BREXIT - what comes next?

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#1582129 28-Jun-2016 16:38

mattwnz:

I don't think they ever fixed the problems behind the 2007 GFC. We still have record low interest rates trying to stimulate the economy, which has mainly just increase house prices, making NZers feel rich. I wonder if we will see a deposit guarantee on bank deposits, to stop a run on the banks, if there is a repeat of 2007. The NZ government don't want to see people taking all their savings out of the banks, which could happen, as there was the risk of it happening in 2007. At the moment, savers could end up losing a lot of money if a bank was to collapse. The way it currently works in NZ is savers take a haircut, to allow the bank to reopen, which is poor considering a bank deposit isn't an investment, it is simply a place to store cash, and hopefully not have it eaten away with bank fees and inflation.

They learned they didn't have to address the problems that lead to the GFC. All they needed to do was create more money ("quantitative easing") and give it to the chosen....and make it rare for others. That keeps inflation low despite creating trillions out of thin air. With interest rates low, they can pay the debt back faster....and savers get nothing. But why pay it back? The govts will just print more money....just as our own government came up with a billion $ to save Southland Finance.....or whatever it was called. We all paid for that if the money for it wasn't conjured out of nothing. I hope it was.

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Linuxluver

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#1582133 28-Jun-2016 16:43

mattwnz:

One of the problems with Brexitis London, where many big global companies are headquartered in London due to being in the EU. Now that they aren't they have little option but to setup in other countries in the EU.

Nail it. Right there.

.....and the irony is that London voted heavily against leaving. It knows better.

If Scotland remains in the EU, then maybe Edinburgh or Glasgow will become the new base.....instead of London.

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MikeAqua

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#1582166 28-Jun-2016 16:55

If Scotland leave UK and join EU as has been discussed (I realise this would require more referenda), will there be an international border between England and Scotland?

Part of the leave campaign was better control over the UK's borders. If Scotland ends up as part of the EU, the UK has an international land border, presumably it will want to control this?

Mike

wellygary

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#1582167 28-Jun-2016 16:56

Linuxluver:Third strategy is to shift to Scotland and support moves to separate from England...and remain in the EU. Similarly Ireland.

Scotland becoming independent from the rest of the UK, would not mean it stayed in the EU,

It was very clearly spelt at the time of the Scotish independence referendum that an Independent scotland would have to negotiate its own entry into the EU, and that countries like Spain (and others?) would make that a slow process.

Spain fear Scotland devolving from the UK would enbolden Catalonia and will do everything they could to stop that happening (inside the EU or not)

If Scotland think leaving the UK now will make it better for them, they have another thing coming,

wellygary

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#1582169 28-Jun-2016 17:01

MikeAqua:

If Scotland leave UK and join EU as has been discussed (I realise this would require more referenda), will there be an international border between England and Scotland?

Yip and the French PM would personally offer to shift the camps from Calais to Gretna Green:)

vexxxboy

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#1582175 28-Jun-2016 17:11

There are risks with invoking article 50, The plus is that the UK gets 2 years to negotiate there exit from the EU but the risk is , if at the end of 2 years and they cant come to agreements on everything , they have to accept what the EU offers them in trade, migration etc . Which could be really nasty if the EU wants payback. So before they invoke article 50 they have to know what they want and with politicians resigning on mass , thats going to be difficult.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

TwoSeven

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#1582321 28-Jun-2016 20:13

What comes next?

Actually, a really good bit of european politics I think.

I understand that the lisborn treaty exit clause when enacted prevents the leaving country from negotiating deals with other member countries including trade deals independently (50.4). The purpose of the exit clause is to enable negotiation if the exit criteria, including replacement laws and trade (50.2)It could take a week, but cannot take more than 2 years (50.3)

My feeling is that the EU would want this to happen as soon as possible, but The UK would want this to take a while. It looks like The UK might try to negotiate an exit clause maintaining the status quo with regards to trade but retain sovereignty on immigration and law. It could create trade deals that take effect in 2 years time which is why they might want to delay things.

I think that the UK parliament is what is called a sovereign parliament, I suspect the outcome of the referendum would require a bill to be passed to enact it which could be passed by a majority, but could get blocked by the house of lords.

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Linuxluver

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#1582340 28-Jun-2016 20:37

wellygary:

Linuxluver:Third strategy is to shift to Scotland and support moves to separate from England...and remain in the EU. Similarly Ireland.

Scotland becoming independent from the rest of the UK, would not mean it stayed in the EU,

It was very clearly spelt at the time of the Scotish independence referendum that an Independent scotland would have to negotiate its own entry into the EU, and that countries like Spain (and others?) would make that a slow process.

Spain fear Scotland devolving from the UK would enbolden Catalonia and will do everything they could to stop that happening (inside the EU or not)

If Scotland think leaving the UK now will make it better for them, they have another thing coming,

If Scotland - currently part of the EU via the UK - wanted to *remain* in the EU, then in light the Eng-exit vote the attitude of the EU may be very different. It wouldn't be seceding from a member state anymore...it would be seceding to *remain* a member state.

To me, that is a very different thing.

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Linuxluver

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#1582343 28-Jun-2016 20:39

wellygary:

MikeAqua:

If Scotland leave UK and join EU as has been discussed (I realise this would require more referenda), will there be an international border between England and Scotland?

Yip and the French PM would personally offer to shift the camps from Calais to Gretna Green:)

After the French build a tunnel to Scotland, you mean. :-)

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tdgeek

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#1582351 28-Jun-2016 20:58

The over hype eases. UK will still trade with the EU. They will benefit from no 8.5 billion net paid to the EU. Immigration will be a points system to stop bludgers bludging. Trade elsewhere will avoid EU hammering UK trade deals. UK and EU will settle down, EU issue is stopping others exiting. Is EU a free trade region or a Europe Govt??? IMO thats why UK left. UK is a country not a province.

Linuxluver

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#1582358 28-Jun-2016 21:20

tdgeek:

The over hype eases. UK will still trade with the EU. They will benefit from no 8.5 billion net paid to the EU. Immigration will be a points system to stop bludgers bludging. Trade elsewhere will avoid EU hammering UK trade deals. UK and EU will settle down, EU issue is stopping others exiting. Is EU a free trade region or a Europe Govt??? IMO thats why UK left. UK is a country not a province.

Your last is an excellent point. The UK just isn't a team player. Never has been. Not for long, anyway. The EU is about negotiation, consensus and compromise.....part of a diverse political culture shaped by decades of post-war misery and proportionally elected democracy and consequent practice.

The UK has never learned those skills. They are habituated to a confrontational, win / lose political culture framed by a voting system that gives 100% of the power to one minority party who only got 35% of the vote.....and can dictate to everyone else. In terms of political culture the UK are that person who goes to a committee meeting and stomps out when things don't go his way. The UK sees this as "integrity" and a virtue.

The rest of the committee.......get on with the job.

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JimmyH

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#1582360 28-Jun-2016 21:21

Linuxluver:

They learned they didn't have to address the problems that lead to the GFC. All they needed to do was create more money ("quantitative easing") and give it to the chosen....and make it rare for others. That keeps inflation low despite creating trillions out of thin air. With interest rates low, they can pay the debt back faster....and savers get nothing. But why pay it back? The govts will just print more money....just as our own government came up with a billion $ to save Southland Finance.....or whatever it was called. We all paid for that if the money for it wasn't conjured out of nothing. I hope it was.

I think you are a bit confused here:

1. They didn't "give the money to the chosen and make it rare for others" - mostly it was used to buy up government bonds and drive down interest rates. Monetising the government deficit (spending on health, welfare etc) and buying back bonds isn't just posting cheques to some sort of shadowy chosen elite.

2. The statement that giving money to the "chosen" (whoever they are) helps create keep inflation low despite creating money out of thin air is nonsense.

Firstly, it hasn't been a zero inflation outcome. They have already caused a major asset bubble (think house prices, share prices), which will likely be very painful when it bursts.

Secondly, they have been able to increase the monetary base of the economy without sparking inflation in goods and services markets because there is a severe recession, demand has been weak, banks are unwilling to lend, and the velocity of circulation has collapsed despite the creation of excess reserves in the banking system. There is now a huge overhang of excess reserves in the banking systems of the Eurozone, UK and US. Once these economies pick up, banks start lending, and the velocity of circulation recovers then they will have to drain that excess liquitity out of the system with alacrity. Either by issuing bonds to mop it up and/or running cash surpluses. Otherwise they will have a credit bubble and a big inflationary problem.

3. The Government didn't monetise the Southland Finance payout. If they had, it would show up in the Reserve Bank's accounts. And it doesn't.

TwoSeven

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#1582365 28-Jun-2016 21:33

Linuxluver:
wellygary:

Linuxluver:Third strategy is to shift to Scotland and support moves to separate from England...and remain in the EU. Similarly Ireland.

Scotland becoming independent from the rest of the UK, would not mean it stayed in the EU,

It was very clearly spelt at the time of the Scotish independence referendum that an Independent scotland would have to negotiate its own entry into the EU, and that countries like Spain (and others?) would make that a slow process.

Spain fear Scotland devolving from the UK would enbolden Catalonia and will do everything they could to stop that happening (inside the EU or not)

If Scotland think leaving the UK now will make it better for them, they have another thing coming,

If Scotland - currently part of the EU via the UK - wanted to *remain* in the EU, then in light the Eng-exit vote the attitude of the EU may be very different. It wouldn't be seceding from a member state anymore...it would be seceding to *remain* a member state.

To me, that is a very different thing.

UK sovereignty means that Scotland would need to abide by the decisions of the UK parliament. Under section 28 of the Scotland act (the Sewel convention), it states that "the parliament of the UK would not normally legislate on devolved matters without the consent of the Scottish parliament". I am not aware that the ability to independantly choose to remain in the EU was devolved, instead it likely remains a "reserved matter" and would be handled in the UK parliament. Section 7.1 of the 1998 Scotland act seems to suggest that the matter of the EU would be reserved, but obligations under EU law are not.

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DaveB

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#1582378 28-Jun-2016 22:26

Farage gloating in the EU parliament 30 minutes ago is not helping the situation. Junker is no better!

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#1582379 28-Jun-2016 22:30

PhantomNVD: Please can we leave all the election reruns and regrets and slurs and lies and slander (etc) out of this thread and focus on the future as we think it may become?

1) will the EU 'punish' them to prevent others doing the same or will they fear their own voters should they do so?
2) will this spell the slow death of the EU as a gorvernmental organisation and a possible return to the shared market?
3) will there be a new general election in the UK before Article 50 is invoked?

1) Some of them will certainly want to; we can but hope more mature heads will prevail

2) Yes

3) Perhaps

Looking at the fallout, I am left wondering whether the exit terms ought not to have been negotiated before the referendum, thereby enabling everyone to see just what the lie of the land would be if the UK left BEFORE they were asked to vote on whether they wanted it.

Admittedly the rules technically do not work that way, but I am sure that the sensibleness of the idea would have appealed.

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