Selecting Lotto numbers

Forums › Off topic › Selecting Lotto numbers

1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5

Smpl Mnmlst
8874 posts

Uber Geek

ID Verified

Trusted

Subscriber

#2091409 16-Sep-2018 13:20

KiwiTim:
If you want to increase your chances of a big win work out how much you are planning to 'invest' in Lotto over the rest of your life, then spend it all in one draw, once only. There you have maximized your probability of winning..

What is your logic for this?

Sometimes I just sit and think. Other times I just sit.

Journeyman

1187 posts

Uber Geek

#2091498 16-Sep-2018 16:11

quickymart:

linw:

Deep down, I think (hope) you already know the answer to that one!

"I know it's all the luck of the draw, but still...". There is no still.

I know, just frustrating to see someone like my late grandmother who almost religiously bought a Lotto ticket way back when it started to almost up until she died, yet she never won more than a $300. Yet you have some jerk who buys one ticket (and hasn't ever bought one before) and wins everything. How is it fair? Again, I guess it's probably luck of the numbers, but still...

Well... it's not supposed to be fair. That was never the intention. It's a game of chance.

KiwiTim

376 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2091620 16-Sep-2018 18:32

eracode:
KiwiTim:

If you want to increase your chances of a big win work out how much you are planning to 'invest' in Lotto over the rest of your life, then spend it all in one draw, once only. There you have maximized your probability of winning..

What is your logic for this?

Here's a simple example: A lottery issues 1000 tickets. Your probability of winning if you buy one ticket is 1/1000

If you buy 10 tickets in the same lottery draw, the probability of winning is 10/1000 or 1/100; much better odds, but on average, 99 times out of 100 you will win nothing.

The more tickets you buy in the same draw, then the higher your chance of winning.

If you buy 10 tickets in 10 separate lotteries of 1000 tickets, your probability of winning in each lottery remains the same, 1/1000, so it is better to buy them all at once.

Of course the probability of winning a major prize in lotto is extremely low, so most likely doing this would be a complete waste of money.

The math of lotto is a bit more complicated. Have a look here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lottery_mathematics

Batman

Mad Scientist
29769 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2091622 16-Sep-2018 18:34

Whatever the math says, someone wins it every few weeks.

Goosey

2834 posts

Uber Geek

Subscriber

#2091623 16-Sep-2018 18:36

KiwiTim:

eracode:
KiwiTim:

If you want to increase your chances of a big win work out how much you are planning to 'invest' in Lotto over the rest of your life, then spend it all in one draw, once only. There you have maximized your probability of winning..

What is your logic for this?

Here's a simple example: A lottery issues 1000 tickets. Your probability of winning if you buy one ticket is 1/1000

If you buy 10 tickets in the same lottery draw, the probability of winning is 10/1000 or 1/100; much better odds, but on average, 99 times out of 100 you will win nothing.

The more tickets you buy in the same draw, then the higher your chance of winning.

If you buy 10 tickets in 10 separate lotteries of 1000 tickets, your probability of winning in each lottery remains the same, 1/1000, so it is better to buy them all at once.

Of course the probability of winning a major prize in lotto is extremely low, so most likely doing this would be a complete waste of money.

The math of lotto is a bit more complicated. Have a look here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lottery_mathematics

or look here;

https://mylotto.co.nz/game-information

scroll down to odds and you will see for powerball its 1 in 38million or there abouts.

eracode

Smpl Mnmlst
8874 posts

Uber Geek

ID Verified

Trusted

Subscriber

#2091694 16-Sep-2018 21:41

Journeyman:
quickymart:

linw:

Deep down, I think (hope) you already know the answer to that one!

"I know it's all the luck of the draw, but still...". There is no still.

I know, just frustrating to see someone like my late grandmother who almost religiously bought a Lotto ticket way back when it started to almost up until she died, yet she never won more than a $300. Yet you have some jerk who buys one ticket (and hasn't ever bought one before) and wins everything. How is it fair? Again, I guess it's probably luck of the numbers, but still...

Well... it's not supposed to be fair. That was never the intention. It's a game of chance.

Of course it’s ‘fair’ - it’s only not fair if it’s rigged.

Sometimes I just sit and think. Other times I just sit.

eracode

Smpl Mnmlst
8874 posts

Uber Geek

ID Verified

Trusted

Subscriber

#2091695 16-Sep-2018 21:50

KiwiTim:

eracode:
KiwiTim:

If you want to increase your chances of a big win work out how much you are planning to 'invest' in Lotto over the rest of your life, then spend it all in one draw, once only. There you have maximized your probability of winning..

What is your logic for this?

Here's a simple example: A lottery issues 1000 tickets. Your probability of winning if you buy one ticket is 1/1000

If you buy 10 tickets in the same lottery draw, the probability of winning is 10/1000 or 1/100; much better odds, but on average, 99 times out of 100 you will win nothing.

The more tickets you buy in the same draw, then the higher your chance of winning.

If you buy 10 tickets in 10 separate lotteries of 1000 tickets, your probability of winning in each lottery remains the same, 1/1000, so it is better to buy them all at once.

Of course the probability of winning a major prize in lotto is extremely low, so most likely doing this would be a complete waste of money.

The math of lotto is a bit more complicated. Have a look here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lottery_mathematics

This is ridiculous and wrong. So by your logic, reductio ad absurdum, it would be best to buy all the tickets in a lottery? This might increase your chance of winning to 100% but the value of your win would be less than what you spent.

The key point in any lottery, raffle or game of chance is ‘expected value’ or expected winnings. The expected value of a dollar spent in Lotto is something like 30c - more or less. If you spend $2, the EV is 60c. If you spend $10,000 the EV is $3,000. The odds don’t change just because you spend more.

Sometimes I just sit and think. Other times I just sit.

Quic Broadband

Move to New Zealand's best fibre broadband service (affiliate link). Free setup code: R587125ERQ6VE. Note that to use Quic Broadband you must be comfortable with configuring your own router.

rugrat

3108 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2091698 16-Sep-2018 21:59

It can have +EV when the jackpots big enough.

Still wouldn't recommend to buy every ticket, as if have to share prize will be loss of millions.

eracode

Smpl Mnmlst
8874 posts

Uber Geek

ID Verified

Trusted

Subscriber

#2091701 16-Sep-2018 22:04

rugrat:

It can have +EV when the jackpots big enough.

Still wouldn't recommend to buy every ticket, as if have to share prize will be loss of millions.

When the prize pool is very large due to jackpotting, the EV may (or may not) be larger than in earlier weeks - but in that one current lottery the EV (i.e. the odds) stays the same no matter how much you spend - which is not what @KiwiTim is saying.

in any given draw, if the Lotteries Commission takes in, say, $10m in ticket sales and the total value of prizes paid out is $3m, the EV per $1 spent is 30c. The EV doesn’t change if you spend more.

Sometimes I just sit and think. Other times I just sit.

rugrat

3108 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2091705 16-Sep-2018 22:17

Yep, if you buy more lines it increases chances of getting prize, but the EV stays the same, as the more lines one purchases the bigger the loss when don't win, or reduced prize when take off cost of tickets from winnings.

eracode

Smpl Mnmlst
8874 posts

Uber Geek

ID Verified

Trusted

Subscriber

#2091706 16-Sep-2018 22:33

rugrat:

It can have +EV when the jackpots big enough.

Still wouldn't recommend to buy every ticket, as if have to share prize will be loss of millions.

If it was possible to buy all the tickets in Lotto, after all the winnings you would still have a ‘loss of millions’ even if you didn’t have to share them.

in fact, if you had all the tickets you would never have to share the prize because no-one else can win anything because no-one else has a ticket - you’ve got ‘em all.

Don’t try this at home.

Sometimes I just sit and think. Other times I just sit.

quickymart

13969 posts

Uber Geek

ID Verified

#2091710 16-Sep-2018 22:50

It would be very difficult to buy enough tickets to cover all the numbers anyway and still make a profit, as I figure it. The only way that would work would be if it was a $50 million prize or something.

rugrat

3108 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2091723 17-Sep-2018 00:54

eracode:

rugrat:Big jackpots drive sales, and Lotto expects to sell 1.5 million tickets for today's draw, which should mean this weekend's prize-pool is worth more than the money collected from ticket sales

It can have +EV when the jackpots big enough.

Still wouldn't recommend to buy every ticket, as if have to share prize will be loss of millions.

If it was possible to buy all the tickets in Lotto, after all the winnings you would still have a ‘loss of millions’ even if you didn’t have to share them.

in fact, if you had all the tickets you would never have to share the prize because no-one else can win anything because no-one else has a ticket - you’ve got ‘em all.

Don’t try this at home.

ok, I'll rephrase, ticket combinations. There is no limit to number of tickets sold, if someone has 123456, someone else can have it to.

From the +EV link:

"Big jackpots drive sales, and Lotto expects to sell 1.5 million tickets for today's draw, which should mean this weekend's prize-pool is worth more than the money collected from ticket sales."

If there are too many purchases it will alter the pay out , and change it to -EV, so yep buying every combination won't work.

In the article linked to if ticket sales are 1.5 million, with the jack pot for that week more is paid out then collected.

Hopefully I got it this time....

KiwiTim

376 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2091773 17-Sep-2018 09:36

Quoting the +EV link, "You can buy more tickets, which increases your chances from very slim to just slightly less very slim"

Quoting from here: https://clark.com/personal-finance-credit/do-multiple-powerball-tickets-improve-odds/

Which uses an example from an American lottery

"So just how much does buying 500 Powerball tickets improve your odds of winning over, say, just one?

Assuming that each Powerball ticket purchased has a different number combination, any ticket provides a 1 in 292,201,338 chance of hitting the jackpot. Possessing a second ticket improves those odds to 2 in 292,201,338. Getting a third makes the odds 3 in 292,201,338. And so forth it goes.So on one hand, you can say that buying a second Powerball ticket doubles your odds of winning the grand prize.But on the other, you can say that a second ticket improves your odds from 0.0000003422% to … 0.0000006844%.

Buying additional tickets ‘increases your relative chance, but your absolute chance is tiny — so tiny that people don’t grasp it,’ Ronald Wasserstein, executive director of the American Statistical Association, told the Sun."

Obviously, it's a stupid thing to do, as your chance winning is still extremely tiny.

eracode

Smpl Mnmlst
8874 posts

Uber Geek

ID Verified

Trusted

Subscriber

#2091803 17-Sep-2018 10:59

Short story: You may have slightly better odds from one draw to another if a lottery keeps jackpotting - but buying more tickets in any given draw cannot increase your odds in that draw - which is what @KiwiTim was originally advising.

Sometimes I just sit and think. Other times I just sit.

1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5