Syria's Assad in trouble, Syrias rebels making gains ?

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ezbee

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#317947 29-Nov-2024 14:29

With Hezbollah who were fighting for Syria's Assad with Iran's help and encouragement now busy.
Russia having a few things distracting them. (Though still serious airpower and forces in Syria)

Rebel forces in Syria start reversing their losses.

Assad opposition perhaps a disparate group of oppositions with differing goals?

Turkey supporting Turkmen groups and already occupy part of Syria.
Syria is after-all once part of the Ottoman Empire with useful resources.
Seems the groups making gains may be the Turkish supported ones?

Turkey shot down a Russian airplane in the past and said it would happily do so again in certain areas.
No nukes or anything bar Putin flapping his gums, then kiss and make up.

Kurds still have problem that Turkey aligned just as likely to go after them as anyone else.

Assad SHAKEN after new Rebel Attack, Russian Ruble FALLING, Ceasefire Signed, Hasan Debates Uncle
DylanBurnsLIVE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJ9pHC1jZ8Q

Batman

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#3315218 2-Dec-2024 18:22

nah Russia (and it follows China, North Korea) will come flick them back

ezbee

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#3317726 7-Dec-2024 09:50

As the rotten front door crumbles.
It looks like villages long suppressed by Assads terror are rising up within Syria.
So concepts of a front line might be dissolving.

Russia may be as likely to go 'whoever wins gets the rental payments for bases, oil and grain shipments'.
Just forget about the decade of atrocities, and we can talk like 'practical people'.

There are factions within the rebels with differing aims. Once I was ISIS, Al-Qaeda, now ?

Complaints that one seems to be more interested in looting civilians and hostage taking behind the lines rather than risking lives at the front.
One is ignoring Assad's forces and going after Kurds because 'Turkey'
So it could yet stall due into infighting, as thoughts move to which of the winners will be the winner.

The average person deserves better after all these years, and just maybe.

gzt

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#3317799 7-Dec-2024 14:41

The tides have turned many times in this war.

The rebel factions advance is rapid. They may yet run out of steam or hit a wall. Assad is no doubt preparing one.

Lastly, if the rebel factions succeed. What then? Who rules? It is very likely to be instability.

ezbee

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#3317989 8-Dec-2024 15:23

gzt It's true anything could happen.

Are the Syrian groups, or leaders learning from past failures ?
Narrow strength of highly sectarian, brutal, absolutist force turns into a tragedy, wasting opportunity.

Sectarian absolutism a gift of divide and conquer for Assad, Iran and Russia.

Moderates having been massacred in decade or more of conflict.
Its probably up to past absolutists growing up and thinking differently?

Its complicated by difference between 'say' and 'do' as well.
The new Taliban, what did they say ?
Turned out to be a steady progression to old Taliban, who knew ?

HTS leader talks well, we will see if its covered by actions, as they get more power.

Russia, if old king is not good enough may just offer opportunity to a new one from rebel forces.
Anyone who does a deal for its bases and a province around them for Russian loyalists.

'Look over there, neighbors you might want to get even with, more than you want justice from us'.
'Who would arm you for such ventures?'

Divide and conquer works best if you are flexible. :-)
Though the bs that Lavrov talks is hard to listen to, is he trying to blame the west again ?

Handle9

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#3318230 9-Dec-2024 04:37

Assad is gone.

I really hope it gets better in Syria but I feel it'll get quite a lot worse for quite a long time before it gets better.

Assad was awful but it's not a good thing for the region given the way things are at the moment.