Our new coalition government.

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#2101445 4-Oct-2018 11:44

networkn:

Fred99:

What are you arguing about here? MikeB4's estimate of 1% not being nonsense seems about right.

I'm arguring that his estimation that 99% of what Hosking writes is right wing "I'm so rich, look at me" BS, isn't correct.

Well he is undeniably rich (by NZ standards), fairly right wing, and typifies a boastful braggart.

What percentage would you put him at? Less than 99%?

networkn

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#2101452 4-Oct-2018 11:54

Just because he is right wing, wealthy and winds people up by boasting about his wealth etc, doesn't make the points he is making invalid, or untrue.

As for percentage, yeah a lot less than 99%. I guess I don't really care so much about the other stuff, I am interested to see if the points an article makes, rings true or not.

I guess it's a matter of perspective.

Rikkitic

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#2101454 4-Oct-2018 11:55

What happened to the off switch? Long ago I saw some of Hoskings' stuff, decided I knew enough about him, haven't looked or listened since. There are plenty of other commentators who make more sense to me. It is a free country. Let him blather. You don't have to tune in.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

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#2101460 4-Oct-2018 12:02

I think you have the wrong end of the stick. I posted here, comments made by him, that I mostly agree with, and out of hand it was dismissed because of who said it, rather than on the merits of what was said.

Even John Campbell has something to say I agree with once or twice a decade :)

Rikkitic

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#2101477 4-Oct-2018 12:37

I'm just making the point, not directed specifically at you, that people have freedom of choice. No-one has to watch or read Hoskings. Personally, I find his manner irritating and his comments not that informative, so I go elsewhere for my fixes. That is as it should be.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

MikeB4

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#2103898 9-Oct-2018 13:14

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/107702066/governments-surplus-grows-so-substantially-it-hits-2022-debt-target-early

A $5Billion surplus. I am not sure how I feel about this

GV27

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#2103900 9-Oct-2018 13:17

MikeB4:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/107702066/governments-surplus-grows-so-substantially-it-hits-2022-debt-target-early

A $5Billion surplus. I am not sure how I feel about this

I know how I feel. Either cut taxes or plough that money into speeding up critical infrastructure.

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#2103904 9-Oct-2018 13:21

Or retiring debt

allio

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#2103907 9-Oct-2018 13:22

The 11 billion dollar fiscal hole certainly continues to prove elusive...

GV27

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#2103912 9-Oct-2018 13:31

MikeB4:

Or retiring debt

I'd rather it went it went into capital assets the country needs now than a mythical rainy day fund. It's raining now.

allio

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#2103922 9-Oct-2018 14:13

At moments like these you tend to get some dramatic moving of the goalposts, so it’s always good to revisit the positions that people have taken in the past.

In 2006 John Key was utterly dismissive of Labour running surpluses.

"Who are the public going to believe at the next election - a Labour Government which has run nine years of huge surpluses and which miraculously finds an appetite for tax cuts just before an election, or an incoming National Government that's committed to ongoing tax reductions to improve our competitiveness?

Once the GFC hit, we never heard any more criticism of Labour’s surpluses, because the low level of public debt they enabled meant National was able to keep the country out of recession by borrowing huge sums at very low interest rates.

Somehow over the three terms of the previous Government, the story got turned on its head. Surpluses were cool again, and National was the responsible party that knew how to manage spending and keep the country out of debt. Labour were the irresponsible spendthrifts who, if they ever got into power, would spend the country into a recession. This was literally National’s election strategy.

Here is a November 2017 Stuff article with comments suggesting quite a few people agreed with Steven Joyce's view of Labour as uncontrollable spenders, and predicting the country would plunge into debt.

So now we have a 5.5 billion dollar surplus. I suspect we’re going to hear an awful lot along the lines of John Key in 2006, and not a lot along the lines of Steven Joyce in 2017. I could be wrong. Can't wait to see!

6FIEND

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#2103927 9-Oct-2018 14:30

It is worth noting that the period that the surplus covers includes 4 months of National government and 8 months of the new coalition.

Economies don't tend to "turn on a dime" - If I was trying to use the surplus as a measure of how the coalition has impacted the economy, I would personally be looking to next years results. (Not to say that a bumper tax take is necessarily a good economic indicator to use)

But since it's $5.5bn extra that has been taken out of the economy (over and above what the govt budgeted to spend) then my preference would be for them to use it to pay down foreign debt.

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#2103941 9-Oct-2018 15:11

I also feel that retiring debt would be the prudent thing to do in order to reduce the burden we hand to our tamariki and mokopuna.

Aredwood

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#2104177 10-Oct-2018 01:41

MikeB4:
I also feel that retiring debt would be the prudent thing to do in order to reduce the burden we hand to our tamariki and mokopuna.

Definitely this^^^.

As when the economy is expanding quickly, a lot of that economic activity is actually funded by debt, both directly and indirectly. So the government needs to pay down debt during the good times. So it can easily borrow and spend during the bad times. As people and companies spend up big during the good times, and cut back their spending during the bad times. Especially as although NZ still has low government debt by world standards. Privately held debt is still well over 100% of GDP.

EG, I feel secure in my job, So I buy a new car. And enjoy life by spending money on things like alcohol, takeaways etc. And of course enjoy driving my new car. The government gets GST, company tax, and income tax from the employees working for the car dealer, takeaways and bottle store. And I have spent more money than I have earned that year, due to buying the car.

The government looks at the accounts and sees that tax revenue is up, and unemployment is down. Excellent, we can now increase spending, as tax income is rising faster than spending.

The economy starts to look a bit shaky, So I cut back on the alcohol and takeaways, and decide to stay at home more, instead of going for drives in my car. I'm not worried about loosing my job, but the boss hasn't hired anyone to replace Fred who resigned last week. And the boss has stopped talking about the new machines that he said he was going to buy. But I'm still making some cutbacks, as you can't be too careful. As I would be glad that I got my car paid off, if I end up loosing my job. I wonder what the boss thinks about the economy. He said that the order book is a bit smaller, but not to worry. As the accounts are healthy due to cancelling the machine purchase, and due to no longer having to pay Fred. Although the bloody tax bill is a killer this month. Due to paying out Fred's holiday pay, and extra GST, due to letting stock levels run down a bit. Buying that machine would have offset the GST bill, and would have given me something to deprecate, now that the company vans have been fully deprecated. BTW, have you thought about when you want to take your annual leave? As you have 3 weeks unused, come and see me as soon as you know some dates, so I can put it into the leave roster.
That was weird, normally it is difficult to get the boss to approve leave well in advance.

The government checks the accounts again, Tax revenue has jumped unexpectedly. Although the business confidence surveys are overly negative. Especially from trucking companies. As they are reporting drops in freight volumes. The economy is going well. Just look at how much extra tax the government is getting. CEOs just need to stop acting like Chicken Little.

It looks like God agrees with my decision to cut back on the alcohol. As my favorite bar has closed due to going bankrupt. And the takeaway store is not so busy either. Hopefully the staff managed to find new jobs, as unemployment has gone up a tad. I have a bad feeling that something is going to happen. As the boss has banned all overtime, and has told me to hurry up and tell him my preferred annual leave dates. He said that he will just choose some dates himself, if I don't tell him by the end of the week.

Government looks at the accounts. Unemployment is starting to rise, and the tax take is dropping. A little concerning, but nothing to worry about, as the books are still in surplus, and the tax take is only dropping from what was almost record levels.

Now I'm worried. OK, no more alcohol, no more takeaways, no more non essential driving. Especially as petrol is getting expensive. I would love to buy an EV, as my current car is starting to show its age. And it would be nice to never have to worry about petrol prices ever again. But way too risky to take out a loan to buy one, right when the economy is contracting. As I will be stuffed if I loose my job after buying it. Time to do a budget instead, and see what other savings I can make.

The government checks the accounts again. Recession, quickly rising unemployment, the surplus has suddenly turned into a deficit. What happened, things were going so good so recently.

GV27

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#2104227 10-Oct-2018 08:16

Giving your kids a country with low debt is meaningless if we're decades behind in infrastructure and critical CAPEX.

The Clark Govt paid down overseas debt. It also left Auckland woefully unprepared in terms of the amount of infrastructure needed to support the population they were jamming into it.

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