Festival of Democracy

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#1138163 26-Sep-2014 12:19

When there are votes for parties that didn't make it into parliament ('sub-votes'): -

Proportion of seats = Party-vote %/(100% - sub-votes%)

This election the sub-vote added up to 6%.

National's proportion of seats is (48.1/94) = 51.2%.

51.2% of 121 seats is 61.9 seats.

National got 61 seats. The 0.9 seat mismatch is because it isn't actually that simple. A quotient formula is used, that iteratively allocates seats. This method in effect slightly favours smaller parties.

ubergeeknz:
bazzer:
joker97: if a party wins 4.9% of party vote and doesn't get into parliament wheredo the seats go to?

I believe the 120 seats get allocated based on your percentage of the "useful" votes. So, I suppose, the 4.9% would get shared equally amongst the other parties in proportion to their party vote.

Yep, those votes are "lost" - as if they were never cast. Then the proportion is worked out from the remaining votes.

Mike

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#1144867 1-Oct-2014 14:51

MikeAqua: When there are votes for parties that didn't make it into parliament ('sub-votes'): -

Proportion of seats = Party-vote %/(100% - sub-votes%)

This election the sub-vote added up to 6%.

National's proportion of seats is (48.1/94) = 51.2%.

51.2% of 121 seats is 61.9 seats.

National got 61 seats. The 0.9 seat mismatch is because it isn't actually that simple. A quotient formula is used, that iteratively allocates seats. This method in effect slightly favours smaller parties.

ubergeeknz:
bazzer:
joker97: if a party wins 4.9% of party vote and doesn't get into parliament wheredo the seats go to?

I believe the 120 seats get allocated based on your percentage of the "useful" votes. So, I suppose, the 4.9% would get shared equally amongst the other parties in proportion to their party vote.

Yep, those votes are "lost" - as if they were never cast. Then the proportion is worked out from the remaining votes.

I thought they based it on the proportion of "non-overhang" seats, i.e. 51.2% of 120 seats is 61.44, rounded down to 61. In reality, it's because the Sainte-Laguë method only uses the first 120 quotients. Any overhang seats are just additional, i.e. max(electorate - party seat entitlement, 0).

Interestingly, if we used the D'Hondt method (another popular one), I think National would've gotten 63 seats, Maori only 1 seat and ACT's seat would've been another overhang.

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#1144907 1-Oct-2014 15:40

Act seat is a joke. If you puta monkey in that seat the monkey would get into parliament. Well, such is politics. I hope he doesn't get an important portfolio like education or something. He belongs in the coffee boy role for a few years ... then if he is good I suppose he could be given something important.

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#1145510 2-Oct-2014 12:25

joker97: Act seat is a joke. If you puta monkey in that seat the monkey would get into parliament. Well, such is politics. I hope he doesn't get an important portfolio like education or something. He belongs in the coffee boy role for a few years ... then if he is good I suppose he could be given something important.

Especially seeing they don't need the vote to govern anyway.

Smart move including the Maori party previously even though not required to govern. Removed quite a large ability to moan from that sector given they were technically in some form of power.

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#1145518 2-Oct-2014 12:31

joker97: Act seat is a joke. If you puta monkey in that seat the monkey would get into parliament. Well, such is politics. I hope he doesn't get an important portfolio like education or something. He belongs in the coffee boy role for a few years ... then if he is good I suppose he could be given something important.

If he was good he wouldn't be in ACT ;)

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#1145829 2-Oct-2014 17:55

The Maori Party will be administering the existing Whanau Ora policies and get a bit more policy carrot at the end of term. ACT will be administering the charter schools polices.

From the govt pov it always a smart move to get a couple of extra votes in parliament. It was always possible to do this in FPP but in practice it was a two party system so there was nowhere to get a buffer from.

It's useful in case a really contentious issue comes up and one or two of your own MP's are tempted to vote against their own party or use their vote as leverage.

The real reason for getting a couple of extra votes is giving your government far more stability and no need to give in to policy demands from the backbenches.

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#1146509 3-Oct-2014 12:13

gzt: The Maori Party will be administering the existing Whanau Ora policies and get a bit more policy carrot at the end of term. ACT will be administering the charter schools polices.

From the govt pov it always a smart move to get a couple of extra votes in parliament. It was always possible to do this in FPP but in practice it was a two party system so there was nowhere to get a buffer from.

It's useful in case a really contentious issue comes up and one or two of your own MP's are tempted to vote against their own party or use their vote as leverage.

The real reason for getting a couple of extra votes is giving your government far more stability and no need to give in to policy demands from the backbenches.

Not to mention that the National Party can now distance themselves from changes that prove unpopular...

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#1147213 4-Oct-2014 14:50

National just lost it's majority after the special votes. Down to 60 out of 121. National loses one , Greens gain one.

That's good news for United Future and the Maori Party. I can't see it making a huge difference for ACT.

Final results: http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2014/

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#1147238 4-Oct-2014 16:37

Thanks to Seymour, they still have a majority. I don't think he's going to say no to anything

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#1147262 4-Oct-2014 17:39

Quite glad there isn't an unbridled power option anymore. The fact that each of the support parties are of very different sectors will probably mean that most of National's agenda will be achieved because they only need one of them to agree. But it does provide the option for the 4 MPs to show some cajones if something really outlandish is attempted.

Edit: So 1.5% of votes cast were invalid, the biggest portion from people who hadn't enrolled, casting a vote. Wonder who they voted for?

“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996

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#1147265 4-Oct-2014 17:42

Dingbatt: Quite glad there isn't an unbridled power option anymore. The fact that each of the support parties are of very different sectors will probably mean that most of National's agenda will be achieved because they only need one of them to agree. But it does provide the option for the 4 MPs to show some cajones if something really outlandish is attempted.

Agreed. But as stated, they still most probably has unbridled power thanks to the people of Epsom.

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#1147288 4-Oct-2014 17:54

joker97:
Dingbatt: Quite glad there isn't an unbridled power option anymore. The fact that each of the support parties are of very different sectors will probably mean that most of National's agenda will be achieved because they only need one of them to agree. But it does provide the option for the 4 MPs to show some cajones if something really outlandish is attempted.

Agreed. But as stated, they still most probably has unbridled power thanks to the people of Epsom.

No more likely to be that because not enough people voted for the 'rowboat of many colours'.
The agreements are for confidence and supply. I am willing to see what Mr Seymour produces before labeling him a lapdog. All three support parties now have much more power than a week ago. And don't forget that the residents of Ohariu are in the same boat as Epsom. Or is it just the position of the One MP Party on the political spectrum that exercises you more?

“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996