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ShockProof

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#317887 24-Nov-2024 09:00
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Has anyone thought about the Leafs becoming future classic vehicles?  The first generation with its slowly failing battery will probably need the battery replaced to be functional.  Maybe the second generation is a better choice, but the first seems more iconic to me.


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Linux
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  #3312338 24-Nov-2024 09:22
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Leaf future classic? 😆



mudguard
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  #3312363 24-Nov-2024 11:54
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I mean a classic has to be desirable in the first place surely? I don't mean that in a negative way.
I have the current Corolla. In thirty years time will people want it? Highly unlikely, if it was the GR. Maybe.
I saw someone selling the first shape Honda Civic. Excellent condition, one owner etc, but as as car is it as desirable as say some of the VTEC models, or a Datsun 240Z etc?

The Leaf might be, but the big test for electrics will the be the actual usability. My thirty year old Civic still gets the same mileage it did when new, but that will be tough for electrics without a battery change.

lxsw20
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  #3312364 24-Nov-2024 11:58
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Has about as much potential as a future classic as an 80s Toyota Corona. 




GV27
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  #3312414 24-Nov-2024 12:19
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Nah, for a couple of reasons: 1) The interiors aren't resilient enough. They're gonna get dinged to hell and 2) Performance-wise, they're boring.

 

I jumped in my Mini the other day and immediately felt like I was driving something enjoyable - I've never got that from my Leaf. It's just not tactile enough. 


Scott3
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  #3312415 24-Nov-2024 12:24
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What constitutes a classic or collectable car is highly subjective.

Lets discuss some key factors.

Rarity: Currently they are extremely common.

 

Historical significance: As the first very high volume, mass market EV, the original Leaf is likely to be historically significant.

 

Demand: I don't expect there will be much demand for classic leaf's in the future. As with all Classic car's, they are essentially obsolete machinery, to the appeal largely comes from nostalgia, and (as a 2014 leaf owner), I don't think there is really a heap to be nostalgic about. We basically just use it as a town car, and take our our larger car on any longer trips.

 

Survival Rates: This one is more interesting. The ZE0 leaf's ended production in 2013, and AZE0 in 2017. I think the bulk of these cars will have a 20 year or less lifespan (largely due to the main battery, the rest of the car is fine). So come 2037, the Original shape leaf's will start to become quite rare as they exit the fleet. That's only 13 years away.

 

Well Maintained: Suspect it is going to be hard to find a ZE0 leaf which is pristine. The combination of their low value, and general use as low cost commuters / grocery getters, means most of them are somewhat rough.

 

Age: For the leaf this is more to do with rarity, you need to wait long enough them to become rare.

 

 

 

My take is that only the original (ideally 2011) leaf, is the only one that has any future classic value. The basis for this value is historical significance of the leaf as the first mass market BEV. While the 2nd generation leaf is undoubtedly a better car, there is nothing historically significant about it, and given it is more modern (and given how the batteries are holding up a heap better than the 24 / 30 kWh leaf's), it will take at least a decade longer before it starts to become rare due to poor survival rates.


 

If you want a classic leaf to be operational, you will need to fund a main battery swap at some point, The below table has a price for a brand new (and modern) battery with CATL sourced cells.

 

An couple of month old price list (assume excl GST) from hybrid batteries for leaf battery upgrades:

 

r/nzev - New battery replacement

 

 

 

 

 

While as a general rule, classic / collectable car's are something that was special / highly desirable when they are new, there are exceptions like Pre BMW mini's, Morris Minors etc.

 

 

 

But you are fighting against how the leaf is quite common (over 650,000 built), and how being Affordable is kind of the point (the 3rd letter in the backronym is Affordable).


That said, there is no doubt that the Tesla Roadster is already a collectable car:

https://www.carsales.com.au/cars/tesla/roadster/

I was going to suggest tesla's, either the model S (first long range mainstream EV), or Model 3 (first EV to pass 1,000,000 sales), but both have the issue, that they are still in production (Model S is LHD only now), with their original body shape, so you are going to need to wait many decades before these become rare.


Wombat1
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  #3312459 24-Nov-2024 17:26
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Whats a Leaf? Asking for my Aussie friends. :-)

If it means anything, a 2008 Tesla Roadster classic sells for $114K, original base price was around $98,950. Not really a good investment for an investment car either.

2008 Tesla Roadster Market - CLASSIC.COM


Radiotron
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  #3312479 24-Nov-2024 20:46
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I'm not seeing EVs as future classics. Curiosity yes, classic, maybe not. There's no Marcello Gandini, Ettore Bugatti et al. Some appliances were designed and made to meet a market. Which, in the long term may be somewhat troubled. 


 
 
 

Move to New Zealand's best fibre broadband service (affiliate link). Free setup code: R587125ERQ6VE. Note that to use Quic Broadband you must be comfortable with configuring your own router.
Batman
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  #3312497 24-Nov-2024 22:37
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the museum won't even take my Leaf if i paid them


ShockProof

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  #3312805 25-Nov-2024 17:41
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No one thinks there's more than a low chance that the Leaf will becomes a classic.  I think it will but might take longer than I think.  Lots of classic cars were manufactured as cheap transport and some have made it to that more desirable old age statu, although, yes, only for those who have an interest in old cars. 

 

One of the problems for any modern car to keep working into old age will be its electronics, microprocessors and software.  I can see this happening to an old Leaf as well. 


Scott3
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  #3312847 25-Nov-2024 19:57
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ShockProof:

 

No one thinks there's more than a low chance that the Leaf will becomes a classic.  I think it will but might take longer than I think.  Lots of classic cars were manufactured as cheap transport and some have made it to that more desirable old age statu, although, yes, only for those who have an interest in old cars. 

 

One of the problems for any modern car to keep working into old age will be its electronics, microprocessors and software.  I can see this happening to an old Leaf as well. 

 

 

I think a leaf might be an interesting museum car one day.


Ideally:

 

  • ~1923 Detroit Electric to show how electric cars were popular before ICE advances (most amusingly the introduction of the electric starter)
  • (if US centric) A GM EV1, and another California EV of that era (Rav4, or S10), to show the late 90's EV period and flop.
  • A Tesla Roadster to show the start of the modern EV era
  • A 2011 leaf and 2011 Holden / Chevy Volt, to show the start of mass market EV's and PHEV's.
  • A ~2015 Toyota Mirai to show the first (limited markets) mainstream Hydrogen car.

Could also throw in some other interesting alt fuel stuff through history. For NZ, the CNG & LNG retrofits are history worth telling. For Europe it is the diesel boom and fall. For USA Corn ethanol is a story worth telling.

 

 

 

Of course museum car's don't need to run which makes things easier.

 

But it is hard for museums, while good condition Mirai etc may be cheap to buy now, it won't be museum notable for another 20 - 30 years, and few museums have the resources to buy modern stuff and store it until it becomes notable.

 

 

 

And of course what a museum is looking for (historical importance), is completely different from what a private classic car owner is looking for (either nostalgia, an emotional connection, or styling that unattainable in modern vehicles).

 

 

 

You do raise a valid point on failure point's. Current classic cars are typically simple enough if a major component fails (say the starter motor), that they can be can be rebuilt (at high cost) locally. But for a modern car, if something like the gauge cluster fails, and the parts are not still in production (and aren't available from a scrapyard), you are kinda screwed...

 

 

 

 

 

The failure of Fisker is an interesting watch if one has some free time in you tube.

 

The Fisker Ocean a nice, high spec EV SUV. (battery up to 106 kWh, motors up to 349 kW etc), and sold at a price reflecting those specs. Then the company went bust, casting major uncertainty over stuff like parts availability. Amusingly 2012 Frisker Karma's (a whole going bust cycle earlier) are often worth more than 2023 Fisker Ocean's. I spose the Karma looks cool, and is pop culture relevant due to the Beiber 911 call.

 

 


robjg63
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  #3312869 25-Nov-2024 21:27
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A Leaf will be interesting one day - First real mass produced EV.

 

Just remember every 'common' car starts vanishing and usually starts to become somewhat collectable at some stage.

 

One day you realize that those cars of your youth, just aren't about anymore - and people pay good money for the few that remain.

 

The problem with EV's will be if/how the battery could be 'revived' and at least make them drivable - Not sure about that.

 

Perhaps they have less chance of survival - so scarcity could drive up the price one day.





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