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Scott3

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#296056 17-May-2022 13:45
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https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/transport-drive-down-emissions

 

“Families who trade in their vehicle will receive support for the purchase of EVs, PHEVs and hybrids. By taking advantage of the Clean Car Upgrade, families will not only benefit from lower transport costs but will also be able to replace their high-emitting older vehicles with a safe and sustainable alternative."

 

Further details in this radio interview with the transport minister:

 

https://www.rnz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=2018842234

 

  • Going to be targeting households at approx less than the median household income (cira $75k) - Exact value to be researched more.
  • Approx max value of replacement vehicles $35k
  • Max age of replacement vehicles 8 years.
  • In contradiction to the above states they want to be bringing NEW, clean vehicles into the fleet.
  • Flexibility for people to take up other clean transport options (i.e. get an e-bike or Public Transport pass in return for scrapping their vehicle.
  • Details TBA

 

 

I note that this has already been discussed in the EV News thread, but given the policy also covers (non plug in hybrids), i figured a new thread is justified.

 

 

 

 

 

In terms of my own thoughts on this.

 

  • Not a big fan of scrapage schemes. Destroying functional cars doesn't seem like a great environmental outcome.
  • International examples (such as US cash for clunkers) have been deemed to be poor value for taxpayer money.
  • NZ Trials in 2007 and 2009 concluded with "This showed that a nationwide scrappage scheme is unlikely to be cost effective." https://www.transport.govt.nz/about-us/what-we-do/queries/vehicle-scrappage-trials/
  • The Targeted nature of the scheme will make it less efficient at reducing emissions than an untargeted scheme.
  • Running costs of car's can be a major contribute to financial difficulty for those living in car dependent locations. Perpetual cycle of of: - can't afford housing in a location that isn't car dependent - Hence need car to access work, medical, supermarket etc. - can't afford car that dosn't suck, or to maintain it properly - Leads to very high running costs (fuel and repairs) compared to somebody who could find say $10k capital for a toyota aqua, fielder hybrid or similar. Potential massive social gains if we can break people out of this cycle.
  • $569m is a heap money.
  • Seems to be lower hanging fruit, like removing the exemption from emissions standards and from clean car fees for used imports more than 20 year's old.
  • $35k is quite a lot to spend on a car with a $75k household income, but potentially could offer lower total cost of ownership than a succession of thirsty and unreliable $1 - $3k cars.
  • $35k cap means almost all cars covered in the scheme, will be used (would need to insist they be fresh imports if the goal is to change the fleet mix). Although a new Yaris hybrid is cheap enough to fit under the cap, and it is exceptionally efficient at 3.3L/100km.
  • The focus on used cars is going to mean the NZ fleet will be shaped based on what is available used ex japan. This means a heap of the likes of Toyota Aqua's, and relatively few plug in vehicles (they aren't that popular in japan, and NZ is fairly close to fully utilizing that resource.
  • I think, given it is 2022 now and the scheme will take a few years to kick in, that the focus should be on pure EV's. Frankly the like's of Toyota (non plug in) Hybrids are a mature tech, and don't need subsidies.
  • Given constraints around used EV's car's from japan I feel it is essential the focus need to be on new cars. - Perhaps something like bulk order of something 10's of thousands of MG5 EV's, BYD E6's or similar which can then be made available via some kind of social lease or finance program.

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Geektastic
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  #2915349 17-May-2022 22:56
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So those on above that income pay the tax to fund the scheme and then need to earn enough to buy their own EV's? That seems fair...








tdgeek
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  #2915373 18-May-2022 07:49
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Geektastic:

 

So those on above that income pay the tax to fund the scheme and then need to earn enough to buy their own EV's? That seems fair...

 

 

They do get the $8k freebie

 

IMO this scheme is a bit silly. Heap of money to add a drop of EV's. Are there masses of 2 and 3yo EV's in all shapes and sizes at car dealers? I dont think so. When the new EV's, the M3's, Kona's etc etc turn up at used car dealers then its worth looking at. Maybe interest free loans for everybody, the payback period governed by income level. Petrol is up, ICE values will drop due to such a scheme as they get dumped, but at the end of the day no point having a scheme until the cars are ready to buy today, in volume

 

The other issue is how to stop dealers upping the price due to demand?


sen8or
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  #2915375 18-May-2022 08:07
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tdgeek:

 

Geektastic:

 

So those on above that income pay the tax to fund the scheme and then need to earn enough to buy their own EV's? That seems fair...

 

 

They do get the $8k freebie

 

IMO this scheme is a bit silly. Heap of money to add a drop of EV's. Are there masses of 2 and 3yo EV's in all shapes and sizes at car dealers? I dont think so. When the new EV's, the M3's, Kona's etc etc turn up at used car dealers then its worth looking at. Maybe interest free loans for everybody, the payback period governed by income level. Petrol is up, ICE values will drop due to such a scheme as they get dumped, but at the end of the day no point having a scheme until the cars are ready to buy today, in volume

 

The other issue is how to stop dealers upping the price due to demand?

 

 

Do you mean a labour/greens plan that hasn't been well thought through? Someone alert the press, its historical!

 

But in seriousness, so the new grant thing is an either/or situation with the clean car rebate? Thats not so bad, otherwise it would be even more of a kick in the teeth for the squeezed middle.

 

As for car dealers, I don't think you can go there. There is plenty of competition in the market with multiple new vehicle manufacturers bringing out EV/PHEVs as well as the importers bringing in used direct from Japan. If it was a limited / restricted market, then maybe there could be an argument for oversight / regulation, but its not. If you are going to stop / limit them making margin on one element, are you going to subsidise the lost margin on the vehicles with lower demand? Can't have your cake and eat it too




tdgeek
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  #2915378 18-May-2022 08:20
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sen8or:

 

Do you mean a labour/greens plan that hasn't been well thought through? Someone alert the press, its historical!

 

But in seriousness, so the new grant thing is an either/or situation with the clean car rebate? Thats not so bad, otherwise it would be even more of a kick in the teeth for the squeezed middle.

 

As for car dealers, I don't think you can go there. There is plenty of competition in the market with multiple new vehicle manufacturers bringing out EV/PHEVs as well as the importers bringing in used direct from Japan. If it was a limited / restricted market, then maybe there could be an argument for oversight / regulation, but its not. If you are going to stop / limit them making margin on one element, are you going to subsidise the lost margin on the vehicles with lower demand? Can't have your cake and eat it too

 

 

Hence my comment that it should apply to everyone. Lower income, squeezed, middle etc

 

When the clean car rebate came out, import prices increased, many articles that importers were creaming the rebate. There was competition then too.

 

But, the large stocks of used, modern EV's arent there anyway. And what is here, the demand with such a scheme will outstrip supply and keep prices up. That makes it harder to justify, and the fuel savings reduce. So, many will say cool scheme, but I will wait


Dingbatt
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  #2915379 18-May-2022 08:21
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tdgeek:

 

The other issue is how to stop dealers upping the price due to demand?

 



 

Central Control?

 

 

 

And I looked at the “8k freebie” as getting some of my gst back. No purchase, no gst, no rebate.





“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996


tdgeek
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  #2915387 18-May-2022 08:48
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Dingbatt:

 

 

 

Central Control?

 

 

You tell me

 

It failed last time, overseas auctioneers increased the prices by the rebate. In this new scheme the same will happen, so again, we will transfer 569M from the taxpayers to overseas used car businesses. For new EV's it worked well. Some dropped the price to fit the 80k cap, then the buyer got the rebate, the market worked well then, but it wont for used cars. Not until Japan for one example is awash with used EVs that have reached the age where its not viable to keep them, and we get them. Many for sale, many buyers, a more equitable supply and demand situation 

 

 


Geektastic
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  #2915409 18-May-2022 09:06
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tdgeek:

Geektastic:


So those on above that income pay the tax to fund the scheme and then need to earn enough to buy their own EV's? That seems fair...



They do get the $8k freebie


IMO this scheme is a bit silly. Heap of money to add a drop of EV's. Are there masses of 2 and 3yo EV's in all shapes and sizes at car dealers? I dont think so. When the new EV's, the M3's, Kona's etc etc turn up at used car dealers then its worth looking at. Maybe interest free loans for everybody, the payback period governed by income level. Petrol is up, ICE values will drop due to such a scheme as they get dumped, but at the end of the day no point having a scheme until the cars are ready to buy today, in volume


The other issue is how to stop dealers upping the price due to demand?


It’s not free. It’s something else we’re paying for…





 
 
 

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Handsomedan
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  #2915414 18-May-2022 09:07
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I'm curious. 

 

What EV options, under 8 years old and within affordability boundaries for the families on under $80k p.a. are there? 

 

Suitable options, I mean. 

 

Take a large(ish) family  - in a lower socio-economic area, driving a van (think Mazda Bongo or similar) that gets them around at a price they can afford to pay (still probably being paid off from Instant Finance or MTF). 

 

Place that family in a Prius Aqua. OK - place that family in TWO Aqua's, as they won't fit in a single one. 

 

Alternatively, fund their fleet of eBikes...as that's also a part of the scheme. They'll enjoy riding at night to the cleaning jobs, riding across town to get to the kids' sports in the weekends, carrying the groceries back from Pack n Save. 

 

There's (as far as I know) no affordable large EV alternatives to a van or a large car. 

 

I know I have used some tired stereotypes, but they exists and do fit the parameters of the scheme. In fact these stereotypes are the target market. 

 

 

 

I just can't see it working. 





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Handsome Dan needs to stop adding three dots to every sentence...

 

Handsome Dan does not currently have a side hustle as the mascot for Yale 

 

 

 

*Gladly accepting donations...


Geektastic
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  #2915420 18-May-2022 09:13
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I’m with you. It won’t work.

Frankly I’m of the view that since NZ contributes a nugatory 0.17% to global emissions, we shouldn’t be desperately virtue signalling as first cab off the rank in this area.

Of course we need to plan for a gradual switch over to EV or hydrogen or whatever comes next over time, but this desperate rush is illogical and expensive in a country where $100,000 a year income is erroneously thought of as “rich”.





MikeAqua
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  #2915421 18-May-2022 09:15
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$75k is a very low limit.  ~3,540 hours of work at minimum wage (across a household).

 

 

 

 





Mike


tdgeek
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  #2915422 18-May-2022 09:16
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Geektastic:
It’s not free. It’s something else we’re paying for…

 

We seem to be ok with the 8k current rebate, so whats the issue with the proposed 10k subsidy?

 

The rest we are not paying for, the cars less the subsidy will be paid for by the buyer


Blurtie
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  #2915430 18-May-2022 09:27
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Geektastic:
tdgeek:

 

They do get the $8k freebie

 

 

 

IMO this scheme is a bit silly. Heap of money to add a drop of EV's. Are there masses of 2 and 3yo EV's in all shapes and sizes at car dealers? I dont think so. When the new EV's, the M3's, Kona's etc etc turn up at used car dealers then its worth looking at. Maybe interest free loans for everybody, the payback period governed by income level. Petrol is up, ICE values will drop due to such a scheme as they get dumped, but at the end of the day no point having a scheme until the cars are ready to buy today, in volume

 

 

 

The other issue is how to stop dealers upping the price due to demand?

 


It’s not free. It’s something else we’re paying for…

 

 

 

Technically not true.. My understanding was the rebate scheme was cost neutral.  It's something that someone buying a high emission vehicle is paying for...


Geektastic
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  #2915433 18-May-2022 09:32
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tdgeek:

Geektastic:
It’s not free. It’s something else we’re paying for…


We seem to be ok with the 8k current rebate, so whats the issue with the proposed 10k subsidy?


The rest we are not paying for, the cars less the subsidy will be paid for by the buyer



“We” aren’t ok with it.





Obraik
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  #2915437 18-May-2022 09:35
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I don't think a discussion on whether it's good or bad can really happen until the actual details are revealed. At the moment all we know is that it will apply to households with a combined income of less than $75K for vehicles $35k or less. Important things we don't know:

 

  • How much of that $35k is the government paying?
  • If there is any shortfall, will the government provide a loan to the buyer or will that fall on loan sharks?
  • What happens if someone then sells their "new" EV?

I like the concept of what they're proposing but it will depend on the details. If they can get low income families into an EV then this will do something to help both the family and the climate. A large chunk of a families budget goes to travel and vehicle maintenance costs - getting them into an EV could free up $100-$200 a week (depending on where fuel prices go...). It also helps the country move forward to being energy independent so we're not beholden to wars in Europe and the Middle East.





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Geektastic
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  #2915438 18-May-2022 09:38
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Blurtie:

Technically not true.. My understanding was the rebate scheme was cost neutral.  It's something that someone buying a high emission vehicle is paying for...



Surely the idea is to encourage people not to buy high emission vehicles? Once that happens (and it’s not hard - my Mercedes E400d has a 3 litre twin turbo straight six diesel and it attracts no penalty) it won’t be cost neutral.





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