Telecom Takes UFB Priority

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3892 posts

Uber Geek

#417625 15-Dec-2010 14:15

ockel: 77-78% of homes passed by my calculations. In the US it sits at 30% after 6 years (once passed) with about 55% for community based rollouts.

If you leave the copper in place then the take up rate is going to be slower. But this fibre stuff is about the long term isn't it.

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DonGould

3892 posts

Uber Geek

#417629 15-Dec-2010 14:19

ockel: Any chance that Citylink's majority shareholder didnt think that the pricing (and your philosophy of dropping prices to give kiwis faster cheaper net) and the cost of connection made economic sense?

According to Stuff, sources suggest that Telecom dropped its wholesale prices. Maybe Vector and Citylink didnt and as such didnt make the shortlist? In both cases these companies have a board to report to rather than Northpower and WEL's community based trust boards which tend to have different views on ROI.

Ya, see this is why it's good that we have ppl like Murry Millner, the minister and the govt guy (who's name escapes me right now) across all of this and not me making the selection. :)

My comments really are as an observer and I don't profess to be up with all the facts even half as much as some of the other GZ posters.

I think my reasons for bias are quite clear and I'm sure you'll agree I've presented some good points.... but I've also seen some really good other points raised here as well.

It's sure going to make a really interesting decade, that's for sure!!!

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graemeh

2078 posts

Uber Geek

#417633 15-Dec-2010 14:21

ockel:
graemeh:
ockel: According to Stuff, sources suggest that Telecom dropped its wholesale prices. Maybe Vector and Citylink didnt and as such didnt make the shortlist? In both cases these companies have a board to report to rather than Northpower and WEL's community based trust boards which tend to have different views on ROI.

That's pretty much what Simon MacKenzie at Vector is reported to have said. To give the pricing the government wanted Vector needed the govt to carry more of the risk.

My interpretation is that it can be done at the prices the govt wants (presumably those we have been told) but it would require a quite high uptake.

77-78% of homes passed by my calculations. In the US it sits at 30% after 6 years (once passed) with about 55% for community based rollouts.

Well I can see the commercial problem here, if the highest achieved is 55% then 77-78% is most unlikely any time soon.

ockel

2031 posts

Uber Geek

#417637 15-Dec-2010 14:23

DonGould:
ockel: 77-78% of homes passed by my calculations. In the US it sits at 30% after 6 years (once passed) with about 55% for community based rollouts.

If you leave the copper in place then the take up rate is going to be slower. But this fibre stuff is about the long term isn't it.

Yes it is. When it doesnt make sense to repair then replace. When customers want more speed and are willing to pay for it then replace.

When you replace something thats not obsolete with something that generates no incremental revenue then thats stupid investment.

Sixth Labour Government - "Vision without Execution is just Hallucination"

ockel

2031 posts

Uber Geek

#417644 15-Dec-2010 14:30

DonGould:
ockel: Any chance that Citylink's majority shareholder didnt think that the pricing (and your philosophy of dropping prices to give kiwis faster cheaper net) and the cost of connection made economic sense?

According to Stuff, sources suggest that Telecom dropped its wholesale prices. Maybe Vector and Citylink didnt and as such didnt make the shortlist? In both cases these companies have a board to report to rather than Northpower and WEL's community based trust boards which tend to have different views on ROI.

Ya, see this is why it's good that we have ppl like Murry Millner, the minister and the govt guy (who's name escapes me right now) across all of this and not me making the selection. :)

My comments really are as an observer and I don't profess to be up with all the facts even half as much as some of the other GZ posters.

I think my reasons for bias are quite clear and I'm sure you'll agree I've presented some good points.... but I've also seen some really good other points raised here as well.

It's sure going to make a really interesting decade, that's for sure!!!

Do you advise your clients to dump new equipment and buy new equipment because it sounds like a good idea?
Do you replace your car every year because you like the new years model?

In an ideal world it'd be great to be able to replace everything with new with no cost repercussions. But in some cases it makes sense to replace something when the cost to repair it is uneconomic compared to replacement. We all do this all the time. I imagine that you're pretty rational and measured when it comes to advising your clients what to do.

Sixth Labour Government - "Vision without Execution is just Hallucination"

Regs

4066 posts

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Trusted

Snowflake

#417695 15-Dec-2010 15:30

ockel:
DonGould:
ockel: 77-78% of homes passed by my calculations. In the US it sits at 30% after 6 years (once passed) with about 55% for community based rollouts.

If you leave the copper in place then the take up rate is going to be slower. But this fibre stuff is about the long term isn't it.

Yes it is. When it doesnt make sense to repair then replace. When customers want more speed and are willing to pay for it then replace.

When you replace something thats not obsolete with something that generates no incremental revenue then thats stupid investment.

it may never be cheaper to replace than to fix copper... you would need to force customers to ditch their analog telephones, analog modems, analog monitored alarms and adsl modems and make them buy new gear to connect to fibre (or supply them with fibre ONTs and analog-telephony-adaptors). If the providers have to do that, then you'll expect the price to go up even more.

analog television switch-off could only really be attempted after a critical mass moved to freeview and sky. when it is finally switched off there will still probably be an out-cry and a bunch of citizens will probably be given free set top boxes.

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ockel

2031 posts

Uber Geek

#417726 15-Dec-2010 15:59

Regs:
ockel:
DonGould:
ockel: 77-78% of homes passed by my calculations. In the US it sits at 30% after 6 years (once passed) with about 55% for community based rollouts.

If you leave the copper in place then the take up rate is going to be slower. But this fibre stuff is about the long term isn't it.

Yes it is. When it doesnt make sense to repair then replace. When customers want more speed and are willing to pay for it then replace.

When you replace something thats not obsolete with something that generates no incremental revenue then thats stupid investment.

it may never be cheaper to replace than to fix copper... you would need to force customers to ditch their analog telephones, analog modems, analog monitored alarms and adsl modems and make them buy new gear to connect to fibre (or supply them with fibre ONTs and analog-telephony-adaptors). If the providers have to do that, then you'll expect the price to go up even more.

analog television switch-off could only really be attempted after a critical mass moved to freeview and sky. when it is finally switched off there will still probably be an out-cry and a bunch of citizens will probably be given free set top boxes.

Going to be interesting to watch in Australia and NZ then isnt it? Telstra WILL decommission copper so households and businesses will have to move to fibre or go wireless. Is the customer going to foot the bill?

Will a separated Chorus run copper and fibre or will fibre replace the copper? As Chorus gets the same wholesale price regardless it wont care whether it alienates the household/business?
Will the customer going to foot the bill? Will the RSP?

In true fashion this part of the world will be a fascinating economic experiment to watch.

Sixth Labour Government - "Vision without Execution is just Hallucination"

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DonGould

3892 posts

Uber Geek

#417740 15-Dec-2010 16:30

ockel: I imagine that you're pretty rational and measured when it comes to advising your clients what to do.

A bit more rational than I'm sure my GZ rants would make me appear. ;)

I thought the fttn upgrade here in .nz was a fantastic move for exactly the reasons outlined above by others.

I think what they're doing in .au is bonkers and going to really po a few people, but they can afford it more than I perceive we can here in .nz.

I agree with the issues presented, about doing stuff that's going to cause people to have to ditch a pile of gear they already own, that's currently not even being used to its full potential.

As I said, this is a really really complex question, and from my pov the more debate we have around it the better informed we all become and perhaps that will translate to better outcomes for the consumers.

D

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ockel

2031 posts

Uber Geek

#417742 15-Dec-2010 16:39

DonGould:
ockel: I imagine that you're pretty rational and measured when it comes to advising your clients what to do.

A bit more rational than I'm sure my GZ rants would make me appear. ;)

I thought the fttn upgrade here in .nz was a fantastic move for exactly the reasons outlined above by others.

I think what they're doing in .au is bonkers and going to really po a few people, but they can afford it more than I perceive we can here in .nz.

I agree with the issues presented, about doing stuff that's going to cause people to have to ditch a pile of gear they already own, that's currently not even being used to its full potential.

As I said, this is a really really complex question, and from my pov the more debate we have around it the better informed we all become and perhaps that will translate to better outcomes for the consumers.

D

And yet we allow the Govt to decide how to spend our taxpayer money on replacing the asset and (using a classic economic term) crowding out investment. All based on a spurious NZ Institute analysis. Not only that but dictating price and protecting price for 10 years.

Meanwhile South Auckland continues its slide into 3rd world poverty with crime (we cant afford more police officers) and healthcare (cant afford doctors) and declining education standards. We seem to think that technology will be the silver bullet to solve this with e-learning (about Antarctica via podcasts, blogs and television) and telemedicine.

Would I rather $1.5bn be spent on core needs or would I rather it be for faster P2P?

If this Government truly beleived its own BS then it should build in regional and rural areas which are truly uneconomic and if it gets clusters of economic development then bonus. Build to schools, build to medical facilities. Residential doesnt need it. Business can afford it if its going to add economic value to the business.

Lets debate cost/benefit analysis. Hell lets have it debated in Australia too. Lets not make decisions on a politicans "trust me".

Sixth Labour Government - "Vision without Execution is just Hallucination"

DonGould

3892 posts

Uber Geek

#417755 15-Dec-2010 16:55

Oh god, I thought we'd already done all that debating...

Just get on and whack the stuff in.

$1.5/$4.5b in to it, seems good to me. I'm sick of trying figure out if something will work for a customer because their bb isn't up to spec.

D

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ockel

2031 posts

Uber Geek

#417761 15-Dec-2010 17:06

DonGould: Oh god, I thought we'd already done all that debating...

Just get on and whack the stuff in.

$1.5/$4.5b in to it, seems good to me. I'm sick of trying figure out if something will work for a customer because their bb isn't up to spec.

D

What we've done is debate opinion and rhetoric. What we havent done is debate the cost/benefit and we havent debated whether the Govt is the best party to be deciding technology path, timing etc.

And we havent debated whether the Govt is the best party to select and procure equipment/services. Can anyone tell me that the Govt is the smartest cookie in the box when it comes to purchasing decisions?

Sixth Labour Government - "Vision without Execution is just Hallucination"

DonGould

3892 posts

Uber Geek

#417769 15-Dec-2010 17:19

Ockel, I think we're well past all those issues really. Everyone else in the world is moving to fibre solutions and we either keep up or get left behind.

It's quite clear that private co's just aren't going to cut it so govt has to step in.

The cost/benefit of not having fast data is easy to see in my view. So easy in fact that it's just rhetoric in it self.

D

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Oldhat

180 posts

Master Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#417788 15-Dec-2010 18:36

I think Ockel is suggesting that there would have been greater benefit from the rollout of a fibre network to all rural locations rather than primarily urban.

As has been pointed out approximately 26% of exported goods are dairy related.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10693344

The cost/benefit ratio to rollout fibre into these areas would mean that it is unlikely to occur on a major scale due to it not being commercially viable. I feel that there would have been a greater likelihood of tangible commercial benefit from investing all of the 1.5 billion into a rural rollout.

Regs

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Snowflake

#417825 15-Dec-2010 21:49

Oldhat: I think Ockel is suggesting that there would have been greater benefit from the rollout of a fibre network to all rural locations rather than primarily urban.

As has been pointed out approximately 26% of exported goods are dairy related.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10693344

The cost/benefit ratio to rollout fibre into these areas would mean that it is unlikely to occur on a major scale due to it not being commercially viable. I feel that there would have been a greater likelihood of tangible commercial benefit from investing all of the 1.5 billion into a rural rollout.

we're exporting milk and milk products from the rural sector, shipped via trucks, to a a few large dairy companies. not sure where the tangible benefit for fibre comes in there? will the cows produce more milk if we deliver them cow-related tv shows via IPTV?

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DonGould

3892 posts

Uber Geek

#417846 15-Dec-2010 22:20

http://www.nbnexplained.org/wordpress/ - check out the whole video on the front page... you'll see the auzzies are planning on using nbn to zip sheep to town.... surely we can pour milk down the fibre?

D

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