Another earthquake in NZ? A very convincing video on youtube.

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Linuxluver

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#445886 5-Mar-2011 22:49

tdgeek: Ive watched many solar system docos, including the sun, I cannot recall solar particles and earthquakes being linked. Or even mentioned. While this clips shows the solar events and the possible earthquake events, how does one cause the other?

Ken Rings theories carry more weight as at least the moon has a strong pull on the earth, although scientifically, not enough to create an earthquake, but they do admit, enough to possibly cause an earthquake if it is teetering on slipping at that time.

Again, what is the basis of solar articles potentially causing an earthquake?

Maybe you missed my post. Some kind of pressure from solar wind appears to be in play. When solar wind is faster (more pressure) the narrator implies this blocks quakes.....and the period of concern is several days after the peak, when the speed has dropped...presumably reducing some kind of pressure on the planet from the solar wind. Presumably the planet surface (or interior or both) 'flexes' in response to solar pressure changes.

Is it for real? The effect may exist....as the solar wind does blow and we now have at least one spacecraft out there literally 'sailing' in the solar wind......but is there a significant (as in having consequential effects) impact of the solar wind on the entire planet in relation to seismic activity?

I have no idea. But the idea is - at a minimum - fun.

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tdgeek

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#445890 5-Mar-2011 23:01

Hi Linuxluver

I understand that, but given the force required to create an earhquake is huge, and we as earthlings cannot feel that force upon us, I cannot see how that force (or reduction in pressure due to the reduction of solar wind) cannot affect us. On a similar note, I assume that our weight must change when the moon is above us due to its pull?)

A spacecraft is in a vacuum, so any wind will have an effect. But yes it is fun to hear these theories as right now they are so relevant.

That aftershock I mentioned was 3.6, a few kms from me, a force of 3 tonnes of energy. And another as I type this. I need to stop posting tonight!

tdgeek

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#445891 5-Mar-2011 23:03

but given the force required to create an earhquake is huge, and we as earthlings cannot feel that force upon us

Badly worded, I meant "but given the force required to create an earhquake is huge, and we as earthlings cannot feel that force (of the solarwind or reduction of its pressure) upon us

tardtasticx

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#445898 6-Mar-2011 00:23

Well only time will tell. I hope, like all NZ people would, that this doesnt happen. Its the last thing we need. To me, that all doesnt make much sense, and the basic idea of it doesnt really seem right to me, but I dont know anything about this stuff. If earth, the sun, the moon and some other planet aligned then maybe I would see it could cause some crazy pull and make a quake or something, but this doesnt seem possible to me.

Cululu

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#445930 6-Mar-2011 10:13

tdgeek: but given the force required to create an earhquake is huge, and we as earthlings cannot feel that force upon us

Badly worded, I meant "but given the force required to create an earhquake is huge, and we as earthlings cannot feel that force (of the solarwind or reduction of its pressure) upon us

Ok, just some improvise and imagination here.
Why the force required to create an earthquake is huge? Maybe it doesn't.
The underground of our earth is very much alive. It has its own huge energy and force. Perhaps, it doesn't required a large force, just a small force to "skillfully deflect" its own force. Therefore to create an earthquake.

Of course, there is no reference on this. But, hey, the first step of science is making hypothesis.
Maybe many years later someone will prove it to be right or wrong, who knows.

gzt

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#445957 6-Mar-2011 11:31

In this case (the video) the hypothesis and methods used to apply it to the factual data are not stated, so it is pretty much impossible to proceed to the next stage - independent testing and verification of that hypothesis.

ScottStevensNZ

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#446894 9-Mar-2011 11:04

Its not a theory, its an assertion. A theory conforms to empirical data and is used to explain and predict.

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LookingUp

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#446920 9-Mar-2011 12:39

What I don't get, having (belatedly) watched the YouTube clip, is how events at a latitude on the Sun relate to events at a latitude on the Earth.

Assuming the coronal ejections shoot more or less straight out from the Sun, only those on the equator have any chance of impacting Earth. Those at any significant latitude from the equator will shoot off out of the plane of the solar system and miss us.

Of a potentially more disturbing nature is the recent increase in the rate of movement of the Earth's magnetic pole, hinting that interesting things are happening at the Earth's core.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/the-changing-world/news/article.cfm?c_id=1502962&objectid=10710542

On the subject of predictions, looking at this interesting site [http://quake.crowe.co.nz/QuakeYears/default.aspx] and setting the quake radius to be 200km, it would have been possible to predict a Mag 3 quake centred within 200km of Chch any month in the last 4 years, with a better than even chance of picking a Mag 4 quake any month in the same period. ;-)

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ScottStevensNZ

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#446999 9-Mar-2011 16:07

LookingUp: What I don't get, having (belatedly) watched the YouTube clip, is how events at a latitude on the Sun relate to events at a latitude on the Earth.

Assuming the coronal ejections shoot more or less straight out from the Sun, only those on the equator have any chance of impacting Earth. Those at any significant latitude from the equator will shoot off out of the plane of the solar system and miss us.

Of a potentially more disturbing nature is the recent increase in the rate of movement of the Earth's magnetic pole, hinting that interesting things are happening at the Earth's core.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/the-changing-world/news/article.cfm?c_id=1502962&objectid=10710542

On the subject of predictions, looking at this interesting site [http://quake.crowe.co.nz/QuakeYears/default.aspx] and setting the quake radius to be 200km, it would have been possible to predict a Mag 3 quake centred within 200km of Chch any month in the last 4 years, with a better than even chance of picking a Mag 4 quake any month in the same period. ;-)

Thats very much after the fact though so not valid...If the method was viable then there should have been a proven track record of predictions over the last few years there will be a quake between magnitude x and y between these dates at this approximate location - however there are not. Its much like a fortune teller saying after an event that the 'signs have been pointing to it for months'.

I predict that sometime this year there will be an aircraft accident, I can't tell what airline, but the plane will be white and it will have blue or red in its logo.

LookingUp

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#447012 9-Mar-2011 16:56

ScottStevensNZ: I predict that sometime this year there will be an aircraft accident, I can't tell what airline, but the plane will be white and it will have blue or red in its logo.

The point of my post was not to predict the past, but to point out that if I'd had access to (for eg.) 2007 & 2008 data, it would be pretty safe to have made predictions for the prevalence of Mag 3 & 4 earthquakes in 2009, 2010 and beyond on basis that there's pretty much always one or more a month within 200km of Chch.

Without looking at the data, I'd be surprised if the same prediction couldn't be applied to Wellington and many other places in NZ.

Maybe we should open a thread for GeekZone predictions?

Things are LookingUp.... A photo from my back yard :-)

ScottStevensNZ

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Master Geek

#447155 10-Mar-2011 08:59

As I said though, I can predict an air crash too based on looking at historical data, but the prediction itself is meaningless because its so general.

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