Donald Trump, US President #47, US President #45, convicted felon, twice impeached, four times indicted, liable of rape, convicted for financial fraud, guilty of hiding hush money payments to porn actress in attempt to influence 2016 elections

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Forums › Politics › Donald Trump, US President #47, US President #45, convicted felon, twice impeached, four times indicted, liable of rape, convicted for financial fraud, guilty of hiding hush money payments to porn actress in attempt to influence 2016 elections

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SJB

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#3253724 27-Jun-2024 09:29

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neb:

A version I've heard is that Biden has been prepping for the debate by visiting care facilities and arguing with dementia patients.

Unfortunately he can't remember visiting any care facilities.

freitasm

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#3253732 27-Jun-2024 10:00

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SJB:

neb:

A version I've heard is that Biden has been prepping for the debate by visiting care facilities and arguing with dementia patients.

Unfortunately he can't remember visiting any care facilities.

Is this an example of Poe's law - Wikipedia, and I couldn't detect a joke because there was indicator, or do you believe Biden has cognitive problems?

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SJB

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#3253768 27-Jun-2024 11:50

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freitasm:

SJB:

neb:

A version I've heard is that Biden has been prepping for the debate by visiting care facilities and arguing with dementia patients.

Unfortunately he can't remember visiting any care facilities.

Is this an example of Poe's law - Wikipedia, and I couldn't detect a joke because there was indicator, or do you believe Biden has cognitive problems?

A joke. But, as someone who is not all that far from Biden's age, ones memory is not what it was.

kingdragonfly

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#3253772 27-Jun-2024 12:03

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Foreign Affairs: America’s Asian Partners Are Not Worried Enough About Trump
...
A second Trump administration is likely to be far more disruptive for Asia than the first one was. In Trump’s first term, his most radical foreign policy instincts were blunted by the presence of seasoned appointees; these figures will not be present in a second term.

If Trump gets a second chance at the presidency, he is even more likely than before to see allies as trade adversaries, reduce the U.S. military footprint worldwide, befriend autocratic leaders, and challenge the norms that have thus far secured nuclear nonproliferation in Asia.

Washington’s Asian security partners will need to become far more self-reliant for their defense as America becomes simply another transactional, self-interested player instead of the benevolent patron that has long supported the liberal order in the region.

All U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific, including close ones such as Australia, Japan, and South Korea, need to wake up to the reality that a second Trump term will bring new and challenging surprises.
...

SaltyNZ

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#3253790 27-Jun-2024 12:53

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kingdragonfly: Foreign Affairs: America’s Asian Partners Are Not Worried Enough About Trump
...
A second Trump administration is likely to be far more disruptive for Asia than the first one was. In Trump’s first term, his most radical foreign policy instincts were blunted by the presence of seasoned appointees; these figures will not be present in a second term.

If Trump gets a second chance at the presidency, he is even more likely than before to see allies as trade adversaries, reduce the U.S. military footprint worldwide, befriend autocratic leaders, and challenge the norms that have thus far secured nuclear nonproliferation in Asia.

Washington’s Asian security partners will need to become far more self-reliant for their defense as America becomes simply another transactional, self-interested player instead of the benevolent patron that has long supported the liberal order in the region.

All U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific, including close ones such as Australia, Japan, and South Korea, need to wake up to the reality that a second Trump term will bring new and challenging surprises.
...

I can certainly see a scenario in which Japan and South Korea decide they need to quickly develop a bomb. Both countries have advanced conventional weapons programs including cruise and ballistic missile technology, as well as an active civilian nuclear program. I'm not sure about SK, but Japan is already sitting on a stockpile of tons of plutonium extracted from spent reactor fuel.

Either way, if their governments made it a priority they could doubtless have a working warhead in a couple of years. It's not that hard. Other than North Korea, crippled by global sanctions across every industry that would be involved, every country that has attempted it got it on the first try. And with the vast computational resources they could both bring to bear on the problem it is highly likely that their first design will fit on one of their existing missiles. They don't need a 15,000km range ICBM to hold Pyongyang, Beijing or several important Russian cities (e.g. Vladivostok) at risk.

Australia I am less certain of. They could if they wanted to - certainly, they have plenty of their own uranium as well as indigenously designed enrichment processes so they could go down the HEU route. But they are a lot more vulnerable to sanctions. If the US wanted to sanction Korea or Japan and deny them, say, US-designed CPUs, they could laugh it off and make their own. Australia is in no position to do that.

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sir1963

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#3253793 27-Jun-2024 12:57

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SaltyNZ:

[

I can certainly see a scenario in which Japan and South Korea decide they need to quickly develop a bomb. Both countries have advanced conventional weapons programs including cruise and ballistic missile technology, as well as an active civilian nuclear program. I'm not sure about SK, but Japan is already sitting on a stockpile of tons of plutonium extracted from spent reactor fuel.

Either way, if their governments made it a priority they could doubtless have a working warhead in a couple of years. It's not that hard. Other than North Korea, crippled by global sanctions across every industry that would be involved, every country that has attempted it got it on the first try. And with the vast computational resources they could both bring to bear on the problem it is highly likely that their first design will fit on one of their existing missiles. They don't need a 15,000km range ICBM to hold Pyongyang, Beijing or several important Russian cities (e.g. Vladivostok) at risk.

Australia I am less certain of. They could if they wanted to - certainly, they have plenty of their own uranium as well as indigenously designed enrichment processes so they could go down the HEU route. But they are a lot more vulnerable to sanctions. If the US wanted to sanction Korea or Japan and deny them, say, US-designed CPUs, they could laugh it off and make their own. Australia is in no position to do that.

Taiwan would also be a keen player.

SaltyNZ

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#3253794 27-Jun-2024 13:01

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sir1963:

Taiwan would also be a keen player.

Yeah, most likely. Although they already have a quasi-nuclear option in regards to a Chinese invasion. Launch 500 cruise missiles at the Three Gorges Dam and no matter how good Chinese air defense is, enough of them are going to get through to breach it and kill 100 million people in the flood.

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neb

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#3253891 27-Jun-2024 16:26

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SaltyNZ: I'm not sure about SK, but Japan is already sitting on a stockpile of tons of plutonium extracted from spent reactor fuel.

Japan also has major national trauma around nuclear weapons, as well as being a signatory to the NPT and has a non-nuclear-weapons policy as part of their constitution. So Japan won't weaponise.

ezbee

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#3253903 27-Jun-2024 17:38

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Losses did not worry Mao, I doubt it will worry Mao II Mr Xie and friends.
Really they only worry about themselves and their own hold on power.
They may even get a kick out of their people making great sacrifice for them.
Oh and for the party.

Unfortunately Ukraine has given an example.
Giving up your Nuclear weapons, or not having any.
Puts you at mercy of your mad and bad neighbors.

SaltyNZ

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#3253911 27-Jun-2024 18:17

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neb:

SaltyNZ: I'm not sure about SK, but Japan is already sitting on a stockpile of tons of plutonium extracted from spent reactor fuel.

Japan also has major national trauma around nuclear weapons, as well as being a signatory to the NPT and has a non-nuclear-weapons policy as part of their constitution. So Japan won't weaponise.

Japan's parliament has been steadily expanding the definition of "self-defense" under the pacifist constitution for a couple of decades now even without a Trump 2.0. I suspect they might find that Constitutions can be amended pretty quickly if Trump pulls US troops out of the region. After all, everyone who has nuclear weapons has them for "self-defense," don't they? And as far as the NPT goes, it also says that the Five nuclear powers must be committed to complete disarmament (of themselves). How's that working out so far?

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ezbee

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#3253936 27-Jun-2024 20:26

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Japan
To be fair, have been getting missiles dropped ever closer.
UN has been asking Japan to take more 'active role' in peacekeeping ?

Trauma can run both ways.
If you have neighbors suddenly promising a 1000x worse repeat.
It would focus that trauma in an entirely different direction.
If that promise becomes realistically possible.

So China looking to expand from 200 Nukes in 2019 and 1000 by 2030 is not helpful.
Nor is threatening a cataclysmic war with Taiwan just a hoppity, skippity, jump from you.
Maybe a future nine dash line will encompass more than symbolic Japanese territory.

North Korea looking to threaten to toss Nukes around for attention and fun even less comforting.
Given a Kim only needs to have too much brandy one day and..

USA not much of a rock of stability thanks to Trump, MAGA control of GOP.

Ukraine, then even closer example of ...
Philippines and Vietnam unable to protect territorial waters from their neighbors unilateral seizure.
They do speak to having your own significant capability.
UN convention on Law of the Sea, having no clout with a certain neighbor.

gzt

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#3253953 27-Jun-2024 21:16

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SaltyNZ: Five nuclear powers must be committed to complete disarmament (of themselves). How's that working out so far?

To be fair that was working well and trending downwards for a long time. Post-Soviet Russia finding itself on the economic "underdeveloped" part of the graphs and going down then subsequently trying to reassert it's previous regional dominance to solve some problems was the first sign new nuclear weapon treaties were/are required, and much more of course.

gzt

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#3253962 27-Jun-2024 21:31

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ezbee: So China looking to expand from 200 Nukes in 2019 and 1000 by 2030 is not helpful.

Expansion of nuclear weapons is not good but to put that in perspective the current number is about 18% of the USA number. It does not appear to be a serious challenge to USA nuclear dominance. Who knows what will happen I hope they both can find solutions to that.

geekIT

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#3254045 28-Jun-2024 10:23

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Almost time to tune in and turn on...

'Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.' Voltaire

'A patriot must always be ready to defend his country against his government.' Edward Abbey

SaltyNZ

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#3254053 28-Jun-2024 11:12

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gzt:
SaltyNZ: Five nuclear powers must be committed to complete disarmament (of themselves). How's that working out so far?

To be fair that was working well and trending downwards for a long time. Post-Soviet Russia finding itself on the economic "underdeveloped" part of the graphs and going down then subsequently trying to reassert it's previous regional dominance to solve some problems was the first sign new nuclear weapon treaties were/are required, and much more of course.

US & Soviet numbers were trending downwards - but never with any intention to trend downwards to zero. And the other three stayed the same or increased slightly.

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