The future of Car Manufacturers

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#2935990 29-Jun-2022 14:45

IMO it will all come down to lithium. Availability and price of lithium will limit/drive EV uptake. It seem to be getting more and more expensive. Chinese manufacturers making tiny cars may be very shrewd, from that perspective. Safety and comfort is another issue.

Mike

mudguard

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#2935993 29-Jun-2022 15:00

Batman:

I'm a petrol head and I hate complexities of petrol cars. A love hate relationship. The stinky smell, the smoky pipe, got to wait for engine to warm up before there is heating, got to work so hard (somehow get the engine to 5000rpm by any means necessary) to get anywhere near the promised power figures, and in doing so get less than 10% of the promised fuel consumption, and if you do it one too many times the whole thing blows up in your face. if you want to minimize it blowing up got to spend so much money feeding it with fresh poisonous oil and hoping the magic liquid will actually keep the super complicated mechanics working nicely.

Isn't that kind of the point? A mechanical symphony of hundreds of parts all working? Obviously great while it is. As for sound, I'd prefer nothing artificial. I went in a Taycan and preferred the electric noise to the artificial options. The other weird thing about EV is car dynamics have almost vanished too, no more FWD heroes to keep up with the RWD cars. Every thing will be mid engined and 4WD, point and shoot. Sure you can programme some variation in, but whose gonna go, oh give me 100% FWD so I can relive my Integra Type R days 🤣

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#2935999 29-Jun-2022 15:02

who says i'm not keeping a few iconic cars in my garage :)

anyway for those in the future who have never driven ICE they won't miss out on anything.

just like i don't see the point of hot rods.

Scott3

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#2936106 29-Jun-2022 19:23

mudguard:

Isn't that kind of the point? A mechanical symphony of hundreds of parts all working? Obviously great while it is. As for sound, I'd prefer nothing artificial. I went in a Taycan and preferred the electric noise to the artificial options. The other weird thing about EV is car dynamics have almost vanished too, no more FWD heroes to keep up with the RWD cars. Every thing will be mid engined and 4WD, point and shoot. Sure you can programme some variation in, but whose gonna go, oh give me 100% FWD so I can relive my Integra Type R days 🤣

I'm picking the shift to EV won't mean an end to powerful FWD car's.

Plenty of of factories tooled up such that it is easier build FWD, and simply install a motor / reduction gear / inverter / charger stack in place of a petrol engine & gearbox (i.e. the Nissan leaf setup).

Of course, they are much heavier than an integra type R, but we already have EV's putting more than it's 145kW to the front wheels.

leaf e+ (160kW)

Polestar 2 FWD (153kW)

Kona / niro 64kWh (150kW)

That said, the shift to EV's is a boon for those that prefer RWD platforms, which are otherwise getting thin on the ground outside utes & luxury brands).

Hero performance EV's will almost most likely all be AWD. Fast acceleration (0-100's) is what brands are looking for to market their car's, and driving both axles delivers in that area.

In terms of dynamic's, the electric motors are so light it is not a big deal where they are mounted (as long as they are sprung, unlike the LDV electric ute which has the motor mounted on the solid rear axle). Pritty much all EV's have there battery pack low down and between the axle's, so yes, closer in weight distribution to a mid engine car.

Tinkerisk

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#2937373 1-Jul-2022 21:14

MikeAqua:

IMO it will all come down to lithium.

Maybe. Maybe not.

Or can we do better?

- NET: FTTH, OPNsense, 10G backbone, GWN APs, ipPBX
- SRV: 12 RU HA server cluster, 0.1 PB storage on premise
- IoT: thread, zigbee, tasmota, BidCoS, LoRa, WX suite, IR
- 3D: two 3D printers, 3D scanner, CNC router, laser cutter

Batman

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#2938616 5-Jul-2022 19:19

Toyota and Suzuki making a new non EV

https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/road-to-net-zero/2022/07/02/toyota-unveils-its-first-mass-market-hybrid-car-for-india/

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#2938620 5-Jul-2022 19:28

Toyota Corolla goes Hybrid-only in NZ

https://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/129180277/toyota-corolla-goes-hybridonly-in-new-zealand

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WyleECoyoteNZ

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#2938643 5-Jul-2022 20:58

If you believe the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Car Ware study from this year, by the middle of the decade, Tesla may see it's market share plummet. Overtaken by Ford and GM

https://insideevs.com/news/595658/study-predicts-both-ford-gm-will-overtake-tesla-by-2025/

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-overtaken-ford-gm-elon-musk-car-wars-boa-report/

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#2938651 5-Jul-2022 21:28

UK investing tens of millions to build 30 hydrogen stations for heavy vehicles

https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/cars/1635402/hydrogen-vehicles-hgvs-uk-investment-infrastructure-refuelling-bp

mudguard

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#2938652 5-Jul-2022 21:38

Batman:

Toyota Corolla goes Hybrid-only in NZ

https://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/129180277/toyota-corolla-goes-hybridonly-in-new-zealand

Toyota make the perfect Corolla for me. In the UK. 2.0L hybrid wagon. I didn't want the hybrid Corolla when I bought mine as it was under powered with the 1.5L motor. The wagon we get is the 1.8L non hybrid, so not only is it heavier than my hatch, but has less power.

Oh Toyota. Please bring that wagon.

robjg63

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#2938694 6-Jul-2022 08:48

WyleECoyoteNZ:

If you believe the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Car Ware study from this year, by the middle of the decade, Tesla may see it's market share plummet. Overtaken by Ford and GM

https://insideevs.com/news/595658/study-predicts-both-ford-gm-will-overtake-tesla-by-2025/

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-overtaken-ford-gm-elon-musk-car-wars-boa-report/

Any company can be beaten, but Tesla has got a terrific head start on conventional car makers - even if they nearly went bust on numerous occasions while getting up and running.

Likewise some massive Chinese companies have pivoted (or set up from scratch) with amazing speed.

The conventional US makers (gm and Ford) may have improved their 'nimbleness' after a few financial disasters over the last couple of decades and Japanese auto makers have developed into the slow to change dinosaurs the Americans used to be.

One thing that Tesla and some of the Chinese companies have heavily in their favour is vertical integration. They have their supply chains within house. This seems to be the key to quick implementation of innovation and innovation is the key to EV development.

I wouldn't count gm or Ford out of the race - But they are certainly looking a bit like the tortoise of the hare and tortoise tale.

In life the tortoise doesn't always win...

Nothing is impossible for the man who doesn't have to do it himself - A. H. Weiler

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#2938737 6-Jul-2022 10:39

Batman:

Toyota Corolla goes Hybrid-only in NZ

https://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/129180277/toyota-corolla-goes-hybridonly-in-new-zealand

Quite like the look of the Corolla Cross.

Driving a RAV4 Hybrid myself, I can absolutely say that with the exception of the CVT transmission, it's brilliant.

Coming from a 2.5l Turbo Volvo, it's been surprisingly refined, albeit somewhat understated by comparison.

The fuel savings in a time of very high costs has been quite revelatory, too.

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alasta

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#2938747 6-Jul-2022 10:49

I'm really not a fan of Toyotas but I have to say the Corolla Cross would be tempting for the fuel savings alone.

Having said that, I'm a bit skeptical as to whether I would reap the full benefits of a hybrid because I do less than 10,000km per year and the vast majority of that is highway driving.

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#2938753 6-Jul-2022 11:02

WyleECoyoteNZ:

If you believe the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Car Ware study from this year, by the middle of the decade, Tesla may see it's market share plummet. Overtaken by Ford and GM

https://insideevs.com/news/595658/study-predicts-both-ford-gm-will-overtake-tesla-by-2025/

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-overtaken-ford-gm-elon-musk-car-wars-boa-report/

I think that what this analysis actually means is that Tesla is going to move from the majority of what is, by mainstream car manufacturing standards, a small niche market to being only one of the players in a vastly increased mainstream market segment.

So, Tesla production may actually double as Austin & Berlin come fully on stream, but market share reduce as Ford, GM, VW Group & Stellantis ramp their BEV production up from negligible to substantial.
In that situation Tesla profit would also increase very, very sharply as the spend on the new plants drops away and at the same time their fixed overheads get spread across a significantly larger number of vehicles produced.

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#2938761 6-Jul-2022 11:19

alasta:

I'm really not a fan of Toyotas but I have to say the Corolla Cross would be tempting for the fuel savings alone.

Having said that, I'm a bit skeptical as to whether I would reap the full benefits of a hybrid because I do less than 10,000km per year and the vast majority of that is highway driving.

You'd be surprised - switching between electric and petrol on a highway trip is seamless and unnoticeable as well as providing some real-world benefits to the fuel economy.

My 2.5l Hybrid RAV4 has a relatively small tank and when I do a trip from AKL to somewhere like TGA or Rotorua, it uses very little fuel. Granted the vast majority of my travel includes short hops across town, in stop-start traffic, but the benefits (I believe) are there.

To counter that though: I am comparing my fuel costs in my present vehicle with my former - which was about as thirsty as a desert-dwelling fish.

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