I think we are going to need a bigger digger.

Forums › Transport (cars, bikes and boats) › I think we are going to need a bigger digger.

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#2682313 29-Mar-2021 09:04

networkn: $46B apparently it's cost to be stuck. Ludicrous! How are they calculating that? I imagine it's all sorts of imaginary costs, rather than actual costs.

The current estimate is USD $52 billion (see below) ...

BBC News - Suez Canal: Effort to refloat wedged container ship continues

today (extracts)

A giant container ship remains stuck across Egypt's Suez Canal after attempts to dislodge it on Saturday's high tide failed. ...

However, in a possible complication, SCA sources quoted by Reuters news agency said that a mass of rock had been discovered under the bow of the ship. ...

Egypt's President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi has ordered preparations to lighten the load of the stranded ship ... removal of some of the ship's 18,300 containers.

More than 300 ships are stuck on either side of the blockage and some vessels have had to reroute around Africa. ...

According to data from Lloyd's List, the blockage is holding up an estimated $9.6bn (£7bn) of goods each day - or $400m an hour. ...

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#2682319 29-Mar-2021 09:10

networkn:

$46B apparently it's cost to be stuck. Ludicrous! How are they calculating that? I imagine it's all sorts of imaginary costs, rather than actual costs.

I wouldn't be surprised if that's including all the downstream costs.

Just the direct costs to be borne by the insurers are going to be horrific.

Container ships of this size are likely just insured for hull and machinery damage of $100-140 million.
The ship's hull is insured in the Japanese market, MS&AD Insurance Group (ex Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Company) - a large Japanese insurer.

The full cost of the salvage operation will be borne by them as the hull and machinery insurer.
They'll be facing claims from the canal authority as well as insurers and owners of ships stuck in the canal and incurring losses due to the blockage.
In addition, owners of the cargo on board this ship and on other ships stuck in the Canal will likely claim from the ship’s liability insurer for losses to perishable goods or missed delivery deadlines.
The accident will likely create trading inefficiencies downstream for weeks, massive congestion problems in European ports, a week to two weeks from when it gets unblocked.

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#2682320 29-Mar-2021 09:12

Sideface:

According to data from Lloyd's List, the blockage is holding up an estimated $9.6bn (£7bn) of goods each day - or $400m an hour. ...

They will still get there, late. So unless it's items that will arrive in an unsaleable condition, then you can really only count the actual losses. Delayed sales are not losses and the losses from delayed sales aren't going to be that high.

Real costs are extra fuel, interest, salvage costs, etc etc. I'd be extremely surprised if that was anywhere near 56B.

frankv

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#2682323 29-Mar-2021 09:18

gzt: Any reason they are not using heavy lift choppers to take a few containers off the top? Slow as but they seem to have the time.

For stability reasons, heavy containers get loaded at the bottom of the ship. So the top ones will be light, and you would need to remove a lot of them to make a difference.

But, depending where it's actually stuck, it might be worth removing containers from one end of the ship or the other?

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#2682328 29-Mar-2021 09:27

Sidestep:

networkn:

$46B apparently it's cost to be stuck. Ludicrous! How are they calculating that? I imagine it's all sorts of imaginary costs, rather than actual costs.

Container ships of this size are likely just insured for hull and machinery damage of $100-140 million.

$100M vs $46B. So just blow the bugger up. (Thinking of the Internet exploding whale story).

Can you undo the tiedowns or whatever and push a few stacks of containers over the side?

wellygary

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#2682335 29-Mar-2021 09:45

Scott3:

Those Maritime engineering standards are great for a vessel used in water, but not really intended for the case where a ship mounts a canal wall.

I was just checking to see if the rigorous maritime engineering standards were the ones referred to in this item

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#2682340 29-Mar-2021 09:56

frankv:

$100M vs $46B. So just blow the bugger up. (Thinking of the Internet exploding whale story).

Can you undo the tiedowns or whatever and push a few stacks of containers over the side?

Most of the cargo is going to be insured, so if someone did this I expect the insurers might be inclined to sue to recover their losses.

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#2682365 29-Mar-2021 10:33

The Washington Post - Egypt’s president orders preparations for unloading the Ever Given ...

today (extracts)

... Only 1 in every 10 ships surrounding the stranded Ever Given has adequate insurance to cover mounting disruption costs, analysis from the Lloyd’s List shipping journal indicated, leading to further concerns over the financial effect of the standstill, which will probably affect different businesses in myriad ways.

According to the report, an estimated 90 percent of nearby ships will be unlikely to claim for “sizeable out-of-pocket expenses” incurred amid the chaos, which has forced hundreds to consider alternate routes, led to port and transit delays, and disrupted oil trade. ...

The salvage effort has truly become an international operation led by an Egyptian, Dutch and German team with tugs now from Italy and the Netherlands, mirroring the global shipping industry and the Ever Given itself.

The ship is owned by a Japanese company, operated by a Taiwanese firm, its crew is Indian, and it sails under a Panamanian flag. ...

tugbots ?

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#2682385 29-Mar-2021 11:06

Good explanation video....

PolicyGuy

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#2682417 29-Mar-2021 11:49

networkn:

They will still get there, late. So unless it's items that will arrive in an unsaleable condition, then you can really only count the actual losses. Delayed sales are not losses and the losses from delayed sales aren't going to be that high.

Real costs are extra fuel, interest, salvage costs, etc etc. I'd be extremely surprised if that was anywhere near 56B.

If that ship contains for example the (northern) summer clothing stock for a ladies' clothing shop, and it doesn't arrive by early May, it will reduce sharply in value. If it doesn't arrive by the end of May, I'd guess it's largely worthless and the shop may have gone bust anyway

That's quite apart from actually perishable foodstuffs: chilled meat will have lost a bunch - or even all - of its shelf life if it spends three or four weeks extra in the reefer container on a ship. From Fresh Gourmet Lamb to dog food. :(

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#2682431 29-Mar-2021 12:11

And if the meat is live then ships may have to resort to resupplying at sea in order to get in extra feed, which is much more expensive than doing it at port while refueling.

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tripper1000

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#2682480 29-Mar-2021 13:13

gzt: Any reason they are not using heavy lift choppers to take a few containers off the top? Slow as but they seem to have the time.

Uneconomic and impractical.

A CH-53 costs USD$20,000 per hour to run (according to Wikipedia). Thats $3.3 million per week if you are/could operate 24 hours a day. The salvage could cost more that the cargo recovered. Better just to tip the containers into the canal, drag them out and throw away the contents. It wouldn't take long before it is more economic to buy a huge crane that would do more work anyway (and is what their plan C seems to be).

neb

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#2682487 29-Mar-2021 13:29

I normally wouldn't re-post memes, but this one is too good to miss:

The captions are "Multiple Persian petroleum fleets" and "300 Spartans".

networkn

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#2682496 29-Mar-2021 13:34

Fred99:

frankv:

$100M vs $46B. So just blow the bugger up. (Thinking of the Internet exploding whale story).

Can you undo the tiedowns or whatever and push a few stacks of containers over the side?

Most of the cargo is going to be insured, so if someone did this I expect the insurers might be inclined to sue to recover their losses.

I'm assuming he was actually joking. The Ecological cost of sinking that boat, let alone dropping containers off the side, would be immense and likely cause other issues.

SaltyNZ

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#2682498 29-Mar-2021 13:36

networkn:

I'm assuming he was actually joking. The Ecological cost of sinking that boat, let alone dropping containers off the side, would be immense and likely cause other issues.

Well yeah, if you think it's hard to shift a stuck container ship that's actually still floating, one that's broken in half and sunk is going to be ... more challenging.

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