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Scott3
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  #3245518 7-Jun-2024 00:02
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SaltyNZ:

 

Scott3:

 

getting hit with excessive depreciation.

 

 

 

Never really understood this sentiment. Unless you're buying one of a tiny handful of extremely rare vintage models (in which case it's going to sit in the garage under a sheet) then the car is no more an investment than a screwdriver is. You buy a car to drive until it's time to replace it, not to make money. You buy it, it loses value. End of story.

 



Unless you intend to drive a car until is is no longer economic to keep on the road (entire value of the car depreciated over say 20 years), the depreciation curve is fairly important to total cost of ownership.

While there are exceptions, as a general rule, new car buyers (especially fleets) tend not to keep them until they die, preferring to upgrade either at regular intervals, or when their needs change or a new interesting model comes on the market. For these buyers depreciation.

For example, if a buyer spends $150k on a Landcruiser 300 (a vehicle known to depreciate relatively slowly), and they sell it in 3 years for say $90k, it has cost them 20k a year in depreciation, where if they buy a $150k luxury euro sedan which they sell after 3 years for $40k, it has cost them $30k a year in depreciation. Obviously picking the lower depreciating car results in a significantly lower cost of ownership, and is more attractive.

For a person who plans to trade their car in in ~3 - 5 years, the amount it is likely to depreciate is a fairly important factor in their buying decision. This is one reason the likes of corolla's are so popular as new cars. Generally seen as worse than euro equivalents when under warranty, but people know they will be able to sell them for good money when it comes time to upgrade.  


There also is another aspect to this, where the depreciation which has already happened impacts trade in / old car sale value, and the value of a new car purchase. In the tail end of the pandemic when popular models were hardly depreciating, and one could flick off their 18 month old tesla model 3 (before the model Y launch), or Rav4 hybrid for within $5k of it's replacement cost, it made absolute sense for people to rapidly refresh their car, and get a new warranty coverage, new tires, new wipers, more recent car etc. Now with 18 month model 3's selling for 20k less than the replacement cost, one would need a different reason to upgrade. 




Scott3
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  #3245520 7-Jun-2024 00:25
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dafman:

 

Obraik:

 

It's interesting to me how far ahead Tesla is in sales compared to the other EV options, given how many more options there are now. YTD, the Model 3 is in second place with 195, but its closest competitor (BYD Seal) is only on 89. The Model Y is way ahead in first on 336 while its closes competitor (VW ID4) is all the way down on 65.

 

 

Limited alternatives at present to Tesla, but the horizon is changing quickly. It will interesting to revisit Tesla demand in 24 months as there will be much greater variety for NZ'ers from Chinese manufacturers - these will be latest tech/design, almost certainly lower prices, competing against Tesla's ageing Model 3 & Y designs.

 

An ever increasing erratic Musk is sadly squandering Tesla's early innovator advantage. With no new mainstream models on the horizon, price-cutting /lay offs and recent expensive debacles (ie Cybertruck), I'm predicting bankruptcy within 3 - 5 years.

 



There are alternatives galore to tesla at the moment.

Model Y competes closely with: VW id.4, Skoda Enyaq, Ford Mustang Mach-e, Kia EV6, Hyundai Ioniq 5

Model 3 competes closely with: BYD Seal, Polestar 2, Hyundai Ioniq 6

 

And it's not like the USA, where Tesla holds a strangle hold over reliable charging, or where people are reluctant to buy other brands with now obsolete CCS1 ports fitted.

 

 

 

 

 

I think there are two things going on here:

 

  • Many dealers registered whatever stock they had on hand (and didn't think they could sell) in the last 3 months of 2023 as demo's so they could claim the $7k rebate. This means there are a stack of already registered car's that are getting sold now, but were counted in the stats late last year. I don't think tesla did much of this.
  • EV sales in general have tanked (combination of policy settings, recession fears etc). Those buying EV's now are going against the grain, and it seems these people want Tesla's. (even if you can get the very nice Skoda Enyaq at fire sale prices).

 

 

On the health of tesla as a company, yes completion is getting more intense, but they are still managing to top the EV sales chart's with their model Y, despite it being launched (in the usa) 4.5 years years ago, and the facelift being under a year away. Despite very nice cars like the Kia EV6 and Skoda Enyaq currently being available ex demo at firesale price's, tesla still top's the charts.

The real question is how the will survive the global EV glut.


GV27
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  #3245527 7-Jun-2024 06:13
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EVs do have the benefit of the fuel saving to offset depreciation - the more petrol costs, the closer those two curves get to intersecting. 

 

The real question is do the models that are heavily discounted in NZ continue to be imported once local stocks run low and to a lesser extent, will we keep seeing new models and at what spec?

 

I suspect the general overall slowdown in all vehicle sales is making it difficult to draw conclusions about the EV market. Oil prices are also far lower than most would have expected given the current global political climate. 




dafman
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  #3245554 7-Jun-2024 08:55
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Scott3:

 

There are alternatives galore to tesla at the moment.

Model Y competes closely with: VW id.4, Skoda Enyaq, Ford Mustang Mach-e, Kia EV6, Hyundai Ioniq 5

Model 3 competes closely with: BYD Seal, Polestar 2, Hyundai Ioniq 6

 

And it's not like the USA, where Tesla holds a strangle hold over reliable charging, or where people are reluctant to buy other brands with now obsolete CCS1 ports fitted.

 

 

Fair points, for this moment in history. However, the level of innovation in China at the moment is intense and we are seeing exponential increases in quality from them as well.

 

Where China is innovating, Tesla are sitting on their hands. So while still popular at the moment, the only cards Tesla have to play with in future are refreshes of 5 and 7-year old base designs. I just don't see how they can remain competitive against the Chinese, or any other brand that's heavily invested in innovation.

 

Plus throw in the mix an ever increasing erratic CEO ...


jarledb
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  #3245560 7-Jun-2024 09:17
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I will give you the erratic CEO, but not that Tesla is sitting on their hands.

 

They have kept iterating on their cars since they were released. Do you know of any other car manufacturer that does that on a continuous basis?

 

And they are still some of the most effective EVs on the market.

 

In addition they are not afraid to slash prices whenever they can.

 

Seems pretty disruptive to me.

 

That said, that doesn't mean that Tesla or any other EV producer should be sleeping lightly while the Chinese keep working hard on their EVs. 

 

 





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Obraik
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  #3245591 7-Jun-2024 11:12
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dafman:

 

Fair points, for this moment in history. However, the level of innovation in China at the moment is intense and we are seeing exponential increases in quality from them as well.

 

Where China is innovating, Tesla are sitting on their hands. So while still popular at the moment, the only cards Tesla have to play with in future are refreshes of 5 and 7-year old base designs. I just don't see how they can remain competitive against the Chinese, or any other brand that's heavily invested in innovation.

 

Plus throw in the mix an ever increasing erratic CEO ...

 

 

There's quite a lot of innovation in the Cybertruck which others have yet to do that will more than likely make their way to Tesla's other vehicles. Things like 48v power systems, 800v HV pack that doesn't compromise on charging at 400v chargers, steer-by-wire, rear wheel turning, etc. 





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BlargHonk
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  #3245598 7-Jun-2024 11:46
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Obraik:

 

dafman:

 

Fair points, for this moment in history. However, the level of innovation in China at the moment is intense and we are seeing exponential increases in quality from them as well.

 

Where China is innovating, Tesla are sitting on their hands. So while still popular at the moment, the only cards Tesla have to play with in future are refreshes of 5 and 7-year old base designs. I just don't see how they can remain competitive against the Chinese, or any other brand that's heavily invested in innovation.

 

Plus throw in the mix an ever increasing erratic CEO ...

 

 

There's quite a lot of innovation in the Cybertruck which others have yet to do that will more than likely make their way to Tesla's other vehicles. Things like 48v power systems, 800v HV pack that doesn't compromise on charging at 400v chargers, steer-by-wire, rear wheel turning, etc. 

 

 

 

 

All those technologies have been used by other vehicle manufacturers in production cars. 


 
 
 

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Dingbatt
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  #3245599 7-Jun-2024 11:51
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Obraik:

 

There's quite a lot of innovation in the Cybertruck which others have yet to do that will more than likely make their way to Tesla's other vehicles. Things like 48v power systems, 800v HV pack that doesn't compromise on charging at 400v chargers, steer-by-wire, rear wheel turning, etc. 

 

 

By “rear wheel turning” Im assuming you mean “steering”. A quick Google shows vehicles dating back to the 1990s with this ‘innovation’. Even the current Ford F150 offers it as an option.

 

As for the Tesla CEO being increasingly erratic, I believe he has always been this erratic, it just gets more visibility these days. With a short attention span, he has already moved on to the CyberTaxi and Moonshots.





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GV27
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  #3245600 7-Jun-2024 11:52
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BlargHonk:

 

All those technologies have been used by other vehicle manufacturers in production cars. 

 

 

Some of those technologies are also decades old. 

 

Also worth noting Rivian has just revised their offering so it will be interesting to see how the Cybertruck stacks up against a modern competitor. 


Scott3
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  #3245601 7-Jun-2024 11:59
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dafman:

 

Scott3:

 

There are alternatives galore to tesla at the moment.

Model Y competes closely with: VW id.4, Skoda Enyaq, Ford Mustang Mach-e, Kia EV6, Hyundai Ioniq 5

Model 3 competes closely with: BYD Seal, Polestar 2, Hyundai Ioniq 6

 

And it's not like the USA, where Tesla holds a strangle hold over reliable charging, or where people are reluctant to buy other brands with now obsolete CCS1 ports fitted.

 

 

Fair points, for this moment in history. However, the level of innovation in China at the moment is intense and we are seeing exponential increases in quality from them as well.

 

Where China is innovating, Tesla are sitting on their hands. So while still popular at the moment, the only cards Tesla have to play with in future are refreshes of 5 and 7-year old base designs. I just don't see how they can remain competitive against the Chinese, or any other brand that's heavily invested in innovation.

 

Plus throw in the mix an ever increasing erratic CEO ...

 



We have the recently released BYD Seal (a well reviewed car) going head to head with the recently refreshed model 3, and last month the model 3 outsold the seal by 3.5x Consumers clearly still like what tesla is offering.


Scott3
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  #3245653 7-Jun-2024 12:11
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BlargHonk:

 

Obraik:

 

There's quite a lot of innovation in the Cybertruck which others have yet to do that will more than likely make their way to Tesla's other vehicles. Things like 48v power systems, 800v HV pack that doesn't compromise on charging at 400v chargers, steer-by-wire, rear wheel turning, etc. 

 

 

 

 

All those technologies have been used by other vehicle manufacturers in production cars. 

 



They are pretty rare. I can't think of a non tesla model which has dropped the 12v system (many brands use a supplementary 48v system for mild hyrbid tech). Generally 800v cars use a buck boost converter to charge from a 500v source, rather than doing series - parallel  switching like tesla (but the idea is not new, dewalt flexvolt battereies have used this concept for a long time in power tools). Front axle steer by wire (without a mechanical backup system) in cars is super rare in production cars. I think it is only really the yoke version of the Lexus RX (some infinities did have steer by wire, but had a clutch in the steering collum to restore mechanical control if the system faulted). Rear wheel steering is fairly common, but generally it is found on super expensive cars. I would suspect the cybertruck will be the highest volume example of this (assuming they can release the cheaper versions as planned).


Obraik
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  #3245654 7-Jun-2024 12:12
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BlargHonk:

 

All those technologies have been used by other vehicle manufacturers in production cars. 

 

 

All? Nah. Rear wheel steering and steer-by-wire has been dabbled with by others but it's been limited. The others are pretty unique to Tesla so far.





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GV27
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  #3245714 7-Jun-2024 13:15
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Scott3:

 

Rear wheel steering is fairly common, but generally it is found on super expensive cars. I would suspect the cybertruck will be the highest volume example of this (assuming they can release the cheaper versions as planned).

 

 

The previous-generation Renault Megane had this, for a fraction of the asking price of the Cyber Truck. The comparably-priced Teslas do not have it.


Ge0rge
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  #3245716 7-Jun-2024 13:20
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Honda Prelude had electric rear power steer in the 1990s, again for a fraction of the cost.

robjg63
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  #3245717 7-Jun-2024 13:38
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jarledb:

 

I will give you the erratic CEO, but not that Tesla is sitting on their hands.

 

They have kept iterating on their cars since they were released. Do you know of any other car manufacturer that does that on a continuous basis?

 

And they are still some of the most effective EVs on the market.

 

In addition they are not afraid to slash prices whenever they can.

 

Seems pretty disruptive to me.

 

That said, that doesn't mean that Tesla or any other EV producer should be sleeping lightly while the Chinese keep working hard on their EVs. 

 

 

 

 

Have to agree with this completely.

 

The Tesla model Y you might have bought in 2020 (Obvs not available here then) might look pretty similar to a new one, but they do a constant update/improvement process rather than suddenly launching a new model - so under the skin entirely up to date.  

 

If you look at some of the videos on youtube where Teslas are pulled apart (I am thinking Sandy Munro particularly), they marvel at how there is a constant update and improvement of parts and engineering. His comments about how fast they can go from engineering to production are very interesting. You would just have to see how the original MY has changed over time.

 

But I wonder how many potential EV buyers that may not be aware of this continuous update/improvement process and start to think it may be getting stale?

 

I think the cybertruck was a huge marketing mistake and the smaller/cheaper EV and Tesla Semi (truck) would have been a better marketing bet to keep increasing market volume, but I have been mistaken before thinking that Tesla had made a wrong decision.

 

The Chinese are also working at frantic pace and are certainly gunning for domination.

 

Its actually sad, how the Japanese, who were agile and nimble in the early 70's, leapt in and clobbered the existing behemoth auto makers who were incredibly slow to evolve and left them in the dust. The Japanese companies are now the stiff, rigid, inflexible dinosaurs that they once trounced.





Nothing is impossible for the man who doesn't have to do it himself - A. H. Weiler


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