Our PM Jacinda Ardern (and the government)

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#2885543 13-Mar-2022 12:35

JaseNZ:
I am confused as I am most of the time with politics.

Do you not need a certain threshold percentage wise of seats to run or enter parliament ie 2% or 5% or something ??

Did the Maori reach this threshold I thought they were under it like NZ first so how did they get seats

Genuine question as it has me confused a little.

Under the MMP system if you win an electorate seat then whatever percentage of the party vote you won equates to the total number of seats you have in parliament. The Māori party won one electorate seat but their overall percentage of the party vote was enough for them to get a 2nd MP into the house.

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#2885544 13-Mar-2022 12:39

marmel:
JaseNZ:

I am confused as I am most of the time with politics.

Do you not need a certain threshold percentage wise of seats to run or enter parliament ie 2% or 5% or something ??

Did the Maori reach this threshold I thought they were under it like NZ first so how did they get seats

Genuine question as it has me confused a little.

Under the MMP system if you win an electorate seat then whatever percentage of the party vote you won equates to the total number of seats you have in parliament. The Māori party won one electorate seat but their overall percentage of the party vote was enough for them to get a 2nd MP into the house.

Ah ok because they only have 2 seats don't they.

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#2885546 13-Mar-2022 12:59

I think the threshold is 5% if you don't win an electorate, which is how the Conservatives almost got into Parliament in 2014, if not for Colin Craig's behaviour.

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#2885716 13-Mar-2022 21:25

This opinion piece is rather scathing of this governments fiscal policies. https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/300538623/things-are-bad-enough-to-make-me-care-who-wins-the-next-election

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alexx

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#2885722 13-Mar-2022 21:58

marmel:
quickymart:

Last poll didn't they say the Maori Party - if the election were held tomorrow - would be kingmaker? Winston/NZ First barely registered:

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/03/national-overtakes-labour-in-1news-political-poll-m-ori-party-holds-balance-of-power.html

Winnie and NZ 1st have been relatively quiet but I suspect they are biding their time. There will be a reason Winnie turned up at the protest in Wellington. NZ 1st would easily outpoll the Māori party when they get back in the limelight.

I'm not sure who is voting for Winston. He used to get a lot of the older people, but I wonder if they might have moved their vote to Labour after the successful government performance on covid. They didn't appear to turn out for him in 2020. Winston aligning himself with the anti-vax and anti-mandate crowd isn't going to do anything to get the old people back on his side (assuming that is where he lost votes).

It appears that he is now competing for the far-right/populist vote with Seymour who I suspect will out-poll him. He might find himself fighting for the remaining votes against Vision NZ (Destiny), New Conservatives (party leader Leighton Baker also seen at the Wellington protest) and others.

My guess is that Seymour gets the 5% and/or hangs onto Epsom - probably both. Maori might vote strategically again, just as the people of Epsom have for years and they should get some seats. Greens always seem to make it through. Not sure about any other minor parties.

The Maori party will be competing against Labour for seats, so I don't expect them to be talking about working with Labour before the election and they have worked with National before when there were different people and different issues (Foreshore and Seabed legislation). But their policies are closer to Labour and the Greens and I don't see them in a coalition with Seymour. In the end it might come down to who the Maori party will support with a confidence and supply agreement.

Edit: minor rewording and fixing typos.

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#2885726 13-Mar-2022 22:10

alexx:

I'm not sure who is voting for Winston. He used to get a lot of the older people, but I wonder if they might have moved their vote to Labour after the successful government performance on covid. They didn't appear to turn out for him in 2020. Winston aligning himself with the anti-vax and anti-mandate crowd isn't going to do anything to get the old people back on his side (assuming that is where he lost votes).

It appears that he is now competing for the far-right/populist vote with Seymour who I suspect will out-poll him. He might find himself fighting for the remaining votes against Vision NZ (Destiny), New Conservatives (party leader Leighton Baker also seen at the Wellington protest) and others.

My guess is that Seymour gets the 5% and/or hangs onto Epsom - probably both. Maori might vote strategically again, just as the people of Epsom have for years and they should get some seats. Greens always seem to make it through. Not sure about any other minor parties.

The Maori party will be competing against Labour for seats, so I don't expect them to be talking about working with Labour before the election and they have worked with National before when there were different people and different issues (Foreshore and Seabed legislation), but their policies are closer to Labour and the Greens. In the end it might come down to who the Maori party will support with a confidence and supply agreement.

I doubt many voted for Labour though no doubt some might have. He betrayed them when he decided to anoint Jacinda Ardern as Prime Minister. As a result I suspect many of them will never vote for him again. Those votes by and large will go to National and Act. He will need to find another group to get his votes from, so perhaps he is aiming at the anti mandate, anti what ever group.

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#2885728 13-Mar-2022 22:30

But even the anti mandate "crowd" aren't that big - if you look at how many voted for Billy TK and Jamie Lee Ross last election, it was only around 28,000. Even if they all voted for Winston in 2023, he's not going to become anyone's kingmaker based off that: https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2020/

Even if all of them numbered 100,000 - and they may do - first of all they have to be convinced to vote and participate in "the system" that they believe is against them. Then they have to want to vote for Winston, etc.

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alexx

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#2885736 13-Mar-2022 23:18

Technofreak:

alexx:

I'm not sure who is voting for Winston. He used to get a lot of the older people, but I wonder if they might have moved their vote to Labour after the successful government performance on covid. They didn't appear to turn out for him in 2020. Winston aligning himself with the anti-vax and anti-mandate crowd isn't going to do anything to get the old people back on his side (assuming that is where he lost votes).

It appears that he is now competing for the far-right/populist vote with Seymour who I suspect will out-poll him. He might find himself fighting for the remaining votes against Vision NZ (Destiny), New Conservatives (party leader Leighton Baker also seen at the Wellington protest) and others.

My guess is that Seymour gets the 5% and/or hangs onto Epsom - probably both. Maori might vote strategically again, just as the people of Epsom have for years and they should get some seats. Greens always seem to make it through. Not sure about any other minor parties.

The Maori party will be competing against Labour for seats, so I don't expect them to be talking about working with Labour before the election and they have worked with National before when there were different people and different issues (Foreshore and Seabed legislation), but their policies are closer to Labour and the Greens. In the end it might come down to who the Maori party will support with a confidence and supply agreement.

I doubt many voted for Labour though no doubt some might have. He betrayed them when he decided to anoint Jacinda Ardern as Prime Minister. As a result I suspect many of them will never vote for him again. Those votes by and large will go to National and Act. He will need to find another group to get his votes from, so perhaps he is aiming at the anti mandate, anti what ever group.

Labour got more than 50% of the vote in 2020, so clearly someone voted for Labour and they didn't need anointing. Winston never says which party he would support and he won't next time either. I can't see the older people that previously supported Winston being particularly impressed by National's flip flopping between "let's let the covid in" and "we can keep the covid out better than Labour". Given the low turnout for National in 2020, the older people that voted for National in 2020 are almost certainly the wealthy ones that voted for National for most of their lives.

The anti-mandate crowd might have one party with a good chance of getting 5% and I'm guessing it's not Winston.

#include <standard.disclaimer>

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#2885737 13-Mar-2022 23:29

alexx:

The anti-mandate crowd might have one party with a good chance of getting 5% and I'm guessing it's not Winston.

New Conservatives?

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#2885744 14-Mar-2022 00:55

I’m hoping COVID is not an issue next election. It’s a little way off yet but I’m currently leaning towards National.

Glad that it was Labour in for the COVID situation though. Even though I see National as pro business I don’t like having increased amounts of earned money taken off me, weather it be tax creep from higher wages, forced redundancy schemes or other things.

Doesn’t effect me, but I also feel for people that live to close to new Auckland railway proposal and have their money stolen off them for living to close to it.

Plus I’m concerned about the amount of borrowing they intend on doing to, saw words of Grant Robertson in media to effect of need to look at borrowing in different light. That has me concerned.

I know the world is trying to reduce oil usage but maybe allowing new oil exploration around NZ would be a good thing, as if we rely on it and it’s going to be used regardless what difference does it make where it comes from.

Know Labour stopped new exploration, have no idea what opposition view is to it.

GV27

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#2885806 14-Mar-2022 08:14

What a difference a week makes:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-accepts-cost-of-living-crisis-petrol-tax-cuts-among-government-options-to-ease-burden/CXQ72CW4C2FMER3PCEC5ARDLYI/

"Undoubtedly, for many families, there is [a cost of living crisis]. But I think the most important thing is regardless of what anyone's calling it, it's whether or not we accept that there's something that needs to be done," Ardern told RNZ.

She indicated Cabinet was today considering temporary relief on some of the tax that Kiwi motorists paid for fuel. "We are looking at additional things we can do to ease the pressure on families. We will look to move very quickly on decisions. Any decisions taken today, we will speak to this afternoon."

Again, reactionary. Just like the Covid response has been for some time, the cycling bridge, the Kaianga Ora tenancies and other things for the last five years.

The only reason anything actually happens is when it's clear National is making some ground, and even then it's only because Labour MPs have already rubbished the idea or suggestions that they end up adopting themselves. Announcements of things to head off political pressure, which ultimately lead nowhere. Inquiries that make recommendations that aren't followed through on, working groups that end up having their work ignored and key policy platforms quietly discarded. And the only things that do get progressed are high-level centralisation projects that the electorate doesn't want or need.

I'm not sure whether National is doing much to win the next election but Labour seem to be doing their best to lose it.

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#2885808 14-Mar-2022 08:22

GV27:
What a difference a week makes:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-accepts-cost-of-living-crisis-petrol-tax-cuts-among-government-options-to-ease-burden/CXQ72CW4C2FMER3PCEC5ARDLYI/

"Undoubtedly, for many families, there is [a cost of living crisis]. But I think the most important thing is regardless of what anyone's calling it, it's whether or not we accept that there's something that needs to be done," Ardern told RNZ.

She indicated Cabinet was today considering temporary relief on some of the tax that Kiwi motorists paid for fuel. "We are looking at additional things we can do to ease the pressure on families. We will look to move very quickly on decisions. Any decisions taken today, we will speak to this afternoon."

Again, reactionary. Just like the Covid response has been for some time, the cycling bridge, the Kaianga Ora tenancies and other things for the last five years.

The only reason anything actually happens is when it's clear National is making some ground, and even then it's only because Labour MPs have already rubbished the idea or suggestions that they end up adopting themselves. Announcements of things to head off political pressure, which ultimately lead nowhere. Inquiries that make recommendations that aren't followed through on, working groups that end up having their work ignored and key policy platforms quietly discarded. And the only things that do get progressed are high-level centralisation projects that the electorate doesn't want or need.

I'm not sure whether National is doing much to win the next election but Labour seem to be doing their best to lose it.

I think it’s a sign of poor leadership and lack of vision/planning when you are making decisions in this manner.

On another note, the “let’s get Wellington moving” campaign has spent $35m on consultants and about $250k on actual changes. Another example of wasteful spending.

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#2885812 14-Mar-2022 08:30

marmel:

On another note, the “let’s get Wellington moving” campaign has spent $35m on consultants and about $250k on actual changes. Another example of wasteful spending.

You can throw Light Rail consultation into the mix as well. The more they spent looking at it, the more it got bollocksed up.

One of the Urban Planning Twitter Accounts has been sifting through OIA'd docs:

https://twitter.com/ScootFoundation/status/1502792555330957315

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#2885813 14-Mar-2022 08:32

GV27:

marmel:

On another note, the “let’s get Wellington moving” campaign has spent $35m on consultants and about $250k on actual changes. Another example of wasteful spending.

You can throw Light Rail consultation into the mix as well. The more they spent looking at it, the more it got bollocksed up.

One of the Urban Planning Twitter Accounts has been sifting through OIA'd docs:

https://twitter.com/ScootFoundation/status/1502792555330957315

If not for Winston, they would have gone ahead with the original plan which was a joke.

As much as I dislike Winston, he was probably the saving grace in the first 3 Year term in many ways. Pity the cost was so high.

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#2885816 14-Mar-2022 08:43

Now the PM says there *is* a cost of living crisis and indicates they are going to cut fuel tax.

It's all very reactionary.

Edit : I see GV27 posted similar above.

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