Geekzone: technology news, blogs, forums
Guest
Welcome Guest.
You haven't logged in yet. If you don't have an account you can register now.




18072 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

# 255511 15-Aug-2019 11:45
Send private message quote this post

This article isn't a doom and gloom clickbait, it mentions some key indicators that have preceded a recession, one of which has preceded every global recession, short and long term US bonds

 

 

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/115015190/recession-warning-flashes-for-first-time-since-financial-crisis-stocks-plunge

 

 


Create new topic
315 posts

Ultimate Geek


  # 2299719 15-Aug-2019 12:03
Send private message quote this post

Analysts have been warning of a coming downturn for a while now. I think most people will not be surprised by this news. The big problem will be how much capacity the big economies will have to take action to mitigate the effects or kick off a recovery. In a lot of ways it still seems places haven't really recovered from 2008. Given the state of political leadership in the US and UK along with the self inflicted damage they have caused I don't hold out much hope for meaningful action this time around.




18072 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

  # 2299721 15-Aug-2019 12:07
Send private message quote this post

Agree, no surprise. As you say, there are many issue such as Trump, UK politics, that are not helping and will ensure little proactive global efforts will occur. Now, whether the indicators are real or large or not, people will desert the markets, and more or less guarantee a continuation of stock market decline, self feeding


 
 
 
 




18072 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

  # 2299729 15-Aug-2019 12:21
Send private message quote this post

And while what happens to our stock market is not relevant, this NZ article paints a less harsh view. Is that accurate or wishful thinking?

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/115017819/kiwi-investors-react-to-fear-of-us-recession

 

 


2001 posts

Uber Geek


  # 2299770 15-Aug-2019 13:23
Send private message quote this post

tdgeek:

 

This article isn't a doom and gloom clickbait, it mentions some key indicators that have preceded a recession, one of which has preceded every global recession, short and long term US bonds

 

 

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/115015190/recession-warning-flashes-for-first-time-since-financial-crisis-stocks-plunge

 

 

 

 

Agreed, ti does look a bit ominous.

 

What it doesn't say is how often, if anytime, those key indicators have 'flashed red' and it wasn't followed by a global recession.

 

Have we had inverted yield curves in the past and everything turned out fine?





"I have noticed even people who claim everything is predestined, and that we can do nothing to change it, look before they cross the road." -  Stephen Hawking




18072 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

  # 2299776 15-Aug-2019 13:32
Send private message quote this post

floydbloke:

 

 

 

Have we had inverted yield curves in the past and everything turned out fine?

 

 

It just says often

 

"inverted yield curve," that often foreshadows a recession.

 

And it also states   This phenomenon, which suggests investor faith in the economy is faltering, has preceded every recession in the past 50 years.


8703 posts

Uber Geek


  # 2299778 15-Aug-2019 13:33
Send private message quote this post

tdgeek:

 

And while what happens to our stock market is not relevant, this NZ article paints a less harsh view. Is that accurate or wishful thinking?

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/115017819/kiwi-investors-react-to-fear-of-us-recession

 

 

 

 

Possibly a few factors to that, one being that these large-ish one day dips on Wall St have been followed by rebounds over recent months/years.  Stock futures on all major US markets are up at the moment from close this morning (our time), so if that holds, then at close of local trading the NZ market will reflect a response to US futures levels at that time, not the ~3% dip when their market closed.

 

PE ratios on the local market aren't at the atmospheric levels the US markets are at.

 

The NZD has fallen quite sharply, so buying NZ shares is cheaper if you're using USD etc.

 

Anyway, I wouldn't be too concerned about the NZ market.  While say a 10% drop wouldn't be very nice, you'd still be well ahead year on year. And whatcha going to do anyway? Most kiwis are invested in the local market through their kiwisaver, I can't see panic (like 1987) ensuing, as then much of the market fluff was from individuals leveraging themselves to the hilt - people aren't borrowing money to invest in Kiwisaver (except indirectly, by taking out whacking great mortgages over recent times - that could still be millstones around their necks when they turn 65).

 

 


8703 posts

Uber Geek


  # 2299781 15-Aug-2019 13:40
One person supports this post
Send private message quote this post

floydbloke:

 

Have we had inverted yield curves in the past and everything turned out fine?

 

 

Here's a good graphic representation of the US yield curve historic correlation with US recessions:

 

 

 


 
 
 
 




18072 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

  # 2299789 15-Aug-2019 13:47
Send private message quote this post

This period is quite new to us? Trump, Trade Wars, Brexit? All new things, plus you expect some lessons learned from 2008, so it seems almost impossible to ponder what may or may not happen. Plus with interest rates globally low, no room to drop rates to boost spending by consumers in the economies. 


Create new topic



Twitter and LinkedIn »



Follow us to receive Twitter updates when new discussions are posted in our forums:



Follow us to receive Twitter updates when news items and blogs are posted in our frontpage:



Follow us to receive Twitter updates when tech item prices are listed in our price comparison site:





News »

Logitech introduces new Made for Google keyboard and mouse devices
Posted 16-Oct-2019 13:36


MATTR launches to accelerate decentralised identity
Posted 16-Oct-2019 10:28


Vodafone X-Squad powers up for customers
Posted 16-Oct-2019 08:15


D Link ANZ launches EXO Smart Mesh Wi Fi Routers with McAfee protection
Posted 15-Oct-2019 11:31


Major Japanese retailer partners with smart New Zealand technology IMAGR
Posted 14-Oct-2019 10:29


Ola pioneers one-time passcode feature to fight rideshare fraud
Posted 14-Oct-2019 10:24


Spark Sport new home of NZC matches from 2020
Posted 10-Oct-2019 09:59


Meet Nola, Noel Leeming's new digital employee
Posted 4-Oct-2019 08:07


Registrations for Sprout Accelerator open for 2020 season
Posted 4-Oct-2019 08:02


Teletrac Navman welcomes AI tech leader Jens Meggers as new President
Posted 4-Oct-2019 07:41


Vodafone makes voice of 4G (VoLTE) official
Posted 4-Oct-2019 07:36


2degrees Reaches Milestone of 100,000 Broadband Customers
Posted 1-Oct-2019 09:17


Nokia 1 Plus available in New Zealand from 2nd October
Posted 30-Sep-2019 17:46


Ola integrates Apple Pay as payment method in New Zealand
Posted 25-Sep-2019 09:51


Facebook Portal to land in New Zealand
Posted 19-Sep-2019 18:35



Geekzone Live »

Try automatic live updates from Geekzone directly in your browser, without refreshing the page, with Geekzone Live now.


Support Geekzone »

Our community of supporters help make Geekzone possible. Click the button below to join them.

Support Geezone on PressPatron



Are you subscribed to our RSS feed? You can download the latest headlines and summaries from our stories directly to your computer or smartphone by using a feed reader.

Alternatively, you can receive a daily email with Geekzone updates.