Christopher Luxon, New Zealand Prime Minister 2023

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#3172122 15-Dec-2023 15:24

Technofreak:

I agree in principle with the first part of your post but not to the extent of providing a service for the sake of the service where there is no proper demand.

Bluebridge seem to be able to do it without government money and make a profit. Why not NZR?

As I understand it this project was not merely to replace existing ferries but also to provide roll-on, roll-off rail freight service as well. You can certainly argue there is no demand for inter-island roll-on, roll-off rail freight services ... but there is no such service right now, I don't think (definitely could be wrong about that though). As the man once said "If you build it, they will come". We should be encouraging rail freight for lots of reasons including that it gets trucks off the roads so car journeys are quicker and the highways need less maintenance.

And again, you could also argue that they should have done a bunch of studies to better show whether or not that was a good idea - but as multiple examples in this very thread have showed politicians in both camps are not above calling such work wasted tax money and using it for political point scoring either.

And as for Bluebridge - yes, agreed, but that doesn't invalidate the argument at all. Plenty of airlines serve New Zealand and manage to make a profit. So why should we have bailed out Air New Zealand not once, but twice?

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#3172124 15-Dec-2023 15:28

SaltyNZ:

We should be encouraging rail freight for lots of reasons including that it gets trucks off the roads so car journeys are quicker and the highways need less maintenance.

We should also encourage younger people not to smoke so that in the future, there will be less costs treating tobacco-related health issues and possibly extending people's lives, which could help productivity in this country.

But here we are.

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#3172128 15-Dec-2023 15:48

Technofreak:

There's a slight difference between a force majeure and replacements/upgrades which should be planned and budgeted for.

P.S.

I don't think the government bailed out Air NZ during Christopher's tenure. That said the bail out from the Ansett collapse was repaid in spades.

Quite correct. Unlike other airlines around the world our Govt did not bail out its national carrier during Covid. The Government provided Commercial Standby Facilities (a loan at a very high interest rate given the prevailing interest rates), had contested freight contracts (of which AirNZ won some but not all) and participated pari passu with all shareholders during the rights issue. There was no bail out (especially compared to other companies - like Ruapehu Alpine Lifts or AJ Hackett or anyone awarded STAPP funding.

Sixth Labour Government - "Vision without Execution is just Hallucination"

ockel

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#3172129 15-Dec-2023 15:51

freitasm:

SaltyNZ:

We should be encouraging rail freight for lots of reasons including that it gets trucks off the roads so car journeys are quicker and the highways need less maintenance.

We should also encourage younger people not to smoke so that in the future, there will be less costs treating tobacco-related health issues and possibly extending people's lives, which could help productivity in this country.

But here we are.

Under 25's smoking daily has now dropped to 3% (below the 5% target for 2025) under the current legislation (before the Smokefree Environments and Regulated Products (Smoked Tobacco) Amendment Bill came into effect).

Pasifika rates for daily smoking have declined to 10% compared to the 6.8% for the broader population.

Tell me what isnt working for the current legislation?

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#3172132 15-Dec-2023 16:00

ockel:

Pasifika rates for daily smoking have declined to 10% compared to the 6.8% for the broader population.

Tell me what isnt working for the current legislation?

That. I have no link, because Tova O'Brien quoted it in an interview with the person Phillip Morris hired to show the new legislation was not required on her podcast that in order to get Māori and Pasifika down to representative rates by the target date, other studies suggested the pre-ban was not going to be enough.

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#3172134 15-Dec-2023 16:07

SaltyNZ:

As I understand it this project was not merely to replace existing ferries but also to provide roll-on, roll-off rail freight service as well. You can certainly argue there is no demand for inter-island roll-on, roll-off rail freight services ... but there is no such service right now, I don't think (definitely could be wrong about that though). As the man once said "If you build it, they will come". We should be encouraging rail freight for lots of reasons including that it gets trucks off the roads so car journeys are quicker and the highways need less maintenance.

And again, you could also argue that they should have done a bunch of studies to better show whether or not that was a good idea - but as multiple examples in this very thread have showed politicians in both camps are not above calling such work wasted tax money and using it for political point scoring either.

And as for Bluebridge - yes, agreed, but that doesn't invalidate the argument at all. Plenty of airlines serve New Zealand and manage to make a profit. So why should we have bailed out Air New Zealand not once, but twice?

Funnily enough the Road Haulage Association have said it's the right decision. I wonder why.

Yes, it's an extra $1.5Bn but has this really been thought through with a rational analysis?

You'll get an enhanced port facility that will last 50-100yrs.

What about the lost productivity gains of roll-on roll-rail across the Cook Straight?

What's the cost/benefit analysis of this additional port infrastructure (for the country as a whole, not just for Kiwi Rail as a SOE) compared to one of National's new roads of national significance?

Can't help but feel an extra $1.5Bn on this port project is going to provide a better return in the long term than extending the Waikato expressway roughly 20km further along SH1 south of Cambridge.

ockel

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#3172136 15-Dec-2023 16:13

Technofreak:

Isn't New Zealand Rail an SOE? In other words a government owned business.

Why are they going cap in hand to the government for all of this money? Like any other business why don't they go to the normal financial market sources to fund these projects? Perhaps there may be a government top up for any "social service" or betterment for the country in general that deserves a contribution from the government.

If it doesn't stack up financially then why do it at all?

While on the face of it it seems the Finance Minister is being "difficult" over this I think there needs to be some checks and balances on where our tax dollars are spent. The angst in our media over this needs to better directed. NZR needs to learn to operate like any other business and not expect the government to bail them out.

Kiwirail has little to no debt at present. It has a pre-tax operating surplus of $150m which is unlikely to be enough to service the large debt that the project represented (even using the NZDMO as the umbrella funder with essentially sovereign guarantee).

So it called upon its shareholders to fund the project. But with the recent takeover there is a new shareholder who doesnt like the project that the Kiwirail board is presenting. The governance from the Kiwirail board and the previous shareholder has been shocking IMHO.

Put a prudent persons hat on - lets make that prudent person your significant other. You want to buy a new car - it has more room, more cargo capacity and, because its new, has lower emissions. The car is going to cost you $400m and you need to spend another $375m to improve the driveway at your house. Your SO signs off on the idea in theory.

Then you work out it wont fit in the garage. And you need to spend another $600m to make the garage bigger. Thats more than the car is going to cost you. What would your SO say? Mine would say how about we get a different car. Alarm bells would be ringing. Especially as you havent signed the paperwork at the dealer yet. But you'd have to compromise the amount of cargo you can carry - that 3T flatbed going to 2T just wont cut it.

So say you convince your SO that the garage redevelopment will be worth it. Except that a year later (during the timeframe that your speccing your car, they havent even started building it yet) you work out that the garage cant get big enough and now you need to buy the next door property, bowl it and build a whole new house and garage.

Your car, which was $400m but is now $550m needs to have not $375m spent associated with owning the car but $2.5bn to buy the house next door and build a whole new structure.

At what point should your significant other step in and say that you've completely lost the plot on this car that you've agreed to buy but the factory has started building yet???

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#3172137 15-Dec-2023 16:18

ockel:

At what point should your significant other step in and say that you've completely lost the plot on this car that you've agreed to buy but the factory has started building yet???

Does your SO send you to the dog house when you spend a huge amount of time and effort scoping out a project so there aren't any surprises once you are ready to start it? Because in your analogy, that's what happens. Not that I disagree with your assessment of governance in this specific case, but in general.

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tdgeek

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#3172139 15-Dec-2023 16:23

IMO, what Evil said

What's the cost/benefit analysis of this additional port infrastructure (for the country as a whole, not just for Kiwi Rail as a SOE) compared to one of National's new roads of national significance?

Its a huge % increase but in the greater scheme of things, the infrastructure will last decades. Its an investment. How many km of roads do you get for 1.5B?

ockel

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#3172140 15-Dec-2023 16:26

SaltyNZ:

ockel:

Pasifika rates for daily smoking have declined to 10% compared to the 6.8% for the broader population.

Tell me what isnt working for the current legislation?

That. I have no link, because Tova O'Brien quoted it in an interview with the person Phillip Morris hired to show the new legislation was not required on her podcast that in order to get Māori and Pasifika down to representative rates by the target date, other studies suggested the pre-ban was not going to be enough.

But the Smokefree 2025 goal is so that by 2025 fewer than 5% of New Zealanders will be smokers. Ideally it would be below 5% for each gender and ethnic cohort but its a population measure.

The stats are here. Sadly the survey never covers smoking for those under age nor for vaping for those under age. Good thing prohibiting the sale or supply of tobacco or vape products means that they dont do it. Kinda like lifting the age of smoking would have meant that this under age cohort wouldnt have taken up the habit (sic).

https://minhealthnz.shinyapps.io/nz-health-survey-2022-23-annual-data-explorer/_w_6548a083/#!/explore-topics

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#3172142 15-Dec-2023 16:28

tdgeek:

IMO, what Evil said

What's the cost/benefit analysis of this additional port infrastructure (for the country as a whole, not just for Kiwi Rail as a SOE) compared to one of National's new roads of national significance?

Its a huge % increase but in the greater scheme of things, the infrastructure will last decades. Its an investment. How many km of roads do you get for 1.5B?

About 32km.

Sixth Labour Government - "Vision without Execution is just Hallucination"

SaltyNZ

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#3172148 15-Dec-2023 16:38

ockel:

But the Smokefree 2025 goal is so that by 2025 fewer than 5% of New Zealanders will be smokers. Ideally it would be below 5% for each gender and ethnic cohort but its a population measure.

Whilst that is a whole separate line of attack by this government which also needs to be addressed, the previous governments recognised a Te Tiriti obligation to Māori to ensure their health outcomes were improved to address over- or under-representation. In other words, 5% global population is not a sufficient measure. It also needed to achieve a 5% Māori population result.

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#3172155 15-Dec-2023 17:06

Technofreak:

If it doesn't stack up financially then why do it at all?

While on the face of it it seems the Finance Minister is being "difficult" over this I think there needs to be some checks and balances on where our tax dollars are spent. The angst in our media over this needs to better directed. NZR needs to learn to operate like any other business and not expect the government to bail them out.

I think the other concerning bit is we're up to $3b and counting. The 'and counting' bit is important because at this point there has been fumbles all through the process that have added hundreds of millions at a time, and just going "OK" is perhaps expressing an optimistic degree in confidence that the people who have fumbled to date will suddenly not be doing that anymore and it will go smoothly from this point on.

It's 'place your bets' stuff and the Finance Minister is playing with our money. She has declined.

Technofreak

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#3172162 15-Dec-2023 17:12

SaltyNZ:

Technofreak:

I agree in principle with the first part of your post but not to the extent of providing a service for the sake of the service where there is no proper demand.

Bluebridge seem to be able to do it without government money and make a profit. Why not NZR?

As I understand it this project was not merely to replace existing ferries but also to provide roll-on, roll-off rail freight service as well. You can certainly argue there is no demand for inter-island roll-on, roll-off rail freight services ... but there is no such service right now, I don't think (definitely could be wrong about that though). As the man once said "If you build it, they will come". We should be encouraging rail freight for lots of reasons including that it gets trucks off the roads so car journeys are quicker and the highways need less maintenance.

And again, you could also argue that they should have done a bunch of studies to better show whether or not that was a good idea - but as multiple examples in this very thread have showed politicians in both camps are not above calling such work wasted tax money and using it for political point scoring either.

And as for Bluebridge - yes, agreed, but that doesn't invalidate the argument at all. Plenty of airlines serve New Zealand and manage to make a profit. So why should we have bailed out Air New Zealand not once, but twice?

NZR already have roll on roll off, so not adding additional services.

Yes, NZ Inc needs this capability but we need to be able to afford it.

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ockel

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#3172186 15-Dec-2023 20:14

SaltyNZ:

Whilst that is a whole separate line of attack by this government which also needs to be addressed, the previous governments recognised a Te Tiriti obligation to Māori to ensure their health outcomes were improved to address over- or under-representation. In other words, 5% global population is not a sufficient measure. It also needed to achieve a 5% Māori population result.

At no point has the Smokefree target been redefined as such. Your inference is understood but I feel reaching. You can absolutely bet that if Labour (or a Coalition led by) were in power in 2025 and a population threshold of 5% smokefree was achieved that the fanfare would be deafening. That a subset of the population hadnt reached 5% would be deemed irrelevant. Bringing separatist arguments into such suits some causes, without a doubt.

Sixth Labour Government - "Vision without Execution is just Hallucination"

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