Christopher Luxon, New Zealand Prime Minister 2023

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Forums › Politics › Christopher Luxon, New Zealand Prime Minister 2023

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#3171629 14-Dec-2023 00:23

ezbee:

We don't know how lucky we are...

Argentina when the inauguration speech includes 'There is No Money'

UK seems to have many chickens coming home to roost.

Aussie is the even more lucky country with Coal, in demand LNG, and minerals of all sorts.
Oh and most importantly Pineapple Lumps. :-)

Hah, no. We are not a lucky country. The general public will vote for whoever the mainstream media (controlled by Murdoch) says - which usually means Boomer plants. It's only very recently where newer generations have recognised what voting does.

Also, Pineapple Lumps? Those aren't even sold here, except in the foreign food aisle.

quickymart

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#3171725 14-Dec-2023 15:25

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/pm-christopher-luxon-finance-minister-nicola-willis-face-questions-in-parliament-on-ute-tax-interislander-ferries-and-gdp-figures/SBZIKVVE7ZGVNP7SVWLCDHV4KY/

During Question Time which followed the ministerial statement discussion, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon dodged questions from Labour deputy leader Carmel Sepuloni about the Government suspending regulatory impact statements by criticising the party’s economic management.

Does this guy ever answer questions? I mean, come on...this is transport related, and Christ only knows that he used to run an airline 🙄

tdgeek

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#3171758 14-Dec-2023 16:30

quickymart:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/pm-christopher-luxon-finance-minister-nicola-willis-face-questions-in-parliament-on-ute-tax-interislander-ferries-and-gdp-figures/SBZIKVVE7ZGVNP7SVWLCDHV4KY/

During Question Time which followed the ministerial statement discussion, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon dodged questions from Labour deputy leader Carmel Sepuloni about the Government suspending regulatory impact statements by criticising the party’s economic management.

Does this guy ever answer questions? I mean, come on...this is transport related, and Christ only knows that he used to run an airline 🙄

Artform mate, artform.

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#3171801 14-Dec-2023 21:47

Follow-on opinion piece: https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/12/lloyd-burr-opinion-christopher-luxon-s-ferry-snub-shows-he-s-all-talk-on-infrastructure.html

Did they actually talk about upgrading (or doing anything with) the ferry terminal specifically on the campaign trail? I remember hearing about endless roads being built but little about rail. I ask as I didn't really pay much attention to whatever Luxon said as it all just seemed to be along the lines of the same party slogans/we can do it better/I ran an airline, etc etc etc.

GV27

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#3171831 15-Dec-2023 06:56

Thomas Coughlan seems to have something indicating that a cost estimate of $2.6b was given in early November and then in late November it had gone up to $3b.

TBH Willis is entirely right be to suspicious of costings from agencies that serve up a $400m increase in a project cost in less than a month.

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#3171835 15-Dec-2023 07:24

She wants them to come up with plan that makes the service reliable. No can do. They will no doubt avoid the new terminals as there will be no new ships. They will just repair the old ships as thy fail. No issue with that, the issue is demanding a reliable service from vessels that are end of life, and when they are out of service for repairs, she will complain. The cost of living crisis was also mentioned, so again, its tax cut based, not an infrastructure decision.

Handle9

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#3171840 15-Dec-2023 07:45

GV27:
Thomas Coughlan seems to have something indicating that a cost estimate of $2.6b was given in early November and then in late November it had gone up to $3b.

TBH Willis is entirely right be to suspicious of costings from agencies that serve up a $400m increase in a project cost in less than a month.

Given the original budget was circa $1.45bn it’s barely even surprising it’s gone up another 400 million.

The concerning part would likely have been the delivered cost - if the design budget was that far out before they poured concrete or cut steel god only knows what the as built cost would have been.

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GV27

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#3171843 15-Dec-2023 07:58

tdgeek:

The cost of living crisis was also mentioned, so again, its tax cut based, not an infrastructure decision.

The cost of living crisis was mentioned because you can't have a government blowing out cost forecasts on projects willy nilly and expect everyone else to keep tightening their belts so you can just keep enabling huge project budget increases.

This is a major problem with infrastructure in this country and the levels of tax required to fund all of our infrastructure blowouts would be extortionate. At some point someone needs to say 'enough' and ask some questions about how this keeps happening.

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#3171844 15-Dec-2023 07:59

Death, taxes and infrastructure cost blow outs, 3 absolute certainties in life.

Just look at the debacle of the Christchurch stadium, I think thats about double (if not triple) its original budget, but that seems to be the way of consultants, get the plan approved on meagre information with lots of "PC sum" type clauses, wait for 2 years for some sort of decision to be made on the original plan, then when approved, roll out the cost blowouts. Rinse and repeat for the next project.

tdgeek

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#3171848 15-Dec-2023 08:18

GV27:

The cost of living crisis was mentioned because you can't have a government blowing out cost forecasts on projects willy nilly and expect everyone else to keep tightening their belts so you can just keep enabling huge project budget increases.

This is a major problem with infrastructure in this country and the levels of tax required to fund all of our infrastructure blowouts would be extortionate. At some point someone needs to say 'enough' and ask some questions about how this keeps happening.

It was mentioned as the tax cut policy is the flagship policy and they need to circumnavigate around everything to afford it. It wasnt affordable when it was announced, less so now due to the extra holes created by the coalition agreement. If we want more infrastructure it has to be paid for.

I watched a TV article not too long ago about going back to ships, from Auckland and Tauranga to Lyttelton and Port Chalmers. IIRC I "think" it was a bit cheaper, the downside is that it takes longer. Thats a fallacy as the extra time is a one off in the transition phase. It would take trucks off the road from the top of NZ to the bottom, they would be used for the "last mile" Thats good for roading costs, and travel time for the rest of us. This would make total sense for the Cook St ferry problem. That service will reduce a reasonable amount, leaving the lease of smaller vessels and the Wellington and Picton infrastructure can remain as it is. It can serve as people carriers and trucks for the lower half of NZ

GV27

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#3171849 15-Dec-2023 08:25

tdgeek:

It was mentioned as the tax cut policy is the flagship policy and they need to circumnavigate around everything to afford it. It wasnt affordable when it was announced, less so now due to the extra holes created by the coalition agreement. If we want more infrastructure it has to be paid for.

Well yea, but there has be some question over whether something is actually value for money at some point. Put this alongside the road tunnels in Auckland, the light rail debacle, the climate rebuild in the Hawkes Bay and then throw in any other natural disaster or climate driven stuff in the mean time. You're now talking near to hundreds of billions of dollars.

And a lot of these projects started out as small-time. $6b for Light Rail in Auckland for both Mt Roskill and Westgate. $2b for a bridge crossing across the Auckland Harbour. $1.4b for the iRex project. That blew out to $30b for Light Rail for one branch, another $20b for tunnels under the harbour and now the iRex project is already 100% over initial forecast.

The choice shouldn't be 'no new infrastructure' or 'damn the torpedos, gold-plate the hell out of everything, never query cost increases, ever'. The choice should simply come down to what is the best solution the country can actually afford, and ideally without resorting to 100% income taxes.

E: This is fitting, linked from GA this morning:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3H8lthoc_a8

SaltyNZ

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#3171850 15-Dec-2023 08:27

GV27:

Thomas Coughlan seems to have something indicating that a cost estimate of $2.6b was given in early November and then in late November it had gone up to $3b.

TBH Willis is entirely right be to suspicious of costings from agencies that serve up a $400m increase in a project cost in less than a month.

The whole concept of bidding is broken by design.

Everyone says "we won't necessarily accept the lowest bid!" but we all know that the highest bid is a non-starter, and the lowest bid will definitely have preference. Especially when someone can point at the other bids and say "your tax dollars are being wasted!"

You get whatever you incentivise. So bidders trim out every bit of fat, every contingency. They take out everything except the bare bones, everything went right first time, there were never any surprises items to deliver the project. Every bid is unrealistically low. Then we pick one, and - shock! - the time, the cost, or more often both go up and up as all the stuff that was cut out to stop the bid from being rejected out of hand ends up happening, because it was inevitable that they would.

Then whoever is in opposition screams about wasted tax dollars. Typically the likes of our glorious new leaders scream the loudest, ever knowing the cost of everything but the value of nothing.

The alternative approach is to spend much longer studying the issue in order to attempt to uncover as many of the surprises as possible up front. Then again whoever isn't in charge screams about how the government is wasting tax dollars on expensive consultants who aren't even delivering anything. Not that anyone in charge at the moment would do something like that either.

Consequently - everything's ****ed because we're so cheap we either cancel it after most of the money spent on studying it has been spent but before it begins, or we complete it, don't do the project, and then wonder why nothing ever gets better.

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SaltyNZ

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#3171852 15-Dec-2023 08:29

GV27:

And a lot of these projects started out as small-time. $6b for Light Rail in Auckland for both Mt Roskill and Westgate. $2b for a bridge crossing across the Auckland Harbour. $1.4b for the iRex project. That blew out to $30b for Light Rail for one branch, another $20b for tunnels under the harbour and now the iRex project is already 100% over initial forecast.

It didn't help that they chose the option that was the most expensive and with the least utility. Put it above ground where there are relatively few people to use it, and then tunnel under the places where everyone would. Great thinking, guys.

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#3171853 15-Dec-2023 08:35

SaltyNZ:

It didn't help that they chose the option that was the most expensive and with the least utility. Put it above ground where there are relatively few people to use it, and then tunnel under the places where everyone would. Great thinking, guys.

I do the consultation exercises whenever they come up in my inbox. It's fair to say they really, really undersold the idea of an active mode bridge vs. the cost of the tunnels; and then on top of that picked a simply insane tunnel alignment. It was a pretty gratuitous exercise in shopping for your desired outcome.

I would also note that isn't the first major Kiwirail issue that we've seen in recent times - the prolonged shut-downs on the Auckland rail network that effectively went un-mentioned outside of Auckland media, while Kiwirail got hauled in front of a committee for a 'Please Explain' when Wellington went three days with moderate delays on their network.

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#3171854 15-Dec-2023 08:43

GV27:

I do the consultation exercises whenever they come up in my inbox. It's fair to say they really, really undersold the idea of an active mode bridge vs. the cost of the tunnels; and then on top of that picked a simply insane tunnel alignment. It was a pretty gratuitous exercise in shopping for your desired outcome.

I would also note that isn't the first major Kiwirail issue that we've seen in recent times - the prolonged shut-downs on the Auckland rail network that effectively went un-mentioned outside of Auckland media, while Kiwirail got hauled in front of a committee for a 'Please Explain' when Wellington went three days with moderate delays on their network.

Agreed. I do those too and my eyes were rolling SO HARD at the options they put up. As you say - study designed to herd everyone towards a desired outcome.

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