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Report recently published on impacts of EV transition on NZ electricity supply, and particularly peak demand (Williams et al 2023, below). Concludes that without additional peak capacity our electricity system "can only support a transition of 16% of the light vehicle fleet to EVs with Concentrated charging profiles, and a 43% transition with Optimistic charging profiles". Their Optimistic charging strategy distributes EV charging load over 8 h from 11 pm to 7 am, while the Concentrated charging strategy distributes the load over 3 h between 11 pm to 2 am. The latter rather too concentrated so the 16% figure seems unrealistically low?
Williams et al (2023), Impacts of electric vehicle policy on the New Zealand energy system. A retro-analysis, Energy Reports 9, 3861-3871
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352484723002251
I only skimmed the report but one option that does not appear to have been explored is a parallel transition of household electric hot water supplies to heat pump hot water systems.
As per another recent article, transitioning to heat pump hot water supplies could significantly offset the additional demand from transitioning to EV's.
https://cleantechnica.com/2023/10/06/a-heat-pump-water-heater-will-save-all-the-electricity-youll-need-to-power-your-electric-vehicle/
The figures in the article are US but not wildly astray for NZ. However, it appears to compare electricity demand per ev with household HW electricity reduction achievable by switching to heat pump hot water systems so comes up with a somewhat optimistic result (reduction > ev electricity demand before adjusting for gas HW supplies etc).
A rough analysis based on average NZ household vehicle and HW usage suggests that switching to heat pump HW systems could offset around 40% of EV electricity demand (below). Allowing for 25% of homes using gas and other fuels for HW, the total offset would reduce to 30%.
Those figures are based on total annual electricity usage. One positive of cutting HW electricity demand is that much of the saving would be overnight and therefore could directly offset peak demand for ev charging. The impact on peak demand would therefore potentially be significantly more than the 40% / 30% figures above.
NZ figures
Data Sources:
Also: https://www.royalsociety.org.nz/assets/134-Alpha-Series-Energy-Use-in-Homes.pdf (75% HW systems electric)
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Our BMW iX1 ordered in April finally arrived at the dealership last week in Auckland and we are going to pick it up on Tuesday taking the Te Huia train from Hamilton and small Uber ride to dealership from train station in Auckland. Taking both kids car seats with us on the train hehe and hopefully Uber wont have an issue with us, fitting in the back seat to lug our kids in it. Dealership handed the freebie BMW Gen 3 wall box last week so we could get it installed early and have 7.2kW charging speeds ready to go when we brought the EV home. Sparky forgot to bring Type A RCD with him sigh so he will only finish the commissioning on Monday now.
I got a comprehensive insurance quote for the iX1 and just for fun Model Y back in April 2023 from our broker for comparison and iX1 was $1375 and Model Y $1275 with $800 excess. The broker did warn that premiums are about to go up during the April quote due to flooding claims being handled. I got a refreshed quote for iX1 yesterday and it's now $1794 via the same broker. Trade Me is quoting $3500 and AA quoting $3800 for iX1 with same level of cover. We should cut the current $350/month petrol bill to $50 with the current petrol car going to be sitting in driveway now as backup for emergency use if EV is out. EV will get charged with excess solar from our PV system for free and should now speed up the ROI on the Solar PV system as well.
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@HarmLessSolutions unfortunately this latest Gen 3 BMW Wallbox has no ethernet port or Wi-Fi built in. It has Bluetooth to manage the wall box via the BMW car management app to authorize charging if needed and other things but currently Bluetooth functionality via the BMW app is only available to users in China. It's going to be rolled out as a software update to the rest of world sometime in 2024. That may show or enable WiFi card if there is one in this wallbox. The only bluetooth functionality available to me right now is to update the firmware on this wallbox using a 3rd party app which makes the wallboxes for BMW.
We have 2 phase power at home, and we are very evenly spread with our load overall. Phase 1 which is where I am getting the EVSE connected, is light on load overall so the 7.2kW will not kill it at all due to ducted aircon, laundry and garage running off phase 2 which is by far the biggest consumer of kW in our household. Hopefully when the new SMA eCharger is released in AU/NZ either next year or in 2025, we will upgrade to that so that I can manage excess charging via solar only or both solar + grid or grid only etc. Via the BMW car app or within the car, I can currently set how much amperage to allow BMW wallbox to provide to car and this will be my current trick to use solar prediction data for the day overall via SMA monitoring app to set amperage on the car.
I have also built the evcc.io German community run excess solar monitoring diversion to EV web service at home now but it's useless due to latest BMW wallbox having no network connectivity while their earlier models did. Atleast evcc.io shows me real time solar pv generation and grid feed data as it's running locally vs SMA Energy app on phone which is on a 10- or 15-seconds refresh interval.
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