networkn:

 

God helps us. 

 

Apparently he doesn’t.

networkn:

 

That a number of 'reputable' US Election Predictor sites have said that 54 times out of 100, Trump will win the US Election.

 

I am honestly just beyond blown away he got elected the first time, let alone potentially even remotely an option a second time. 

 

God helps us. 

 

 

 

If you watch his early performances it wasn't that surprising he won the 1st time, it was more a remote option the 2nd time and he lost. It's the 3rd time that beggars belief. 

Technofreak:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/wairarapa-boy-racer-incident-violent-attack-sparked-after-drivers-car-hit-spectator-says-bystander/PI2P52XP6JDZNCH7JMQESK4HDQ/

 

The bystander said it was “gutting” when a select few ruined the events for everybody else.

“The hosts and organisers that go to show off their skills, they just want it to be about skids - a way to practise for competitions, some of the spectators get in the way and get drunk,” he said.

“I think we need a spot to go where all the interested people can go and practise safely,” he said.

I agree they need somewhere to go. 

Here's a novel idea, get off your a##e and organise yourselves to get such a place. That's how it used to work.

Of course there's possibly a couple of issues today. Most will want it for free and some won't be interested in abiding by any rules. So we'll end up with the same louts causing trouble out on public roads just as happened here.

networkn:

 

That a number of 'reputable' US Election Predictor sites have said that 54 times out of 100, Trump will win the US Election.

 

I am honestly just beyond blown away he got elected the first time, let alone potentially even remotely an option a second time. 

 

God helps us. 

 

 

 

Unfortunately we (collectively) get what we deserve most of the time.

The problem we have here and in the the US and most other western democracies is there is slowly a bigger and bigger group of disenfranchised people, some of whom are genuine and some who are victims of their own victim mentality. 

Mainstream political parties of both the left and right have done nothing to address the problems that have created this growing group of people. They are either blind to what's going on or keep kicking the can down the road in the hope it will go away. Very often the solutions will be unpopular with much of the electorate and rather than do what's right for the country the politicians do what is right for them.

Eventually and inevitably it ends up in a boil over. There's plenty of events in history. The French revolution for one.

The other option is along comes someone like Trump who tells these people he is their saviour. No one else is acknowledging their plight so they place their support with someone who appears to be offering the some hope. Hitler is a good recent example.

Even if Kamala Harris wins, unless she does something to address these problems (which I'd say very unlikely) this problem will be festering away until there is a boil over.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/532212/auckland-park-to-lose-benches-after-divisive-debate

We seem to be getting better and better at finding the wrong solution to a problem.

The benches were not the cause of the "anti social" behaviour, yet removing them was the solution. The "anti social" behaviour is still going to exist. So instead of addressing the real issue they remove the benches which were used by a lot of other people who behaved themselves.

Reading between the lines I wonder that the complaint might be the sort of person that attracts the attention of the perpetrators of the "anti social" behaviour or goes out of their way to be offended.

Technofreak:

 

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/532212/auckland-park-to-lose-benches-after-divisive-debate

 

We seem to be getting better and better at finding the wrong solution to a problem.

 

The benches were not the cause of the "anti social" behaviour, yet removing them was the solution. The "anti social" behaviour is still going to exist. So instead of addressing the real issue they remove the benches which were used by a lot of other people who behaved themselves.

 

Reading between the lines I wonder that the complaint might be the sort of person that attracts the attention of the perpetrators of the "anti social" behaviour or goes out of their way to be offended.

 

I'm reminded of these memes:

networkn: It's like people who blame religion for the bad things that 'religious' people do. The problem is the people not the presence of believing In a higher power. If religion didn't exist, said people would find another mechanism for their bad behaviour. Predators are drawn to the vulnerable and religion provides comfort and hope to those people.

Slightly off topic, but while religion may not directly cause it*, religious institutions do a damn good job of providing resources and access to these people and shielding them from any consequences. Governments, schools, and other institutions have begun to accept that positions of power imply responsibility and oversight, and have things like mandated reporters, background checks, and recording accusations. Churches seem to have their heads as deeply in sand as possible, and treat every accusation as 'the first time anyone has said anything about this person', promptly followed by shuffling them to another area and deleting all records.

* Arguments exist around e.g. forced chastity, crusades in the name of god etc.

SomeoneSomewhere:

 

networkn: It's like people who blame religion for the bad things that 'religious' people do. The problem is the people not the presence of believing In a higher power. If religion didn't exist, said people would find another mechanism for their bad behaviour. Predators are drawn to the vulnerable and religion provides comfort and hope to those people.

 

Slightly off topic, but while religion may not directly cause it*, religious institutions do a damn good job of providing resources and access to these people and shielding them from any consequences. Governments, schools, and other institutions have begun to accept that positions of power imply responsibility and oversight, and have things like mandated reporters, background checks, and recording accusations. Churches seem to have their heads as deeply in sand as possible, and treat every accusation as 'the first time anyone has said anything about this person', promptly followed by shuffling them to another area and deleting all records.

 

* Arguments exist around e.g. forced chastity, crusades in the name of god etc.

 

There's the institutional stuff that you have mentioned which exists in many other institutions. The first reaction of an institution is to protect it's own position.

What makes organised religion particularly attractive to predators is it's other features. The suppression of free will, social control and sexual prohibition/manipulation all provide a fertile territory for deviants hiding in plain sight.

As I said, institutions have begun to accept that they need to stop protecting their own. It's not foolproof, there are exceptions, but things have definitely changed and are continuing to change.

Churches, on the other hand, still generate headlines like this: Catholic Church planned to house teen-sexting priest on primary school grounds.

Much made in the media about no road fatalities over the Labour weekend.

The Law of Chance never seems to occur to the media, police and commentators. Near misses, accidents with life threatening injuries, accidents where someone dies 5 minutes after the 7am deadline. There's never any details of these in the headline, but spokespersons for various groups claim improvements of this and that, in road behaviour which is a load of bollocks!!!   Every person who steps into a vehicle plays with chance in their life each time!!
Here endeth the lesson..... 😬

tcabw:

 

Much made in the media about no road fatalities over the Labour weekend.

 

The Law of Chance never seems to occur to the media, police and commentators. Near misses, accidents with life threatening injuries, accidents where someone dies 5 minutes after the 7am deadline. There's never any details of these in the headline, but spokespersons for various groups claim improvements of this and that, in road behaviour which is a load of bollocks!!!   Every person who steps into a vehicle plays with chance in their life each time!!
Here endeth the lesson..... 😬

 

They're not mutually exclusive. 

Yes, it's statistical and there's always an element of chance.

That does not mean that deaths per year or per million km travelled is somehow an unchanging constant, or that it's pointless to try to lower it. It's like arguing that seatbelts are useless because people sometimes still die while wearing them.

Technofreak: Reading between the lines I wonder that the complaint might be the sort of person that attracts the attention of the perpetrators of the "anti social" behaviour or goes out of their way to be offended.

I don't think she deliberately attracted their attention, sounds more like a bunch of teenage boys made rude gestures at her.  Not condoning that behaviour but holy [bleep] lady, have you never encountered teenage boys before?  I'm sure that if you went back 5,000 years you'd find cuneiform tablets where na-Karen-in is complaining about how the boys working on the Ziggurat made offensive gestures at her.  The response isn't to go full Karen on them and spoil things for the entire community but instead either roll your eyes and ignore them or make a rude gesture in return to put them in their place.  It's teenage boys playing up, not drug dealers using the benches to sell heroin to children.

tcabw: The Law of Chance never seems to occur to the media, police and commentators. Near misses, accidents with life threatening injuries, accidents where someone dies 5 minutes after the 7am deadline. There's never any details of these in the headline, but spokespersons for various groups claim improvements of this and that, in road behaviour which is a load of bollocks!!!   Every person who steps into a vehicle plays with chance in their life each time!!

In particular look up regression to the mean.  If in five years' time the road toll stays at zero we'll know something worked.  If not, it's just regression to the mean.