The future of Car Manufacturers

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MikeB4
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#2935751 29-Jun-2022 08:50

I am currently assessing EVs to purchase a number of them. If a manufacturer cannot get one of the most visible sign of quality right, that is, shut lines it does not give a great deal of confidence in the underlying quality of the vehicle. Supplying a new vehicle with 23 immediate faults that require correction and reconnection does not give confidence in quality and durability.

Parking the tragic supply chain issues the up coming offerings from Mercedes, VW Group, China and even Peugeot (and yes I can’t believe I said that about Peugeot)are showing that these makers are doing it better.

Tesla I believe would be better off licensing their design and development to one or two of the traditional makers and withdrawing from the manufacturing of vehicles.

As for Ford, I have no interest in them as I believe they will in the very near future repeat what GM did in the Australian/Aotearoa market.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

jfanning

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#2935753 29-Jun-2022 09:03

Scott3:

I had "mobile phones" typed out, and decided to delete it.

Yes their other divisions are still trucking on, I felt what happened was significant enough not split out that business unit.

Company went from cira 50% of the smartphone market in 2008, to less than 5% in 2013.

Staff numbers went from 132,000 in 2010, to 55,400 in 2014.

This was a massive upheaval.

I haven't checked on the scale, but a comparative automotive example might be Honda stopping most of it's car production, but still going strong in other area's (motorcycles, ATV's, Power equipment like generators, small engines, outboard engines for boats, Aircraft etc.)

Potentially still a viable and large company, but a massive change in their operations.

Just about the entire business model of Honda is around engines, it is what they started doing, and what they are still doing, just about every business unit uses those.

Nokia has been changing their business model, selling business units etc constantly over their 157 year history, the fact they sold a failing business unit (which contained a heap of staff that were doing basically nothing) and are still continuing to this day shows they are the not the example you were best trying to use, they are more of an example of a company coping with a massive change in technology and still continuing to exist.

RobDickinson

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#2935754 29-Jun-2022 09:06

GV27:

Recalls happen. Parts on vehicles fail. It's going to happen on Teslas too. That's manufacturing at scale. It is what it is.

Oh for sure, but proclaiming it will be the end of Tesla whilst ignoring its just a fact of large scale complex manufacturing for all is a poor argument

MikeB4: Supplying a new vehicle with 23 immediate faults that require correction and reconnection does not give confidence in quality and durability.

One huge downside of tesla is their lack of care on delivery of cars. All cars turn up to dealer with issues and need things sorted, most manufacturers dont just hand them over to customers and deal with it later. I'm not saying tesla is perfect by any means, their cars are fundamentally built well though

GV27

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#2935756 29-Jun-2022 09:09

RobDickinson:

Oh for sure, but proclaiming it will be the end of Tesla whilst ignoring its just a fact of large scale complex manufacturing for all is a poor argument

That I can get on board with. They're going to face a lot of competition from people who are used to pumping out six different cars off one platform, so it will change big-time, but hopefully it will drive a bit of innovation for a while.

Batman

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#2935758 29-Jun-2022 09:13

jfanning:

Just about the entire business model of Honda is around engines, it is what they started doing, and what they are still doing, just about every business unit uses those.

Nokia has been changing their business model, selling business units etc constantly over their 157 year history, the fact they sold a failing business unit (which contained a heap of staff that were doing basically nothing) and are still continuing to this day shows they are the not the example you were best trying to use, they are more of an example of a company coping with a massive change in technology and still continuing to exist.

people who think petroleum is dead need to look harder

Norway may be banning petrol cars, but at the same time they are ramping up their petroleum business and planning for further increase in exports (currently sitting nicely at 40% of their country's income i read somewhere)

i can only think of one word starting with H

everybody other than NZ have vested interest in petroleum coz it brings in money, while we just print money and feel good driving around in our Nissan Leaf

(i love my Nissan Leaf and absolutely feel amazing in it btw - best thing since sliced bread)

RobDickinson

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#2935760 29-Jun-2022 09:15

Everyone apart from Europe and China?

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Batman

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#2935761 29-Jun-2022 09:15

GV27:

RobDickinson:

Oh for sure, but proclaiming it will be the end of Tesla whilst ignoring its just a fact of large scale complex manufacturing for all is a poor argument

That I can get on board with. They're going to face a lot of competition from people who are used to pumping out six different cars off one platform, so it will change big-time, but hopefully it will drive a bit of innovation for a while.

at the moment nobody can beat Tesla in their kwh efficiency and charging network, so that's a massive pro in people who actually need to use their EVs

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#2935763 29-Jun-2022 09:18

RobDickinson:

Everyone apart from Europe and China?

china produces about 4-5 million barrels of oil a day, about the level of Canada, Iraq

(top dogs are at around 10 million - that's your USA, Russia, Saudi)

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#2935764 29-Jun-2022 09:20

RobDickinson:

Everyone apart from Europe and China?

almost every European country with a sea border produces crude oil inc UK

RobDickinson

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#2935765 29-Jun-2022 09:20

Do people really want strategies like the VW one with the ID3 released under half a dozen badges, an ID4 and an ID5 (an ID4 with less headroom) etc? I just dont get it.

MikeB4

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#2935767 29-Jun-2022 09:22

In recent decades new comers have struggled and failures will always occur. Tesla entered at the “niche” stage and successfully played the under dog card. However once mass market insertion by (for want of a better term) the players in the industry Tesla and like will be swamped by a mass production, marketing, dealer network and brand recognition and those in the public that are still able to afford cars will buy from the known brands. Tesla may struggle on like TVR for example but will ultimately change hands a few times and fade away. Their ongoing legacy could be confirmed by licensing their knowledge to others like some of the component manufacturers and design houses in the ICE market.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

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GV27

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#2935769 29-Jun-2022 09:24

RobDickinson:

Do people really want strategies like the VW one with the ID3 released under half a dozen badges, an ID4 and an ID5 (an ID4 with less headroom) etc? I just dont get it.

You could make the same argument about the Model 3 and Model Y. But it's reasonable to assume they do, there is demand for the ICE equivalent e.g. every flavour of Audi Q-SUV you can imagine a number for, and sportbacks thereof.

And that's how you get scale and drive prices down. I'm kind of miffed as to why the ID.3 wasn't mentioned in the email last night though.

GV27

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#2935771 29-Jun-2022 09:25

Batman:

at the moment nobody can beat Tesla in their kwh efficiency and charging network, so that's a massive pro in people who actually need to use their EVs

The charging network is a bit of a dead heron in NZ, we have a pretty expansive network and there's not much a Model 3 can do that an Ioniq or EV 6 won't for slightly more money.

RobDickinson

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#2935772 29-Jun-2022 09:25

MikeB4: Tesla may struggle on like TVR for example but will ultimately change hands a few times and fade away.

Tesla have been growing at over 50% a year for a decade, they now make more cars per year than Mitsubishi or Mazda, and will make more than BMW or Mercedes next year (in all probability)

TVR made a few hundred cars a year in a shed in Blackpool. By hand.

MikeB4

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#2935777 29-Jun-2022 09:38

Tesla have been able to do that due to the lack of real competition in the EV market place. There has been Nissan and a few horrible Mitsubishi/PSA examples but they have generally had it to themselves. In the next few years they are going to be hit with a tsunami of competition.

Also my TVR example was not about Tesla now but what Tesla maybe in ten years unless they mature and change their quality assurance, dealer network, support etc etc. I hope they do change as they bring to the market some very good design and tech, their awful interior design and ergonomics excluded. I don’t believe they can achieve this under their current hmmmm leadership.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

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