Clean Car Upgrade programme - new scrap-and-replace trial

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alasta

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#2916398 20-May-2022 10:56

Obraik:

An iPhone battery only has one cell. An EV has many hundreds of cells, which the degradation is spread over. So a Leaf might have 60% SoH for the whole pack, but each cell is not that low. There will be a point where yes, the battery is effectively dead but I haven't heard of even a Leaf getting to that point yet.

But if some cells are close to the threshold of the acceptable limit, then wouldn't that mean that the other cells are getting close to that threshold? i.e. the deterioration of the pack accelerates as it becomes more worn?

Obraik

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#2916408 20-May-2022 11:29

alasta:

But if some cells are close to the threshold of the acceptable limit, then wouldn't that mean that the other cells are getting close to that threshold? i.e. the deterioration of the pack accelerates as it becomes more worn?

I'm not a battery expert but no, that doesn't appear to be what happens. At least, not yet. If you look at any degradation graph for a Leaf it's a pretty linear trend down without cliffs.

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Scott3

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#2916418 20-May-2022 11:45

alasta:

I'm sure one of the EV enthusiasts on here will correct me if I'm wrong, but I was under the impression that the capacity decline on lithium ion batteries is not linear. iPhones, for example, need to have their batteries replaced when they hit 80% capacity because they can't continue to operate reliably beyond that point.

For the leaf it is reasonably linear on the 24kWH & 30kWh, and concave up on the 40kWh

https://flipthefleet.org/resources/benchmark-your-leaf-before-buying/

No evidence to back this up, but I think the 24kWh leaf's generally remain operational down to about 45% health, where the odd's of an individual cell failure's taking down the whole pack become fairly high (the ones in the center row of the back seat get hottest so are most at risk). Individual cells can be replaced, but I imagine if one was going to crack open the pack, they would want to change all the ones that look a bit weak, and at cira $150 each for used cells (+fitting), the cost may be hard to justify on a pack that is approaching it end of it's useful life on a range basis anyway.

Thankfully the 8 years old of less limit means the 2011 - 2013 leaf's will be off the menu. There was a battery chemistry change covering 2014 and later leaf's that makes the pack degrade slower than cars of prior years.

30kWh packs sounds somewhat more prone to having issues than the 24kWh & 40kWh.

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#2916426 20-May-2022 12:13

GV27:

Scott3:

It was only the Prius prime (The plug in version of the 4th gen prius that was a 4 seater). i.e:

https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/motors/cars/toyota/prius/listing/3601834968

Not a very common car.

Assume the 2020 change linked to above means that after a change over date, they are all 5 seaters globally, but I couldn't find an NZ example.

There's plenty of these floating around Japan, although I'm guessing they'll have limited appeal to NZ so may never make it here.

Sad really, because by this point the only thing the Prius wasn't doing right was the back-seat thing and the wonky gear selector - otherwise it had transformed into a pretty useful car and the plug/normalied looks were a big part of that.

In terms of the 4th gen prius in general, it is just a bit new & valuable to get into really high volume used car import territory. Give it another couple of years, and they will be much more common.

Cheapest 4th gen prius on trade-me is $19k +ORC, less $1800 rebate.

Cheapist Prius Prime is $30k +ORC, less $2300 rebate.

For clarity the non-plugin 4th gen Prius is a 5 seat configuration.

And being a 4 seater won't be a deal breaker for many. I don't think we have ever had 5 people in our leaf that we have owned for 18months.

I think the spec's of the Prime are attractive enough that it will be popular here when they get a bit cheaper, but at current pricing, I imagine most people looking for plug in car's will be going for 40kWh leaf's, or Outlander PHEV's. Or spending the extra $12k to order a brand new MG ZS EV.

Still good to have as an option in the market.

alasta

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#2916434 20-May-2022 12:35

Scott3:

alasta:

I'm sure one of the EV enthusiasts on here will correct me if I'm wrong, but I was under the impression that the capacity decline on lithium ion batteries is not linear. iPhones, for example, need to have their batteries replaced when they hit 80% capacity because they can't continue to operate reliably beyond that point.

For the leaf it is reasonably linear on the 24kWH & 30kWh, and concave up on the 40kWh

Thanks, that's really interesting. Would the deterioration curve be similar for a Niro or Kona EV? I've heard that they have better thermal management than the Leaf?

I've recently been doing some financial analysis on the viability of buying an EV. My currently assumption is a purchase price of $71k for the longer range Leaf, minus $8.5k government subsidy, with a scrap value of $25k after five years. Given the degree of battery degradation over five years I'm wondering if a dealer would realistically pay a $25k trade in for a five year old Leaf, bearing in mind they have to add their margin and GST to resell it.

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#2916481 20-May-2022 12:48

alasta:

Thanks, that's really interesting. Would the deterioration curve be similar for a Niro or Kona EV? I've heard that they have better thermal management than the Leaf?

I've recently been doing some financial analysis on the viability of buying an EV. My currently assumption is a purchase price of $71k for the longer range Leaf, minus $8.5k government subsidy, with a scrap value of $25k after five years. Given the degree of battery degradation over five years I'm wondering if a dealer would realistically pay a $25k trade in for a five year old Leaf, bearing in mind they have to add their margin and GST to resell it.

Yeah, degradation lines for EVs with active thermal management (like the Niro, Kona, any Tesla or the MG ZS) is very flat. Most might see an initial small drop in the first 6 months as the pack stabilises from the factory but then there's very minimal loss from then. Keeping the cells at conditions they like goes a long way to keeping them healthy.

My suggestion would be to not buy a new Leaf, or spend more than $30k on one. Even the brand new Leaf do not have thermal management and while their chemistry is better and more stable today, it's still not as good as those with thermal management.

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Scott3

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#2916487 20-May-2022 13:07

alasta:

Thanks, that's really interesting. Would the deterioration curve be similar for a Niro or Kona EV? I've heard that they have better thermal management than the Leaf?

I've recently been doing some financial analysis on the viability of buying an EV. My currently assumption is a purchase price of $71k for the longer range Leaf, minus $8.5k government subsidy, with a scrap value of $25k after five years. Given the degree of battery degradation over five years I'm wondering if a dealer would realistically pay a $25k trade in for a five year old Leaf, bearing in mind they have to add their margin and GST to resell it.

Yeah, both the Kona and the Leaf have thermal management, unlike the leaf.

Should note that one of the biggest advantages of having thermal management is allowing more than two fast charges a day without getting the pack real hot, or slowing down the charging.

Generally consistence is that the deterioration of a Kona of Niro will be less than that of a leaf, but data to back that up is hard to come by. Family members have a 64kWh kona. Unlike nissan that quoted kWh is the usable pack (total is something like 67.5kWh). Initial degradation could come the unusable part of the pack, and the SOH reported from scan tools sometimes reads over 100%... Regardless, that car is about 2.5 years old, and still produces a real world range around the 450km mark.

Nissan was real brave putting a battery readout on the dashboard (i.e. 9 bar leaf).

In terms of residual value of a leaf 5 years into the future, this is really a guessing game. But for comparison a 30kWh 2017 leaf has trademe asking price arround the $20k - $25k mark (before $3.5k rebate), and a 40kWh (new shape) leaf commands an asking price of about $33k (before $3.5k rebate). I think the $25k is about right for 5 year residual of the e+ leaf.

But I have to say, if your are worries about residuals, a brand new leaf is just about the worst option on the market you could pick. Used leaf prices are depressed by the volume of imports from japan. Just about anything else would depreciate less.

2019 or 2020 used Leaf e+ ex japan (from $47k +ORC, less $3.5k rebate)
Tesla model 3 (Recently these have appreciated in value)
Kia EV6 RWD
Ioniq
Ioniq 5 (base only)
MG ZS EV
Mini EV
Pug e-208.
Lexus UX300e

Basically anything with a waiting list to buy new, not crazy expensive, and that is a desirable will depreciate less. Cars that are recently released, or are hard to come by in the used market will depreciate less.

Car's with good specs to use as a main car will depreciate less, Generally luxury & euro stuff depreciates more.

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