at 400 wh/kg a battery weights about 29 times more than the equivalent energy contained in JET A1. Remember presently we are at around 250 wh/kg.

If we are generous and say the thermodynamic efficiencies and other gains from going electric bring the difference down to 10 times it still doesn't work. To give an example a small to medium size turbo prop will carry about 600 kg of fuel as a minimum for a 100 nautical mile trip. That equates to 6000 kg of batteries. When the maximum take off weight is 7000 to 7500 kg and the empty weight of the aircraft is at least 4000 kg, I'm sure you can see it doesn't work.

Right now the physics say it doesn't work.

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Rikkitic

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#2805711 1-Nov-2021 19:52

I am having an evening drink, so that may be reflected in this post. But I just had a crazy idea. If the aircraft is an air ship lifted by helium, the weight of the batteries becomes meaningless. So couldn't an air ship make effortless transatlantic voyages on battery power? The trade-off is speed, but everything these days is too fast anyway. An added advantage of going slow is time to recharge the batteries from the sun. It seems like a win-win to me.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

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#2805712 1-Nov-2021 19:59

if you want a slow aircraft easier to build a giant floating tub.

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Technofreak

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#2805720 1-Nov-2021 20:18

Rikkitic:

I am having an evening drink, so that may be reflected in this post. But I just had a crazy idea. If the aircraft is an air ship lifted by helium, the weight of the batteries becomes meaningless. So couldn't an air ship make effortless transatlantic voyages on battery power? The trade-off is speed, but everything these days is too fast anyway. An added advantage of going slow is time to recharge the batteries from the sun. It seems like a win-win to me.

Put that drink away. 🥳 It is a crazy idea. 😎The helium still has to lift the batteries so they're not meaningless.

So far as solar powered flying goes check out Solar Impulse 2

https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2016/07/flying-around-the-world-in-a-solar-powered-plane/493085/

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/inside-first-solar-powered-flight-around-world-180968000/

Pretty cool but no practical use, at least not right now.

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#2805815 2-Nov-2021 07:36

Rikkitic:

I am having an evening drink, so that may be reflected in this post. But I just had a crazy idea. If the aircraft is an air ship lifted by helium, the weight of the batteries becomes meaningless. So couldn't an air ship make effortless transatlantic voyages on battery power? The trade-off is speed, but everything these days is too fast anyway. An added advantage of going slow is time to recharge the batteries from the sun. It seems like a win-win to me.

Its not a crazy idea and the technology already exists to achieve it but not in a commercially viable way. Advances in materials technology mean lighter weight gas envelopes are possible but payload would still be severely limited, particularly if you consider the energy required to propel a vessel through trans-oceanic distances.

As far as I know, helium is a finite resource. So to make a meaningful difference to the 3% of emissions that commercial aviation produces you would probably run out of helium. Unless of course you could manufacture more. Maybe in a fusion reactor? But then if that existed, we wouldn’t need to worry about emissions anyway. (Edit: Or use hydrogen as Germany was forced to do, but cough, Hindenburg……….).

One of the benefits of jet travel is that by and large you are travelling in a part of the atmosphere that is above the weather, mostly affected by jet stream winds rather than cloud. Airships can’t get that high and are exposed to convective turbulence, rain and icing. And add to that progressing at 800km/h rather than 200.

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MikeAqua

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#2809456 8-Nov-2021 17:13

The way I see this playing out: -

Commuter cars - BEV

Vehicles that tow - ICE using bio-diesel (BEV are a disaster for towing any sizeable load), maybe fuel cell LH2 after that

Urban trucks and buses - BEV, maybe fuel cell LH2 after that

Longhaul trucks and buses - Biodiesel, then fuel cell LH2

Ships - Biodiesel, then LH2. The boats I'm familiar with wouldn't float with sufficient battery capacity to compete voyage.

Aircraft - I have no idea, assume battery for short haul and biodiesel for long haul, maybe LH2

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#2809472 8-Nov-2021 17:39

MikeAqua:

The way I see this playing out: -

Commuter cars - BEV

Vehicles that tow - ICE using bio-diesel (BEV are a disaster for towing any sizeable load), maybe fuel cell LH2 after that

Urban trucks and buses - BEV, maybe fuel cell LH2 after that

Longhaul trucks and buses - Biodiesel, then fuel cell LH2

Ships - Biodiesel, then LH2. The boats I'm familiar with wouldn't float with sufficient battery capacity to compete voyage.

Aircraft - I have no idea, assume battery for short haul and biodiesel for long haul, maybe LH2

I see hydrogen as the future for heavy road transport. I saw a headline about trucks using pantographs recently, somewhere in Europe I think but the infrastructure to support that in New Zealand would be prohibitive. There's a few hydrogen powered trucks being imported and I understand there's a hydrogen filling network about to be established.

As for aircraft, it seems they fit in the same category as ships, in that they're not able to carry enough payload to carry the required battery capacity. Have a look at what I posted about 4 or 5 posts back. My numbers are back of a fag packet calculations so will not be highly accurate but close enough to show current battery technology, even allowing for incremental advancements, isn't a really viable option, even for short haul flights.

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MikeAqua

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#2809851 9-Nov-2021 13:17

Technofreak:

I see hydrogen as the future for heavy road transport. I saw a headline about trucks using pantographs recently, somewhere in Europe I think but the infrastructure to support that in New Zealand would be prohibitive. There's a few hydrogen powered trucks being imported and I understand there's a hydrogen filling network about to be established.

As for aircraft, it seems they fit in the same category as ships, in that they're not able to carry enough payload to carry the required battery capacity. Have a look at what I posted about 4 or 5 posts back. My numbers are back of a fag packet calculations so will not be highly accurate but close enough to show current battery technology, even allowing for incremental advancements, isn't a really viable option, even for short haul flights.

Hydrogen in long haul trucks was based around discussions with a large fleet operator in NZ.

Planes, not my area of expertise, although I've spent lot of time in them. SoundsAir say they will have electric in 2026. Their flights are mostly under an hour. Maybe it's all hot air.

I forgot to mention short-haul ferries and it looks like battery electric will be real goer for them. East by West have splashed and all electric ferry but it isn't operating services yet. Auckland Transport are looking at it seriously too.

Mike

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Technofreak

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#2809865 9-Nov-2021 13:31

MikeAqua:

Technofreak:

I see hydrogen as the future for heavy road transport. I saw a headline about trucks using pantographs recently, somewhere in Europe I think but the infrastructure to support that in New Zealand would be prohibitive. There's a few hydrogen powered trucks being imported and I understand there's a hydrogen filling network about to be established.

As for aircraft, it seems they fit in the same category as ships, in that they're not able to carry enough payload to carry the required battery capacity. Have a look at what I posted about 4 or 5 posts back. My numbers are back of a fag packet calculations so will not be highly accurate but close enough to show current battery technology, even allowing for incremental advancements, isn't a really viable option, even for short haul flights.

Hydrogen in long haul trucks was based around discussions with a large fleet operator in NZ.

Planes, not my area of expertise, although I've spent lot of time in them. SoundsAir say they will have electric in 2026. Their flights are mostly under an hour. Maybe it's all hot air.

I forgot to mention short-haul ferries and it looks like battery electric will be real goer for them. East by West have splashed and all electric ferry but it isn't operating services yet. Auckland Transport are looking at it seriously too.

Mainly hot air.

I'd say more like 2036, or later, before there's any electric aircraft like Sounds Air air are suggesting.

It's my bet that the Heart Aerospace will never produce that aircraft and meet the performance specs. I'd be surprised if Heart Aerospace are still operating much past 2026. It's a massive ask to do what they are planning to do especially for a startup.

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