Stats not working twice in a row - Scott Morrison wins

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Forums › Politics › Stats not working twice in a row - Scott Morrison wins

Batman

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#250620 19-May-2019 10:27

First all the American polls showed victory for Clinton, that was wrong.

Then the Australian polls showed landslide victory for Shorten, that's also wrong.

Can this be called that stats are not working! (or whoever doing stats are not doing it right)

tdgeek

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#2240732 19-May-2019 10:33

No idea. I dont know how they decide who will be in a poll. If a demographic represented say 10% of the country, do they ensure 10% of the poll is them? Do they do the same with geographical areas? Urban vs rural? What about areas or demographics that are facing a negative issue in life? To get a nice cross section the poll would need to be a few thousand I would suggest, but they seem much lower. Or do they focus on key electorates, the election decking ones, and just grab 400 people in each, at random?

Fred99

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#2240737 19-May-2019 10:47

Shouldn't this have been posted in the politics forum?

If I was to posit a guess, I'd say that when asked *without consequence* for what they say, people don't like to support anti-environment and anti-liberal policies.
When it comes to the crunch - in the polling booth - they'll vote entirely of perceived short-term self-interest.
It's pretty clear from the way we're headed that democracy isn't going to deliver action on the environment any time soon.

Batman

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#2240741 19-May-2019 10:51

I have no idea about Australian politics and I am not starting a political debate.

But the fact that polls have predicted major victories and then it was a major victory but to the other party.

tdgeek

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#2240743 19-May-2019 10:57

Batman:

I have no idea about Australian politics and I am not starting a political debate.

But the fact that polls have predicted major victories and then it was a major victory but to the other party.

Some bookmakers paid out early, and lost that money, thats how clear the polls were

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#2240745 19-May-2019 10:59

An analyst on the ABC summed up the problem fairly well late last night. The polling companies use the electoral rolls matched up to phone books to find people to survey, but as (in Australia at least) mobile phones become more common, and more and more people give up landlines, this method of finding people to survey is becoming less and less representative of the population as a whole (and probably skewed in favour of the left side of politics).

I don't know what the solution is, or even if there is a solution, because there isn't one method of communication that can be used to reach the public equally anymore.

What was a bit concerning to see was that with reasonable consistency, there was a swing to Labor in the Labor-held seats, but a swing to the Coalition in the Coalition-held seats, suggesting that the Australian public, much like the United States, are becoming more polarised in their views.

Batman

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#2240746 19-May-2019 11:04

They used landline to survey! Lol

Fred99

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#2240749 19-May-2019 11:08

There are a couple of significant differences.

One poll (rasmussen) got it right in the US. Reason was that they corrected for eligible voters not likely to vote. The campaigns being run on social media targeted those voters by driving the wedge - "the Democrats betrayed you by rejecting Bernie - so protest by not voting".

At this time, I think the Dems are capable of losing again for exactly the same reason - and lose to the most unpopular president of all time.

Difference #1 in Aus politics, voting is compulsory, so encouraging non-voting isn't going to work. Difference #2, Morrison has always been more popular than Shorten leading up to the election.

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Fred99

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#2240755 19-May-2019 11:11

Not sure how or why a landline survey should show left bias. It should be the other way around, with older more conservative voters more likely to still have landlines.

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#2240756 19-May-2019 11:12

The thing about 'probability' is that 'unlikely' is not the same as 'impossible'. A 90% chance of winning is a 10% chance of losing. Anyone who ever played X-COM 2 knows what I mean.

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gzt

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#2240799 19-May-2019 14:11

Batman: Can this be called that stats are not working! (or whoever doing stats are not doing it right)

Many new factors for pollsters to deal with. Mobile phones. Mobile internet. Most of them do a bad job with that for some reason. Then add Facebook and things like that.

Random things on Facebook can really swing things around and it is entirely opaque to pollsters. There are way around that they haven't even figured out mobile yet.

Another big factor is most polls are paid for by someone with a particular purpose in mind and then released or not on their say so.

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#2248060 29-May-2019 22:32

Morrison's Facebook and online media campaign:

Newsroom: A New Zealand agency founded by two former "Young Nats" harnessed the power of Facebook and Instagram to help the Liberals win Australia's "unwinnable election".

A low-profile Kiwi digital and creative agency was in the thick of the 'miracle', come-from-behind campaign that saw Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and his Liberal Party re-elected.

Topham Guerin, established just three years ago, helped the Liberals outgun Bill Shorten's Labor campaign with high octane digital messaging, deploying videos and ads around the clock.