Our PM Jacinda Ardern (and the government)

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Networkn
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#3006869 7-Dec-2022 13:57

sir1963:

Our Anti-Nuke stance actually earned NZ a lot on international respect.

Its noteworthy that no government since then has tried to change the legislation because they KNOW it will cost them dearly.

Sure, respect, did anyone else follow suit as a result? We might get some respect from doing our part, but I doubt anyone is going to do something they don't want to, just because NZ did it.

We are fortunate we didn't really suffer any of the potential negative effects of that policy.

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#3006870 7-Dec-2022 14:04

networkn:

sir1963:

Our Anti-Nuke stance actually earned NZ a lot on international respect.

Its noteworthy that no government since then has tried to change the legislation because they KNOW it will cost them dearly.

Sure, respect, did anyone else follow suit as a result? We might get some respect from doing our part, but I doubt anyone is going to do something they don't want to, just because NZ did it.

We are fortunate we didn't really suffer any of the potential negative effects of that policy.

We did suffer, the relationship with the US was strained for a long time, only in recent times have we seen a bit of a thaw when it comes to co-operation along military lines perhaps due to the growing China influence in the Pacific. I have no doubt it also cost us at times with regards to trade.

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#3006872 7-Dec-2022 14:15

NZ building supplies from NZ grown trees.

I gather that some NZ sawmills have had to close for lack of log supply ?
The large international companies owning logging rights don't want to supply locals.

Covid played its part, plus expectation economy would fall off a cliff had companies tightening up.
Then add tight supply of wood?

Successive Governments have been lothe to craft some sort of regulations to keep x%,
which would not be very large, for local supply.

Countries we have trade agreements with would certainly be grumpy.
However, such measures are not unknown around the world.

Otherwise, it goes offshore and maybe we can buy it back with the double travel miles.
After we have outbid whoever else wants it.

My understanding, but others with industry knowledge can better comment.

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#3006961 7-Dec-2022 16:04

GV27:

sir1963:

The problems we have with all the services you mention is because politicians KNEW it would eventually be a problem, but kicked the can down the road anyway.

Climate change is global in scope, it will impact trade significantly, it will impact resources.

This is a far far bigger issue that will impact everyone for hundreds if not thousands of years.

No, there is no bigger issue than our kids being bereft of literacy and living hopelessly day-by-day during what should be the best years of their lives. The specter of climate change doesn't even come close.

The hypothetical humanitarian crisis we could have doesn't trump the already existent one we have in the here and now. And I don't believe you will be able to convince me otherwise.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/nz-climate-change-adaptation-plan-to-tackle-costs-and-who-pays-as-extreme-weather-events-managed-retreat-becomes-reality/EKYJHURUOBUU73EQSZ63JJFUJQ/

Shaw said rough estimates showed the cost of losing properties and assets in coastal and floodplain areas to be threatened by climate change impacts was about $145 billion.

NZs GDP is $250 Billion

marmel

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#3006963 7-Dec-2022 16:08

sir1963:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/nz-climate-change-adaptation-plan-to-tackle-costs-and-who-pays-as-extreme-weather-events-managed-retreat-becomes-reality/EKYJHURUOBUU73EQSZ63JJFUJQ/

Shaw said rough estimates showed the cost of losing properties and assets in coastal and floodplain areas to be threatened by climate change impacts was about $145 billion.

NZs GDP is $250 Billion

Without even reading any further I would have my strong suspicions about anything James Shaw states regarding stats about climate change.

sir1963

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#3006972 7-Dec-2022 16:24

marmel:

sir1963:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/nz-climate-change-adaptation-plan-to-tackle-costs-and-who-pays-as-extreme-weather-events-managed-retreat-becomes-reality/EKYJHURUOBUU73EQSZ63JJFUJQ/

Shaw said rough estimates showed the cost of losing properties and assets in coastal and floodplain areas to be threatened by climate change impacts was about $145 billion.

NZs GDP is $250 Billion

Without even reading any further I would have my strong suspicions about anything James Shaw states regarding stats about climate change.

https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/1d802cc9ff70476ba52c4eb5caef69a7.ashx

Research by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), as part of the Deep South National Science Challenge, indicated

that 30cm of sea-level rise (which it stated
is foreseeable in the next 30 years) may expose $18.49 billion worth of New Zealand buildings, 2,000km of roads, 4,000km of water pipelines, 1,600km2 of agricultural land and 14 airports to coastal flooding. Further research found that climate change is already contributing to the cost of extreme events. For example, around $800 million of the $4.8 billion that government agencies estimated in lost GDP due to the 2007 and 2013 droughts has been attributed to climate change

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/425683/highway-costing-70-million-per-km-set-to-get-even-more-expensive-due-to-pumice

roading costs 20-30 Million per km so we have a loss of 6 Billion in existing roads and then have to build new ones

https://www.letstalk.wellington.govt.nz/three-waters-network

Wellington need to spend about 4 Billion just in upgrades to their existing infrastructure

The cpm's the cost of rebuilding schools, hospitals, etc etc etc due to population displacement.

And we have not accounted for the loss of exports, jobs, etc

marmel

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#3006983 7-Dec-2022 16:38

sir1963:

https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/1d802cc9ff70476ba52c4eb5caef69a7.ashx

Research by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), as part of the Deep South National Science Challenge, indicated

that 30cm of sea-level rise (which it stated
is foreseeable in the next 30 years) may expose $18.49 billion worth of New Zealand buildings, 2,000km of roads, 4,000km of water pipelines, 1,600km2 of agricultural land and 14 airports to coastal flooding. Further research found that climate change is already contributing to the cost of extreme events. For example, around $800 million of the $4.8 billion that government agencies estimated in lost GDP due to the 2007 and 2013 droughts has been attributed to climate change

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/425683/highway-costing-70-million-per-km-set-to-get-even-more-expensive-due-to-pumice

roading costs 20-30 Million per km so we have a loss of 6 Billion in existing roads and then have to build new ones

https://www.letstalk.wellington.govt.nz/three-waters-network

Wellington need to spend about 4 Billion just in upgrades to their existing infrastructure

The cpm's the cost of rebuilding schools, hospitals, etc etc etc due to population displacement.

And we have not accounted for the loss of exports, jobs, etc

The reality is everything is based on estimates. James Shaw will be using the absolute worst stats he can find, as we know about half of our emissions are from agriculture, a good portion of the Green party are opposed to farming animals full stop, regardless of the climate impact. He never seems to mention that regardless of what we do in NZ it will have pretty much no impact whatsoever on climate change. Unless China, India and the US make massive changes which are likely to drastically alter their economies nothing will change.

Even if the global emission targets are met we still don't actually know if it will make much of a difference. Human history is simply a blink of the eye of earth's history, we simply don't have enough accurate records of climate modelling over several billion years to know just what is exactly happening with the temperature of the planet other than it is warming presently.

The worst thought of all though is that a government as completely ineffective as the present one has to try and navigate us through any climate change, we may as well all start building arks in the back yard now.

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tdgeek

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#3007018 7-Dec-2022 18:45

This isnt the climate change thread, although OBVIOUSLY politically biased (for some)

There comes a ring where the reality supersedes lifetime, tattooed, political bias

tdgeek

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#3007027 7-Dec-2022 18:53

marmel:

The reality is everything is based on estimates. James Shaw will be using the absolute worst stats he can find,

The worst thought of all though is that a government as completely ineffective as the present one

Fair comments.

Is Shaw/Greens the only one to massage clickbait...?

Point 2. I guess if you look at goals and policies, yes, not great. You could ignore MANY mitigating factors but thats not the newsfeed some want. Or you could have another party who rules on literally NO policies and quietly walks away from comment, from inaction. So has neo fails... And no action... Here we are

But what I dislike is when two opposing posters banter away, and one, uses words like rude, etc etc etc, simply because the other disagreed. Passive/Agressive is not cool. Put your point across and debate it. Not referring to @Marmel, just saying. Is the Poltics thread about bitching or is it a discussion? To date its about bitching.

tdgeek

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#3007030 7-Dec-2022 18:59

marmel:

Even if the global emission targets are met we still don't actually know if it will make much of a difference. Human history is simply a blink of the eye of earth's history, we simply don't have enough accurate records of climate modelling over several billion years to know just what is exactly happening with the temperature of the planet other than it is warming presently.

Sorry but that is totally incorrect to the extreme. Industrial era to now, obvious. You could look at the cyclical warming cooling over eons, or not even eons going by the last ice age. As you say, human are a blink in the eye, actually a LOT less, but the effect is massive. Nature evolves, what gets wet or dry or hot or cool, evolves. No issue at all. 200 years, thats an issue. IIRC i read that if emissions stopped NOW, it would take 50 years for the weather to stabilise.

Read the science

sir1963

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#3007054 7-Dec-2022 20:39

marmel:

The reality is everything is based on estimates. James Shaw will be using the absolute worst stats he can find, as we know about half of our emissions are from agriculture, a good portion of the Green party are opposed to farming animals full stop, regardless of the climate impact. He never seems to mention that regardless of what we do in NZ it will have pretty much no impact whatsoever on climate change. Unless China, India and the US make massive changes which are likely to drastically alter their economies nothing will change.

Even if the global emission targets are met we still don't actually know if it will make much of a difference. Human history is simply a blink of the eye of earth's history, we simply don't have enough accurate records of climate modelling over several billion years to know just what is exactly happening with the temperature of the planet other than it is warming presently.

The worst thought of all though is that a government as completely ineffective as the present one has to try and navigate us through any climate change, we may as well all start building arks in the back yard now.

You are sorely lacking in Science Knowledge.

We do have enough data for the modelling and the modelling is getting scarier as we go.

Watch these and seee if it scares you

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxoyaCSWFGs&t=553s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dC7A9FHLreI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OpBnCY7wwaw

marmel

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#3007055 7-Dec-2022 20:44

As someone has pointed out this isn’t the climate change thread so I won’t bother responding to any further comments, I’ve expressed my thoughts.

Bringing this back in track should the PM dump Mahuta from cabinet? On the one hand it could cause chaos if Mahuta has other strong supporters within the caucus but on the other it would show she is a strong leader, in control of the party and won’t stand for any BS.

Personally I just don’t think she has enough support to pull it off.

GV27

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#3007140 8-Dec-2022 06:19

marmel: As someone has pointed out this isn’t the climate change thread so I won’t bother responding to any further comments, I’ve expressed my thoughts.

Bringing this back in track should the PM dump Mahuta from cabinet? On the one hand it could cause chaos if Mahuta has other strong supporters within the caucus but on the other it would show she is a strong leader, in control of the party and won’t stand for any BS.

Personally I just don’t think she has enough support to pull it off.

There's no chance of this. To put it bluntly, if Mahuta has been able to ignore the wide-ranging feedback on 3 Waters, the questions around her immediate and extended families and government contracts, the pathetic sanctions on Russia and the Local Governance issues with the proposed warding of Rotorua, then this really isn't much of a change in service from her.

To suddenly sack her now, over this, would be an extreme overreaction in the face of the stuff she has done elsewhere without consequence. Plus I'm fairly sure that if Willie Jackson can make such a sow's ear of the RNZ/TVNZ merger like he has, I'm pretty sure we can assume the Maori caucus are untouchable or at least feel they are.

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#3007154 8-Dec-2022 07:23

There is no reason for the PM to dump Mahuta. The National Party is hysterically yelling Mahuta defied the prime minister and the cabinet blah etc. The claim is false.

The record shows cabinet considered only the 75% convention could not be met and for that reason resolved it should be removed from the bill and it was. The later amendment set 60% and required that level of support.

Personally I'm glad the clause was removed and the convention to entrench remains only for things like electoral law.

marmel

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#3007156 8-Dec-2022 07:30

gzt: There is no reason for the PM to dump Mahuta. The National Party is hysterically yelling Mahuta defied the prime minister and the cabinet blah etc. The claim is false.

The record shows cabinet considered only the 75% convention could not be met and for that reason resolved it should be removed from the bill and it was. The later amendment set 60% and required that level of support.

Personally I'm glad the clause was removed and the convention to entrench remains only for things like electoral law.

It isn’t as simple as that. When was the 60% entrenchment clause added? When did the PM know? When did Mahuta inform the caucus? Watch any interview with the PM regarding this, she dodges every question without providing an answer. From that I think we can assume that either the PM did know and doesn’t want to admit it or she was unaware because Mahuta had not informed the caucus. Either way it isn’t a good look for Labour.

All the PM will say is that a mistake was made and they are fixing it, but that is the ambulance at the bottom of the cliff approach. For something that was clearly a major departure from accepted practice around entrenchment the public deserve a proper explanation as to how it got that far in the first place.

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