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Fred99
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  #1693220 21-Dec-2016 13:07
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MikeB4:

 

frankv:

 

dickytim: So we don't want the warnings until the data is crunched, but by the time the data is available the tsunami has been and gone?

On the other hand we don't want preventative warnings unless the data suggests there is a real danger coming.

This is the rock and the hard place.

 

Personally, I don't believe the story of it taking an hour to crunch the numbers. With modern computers and well-designed software (especially multi-threaded), there's very little analysis that will take an hour. I suspect the number-crunching story is a convenient myth, and that the actual time is spent on getting people to verify the results and decide what to do with it.

 

 

 

 

My brother in law is an engineer working in the field and he confirms the time and complexity 

 

 

 

 

Well, they're still analysing data for the Kaikoura quake.

 

That doesn't excuse the fact that any idiot could look at the Kaikoura tsunami gauge, see that there was 2m wave height, and issue a warning immediately.

 

That didn't happen - because they didn't have anybody looking.

 

 

 

 



PaulBags
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  #1693291 21-Dec-2016 14:31
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Countries with much bigger super computer budgets than us can't calculate, say, the path of a hurricane accurately - and that with many hours to make the prediction.

Last I looked, and this was awhile ago, there are multiple models and none are accurate all the time. Also, these calculations run in parallel computing, and apparently are susceptible to cumulative rounding errors - I don't know if fixing that has been figured out yet.

Oblivian
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  #1693302 21-Dec-2016 14:47
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Bear in mind regardless of how long it takes to make the decisions. The ministry of civil defence emergency management can make advisories working with the government bodies (GNS and so on). These may be at a national or regional level. But local body council can take this and work with it, or make their own decisions with it. Which can and does cause time delays.

 

There was some indifference between the national and local information for the Kaikoura event and that more or less where it stemmed from. And now changes are afoot.

 

For this reason theres been a big shift to the latest campaign we see

 

Official warnings will be broadcast through a number of channels, such as radio, TV, facebook, and sirens.

 

A long or strong earthquake is your tsunami warning. Don’t wait for the sirens before evacuating.

 

^^ from the CCC tsunami info page

 

 

 

https://www.sunlive.co.nz/news/143041-crying-wolf-tsunami-warnings.html 



blakamin

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  #1694000 22-Dec-2016 19:55
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Tsunami Warnings since ChCh and more recently Kaikoura = Scared, panicked public (if they have social media) for about 5 minutes after every EQ ever.

 

Evacuation orders without sirens = :( Seriously effed up (and possible deaths if one happened because if you had no power, or FB, you'd be dead)

 

Evacuation order with sirens = possible panic and clogged roads but some people might actually know about it. But only if there's  proof.

 

 

 

Continuous tsunami warnings WITHOUT EXPLAINING TO THE PUBLIC WHAT IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW BECAUSE WE HAVE NO IDEA = Public not giving a toss after about 10 of them, and possibly dying when a real one happens.

 

 

 

 

 

The fact that "an earthquake is your tsunami warning" is pathetic.

 

And FACEBOOK? Seriously? Might as well just put it on tardme forums for all the good that goes on there. The Donald won an election because everyone believes what they read on FB.

 

 

 

 

 

 

blakamin

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  #1694003 22-Dec-2016 19:59
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Oblivian:

 


 

 

 

https://www.sunlive.co.nz/news/143041-crying-wolf-tsunami-warnings.html 

 

 

 

Seems I'm not the only one.

 

 


Oblivian
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  #1694065 22-Dec-2016 22:45
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blakamin:

 

And FACEBOOK? Seriously? Might as well just put it on tardme forums for all the good that goes on there. The Donald won an election because everyone believes what they read on FB.

 

 

 

 

And oddly I bought this, and the fact the 'radio' other than live talkback never broadcast anything related to it (being on national programming autoDJ for the night) was a little laughable up with someone yesterday.

 

Given facebooks 'popular' feed algorithms that people forget to bypass with 'most recent' I was amazed at the 15-20min old information that I was being bombarded with from associates smacking that ever popular share button, even though the super important updates had been over-ridden some 3mins later with a more up to date status that at the time had not had the same viral exposure

 

But timeline accuracy is not of the essence in that sort of situation... right.

 
 
 
 

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MikeB4
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  #1694067 22-Dec-2016 22:51
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I think the the whole crying wolf thing is a load of nonsense expounded by folks who were disapponted with not getting entertainment from destruction .




Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

blakamin

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  #1694076 22-Dec-2016 23:18
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MikeB4: I think the the whole crying wolf thing is a load of nonsense expounded by folks who were disapponted with not getting entertainment from destruction .

 

 

 

So you finally found the point of the thread? Yaay!

 

Glad to see your opinion. Thank you.

Talkiet
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  #1694077 22-Dec-2016 23:49
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MikeB4: I think the the whole crying wolf thing is a load of nonsense expounded by folks who were disapponted with not getting entertainment from destruction .

 

I think you're wrong because I live in one of the absolute prime, most high risk areas. I assure you I wouldn't see a tsunami as 'entertainment'. I'm genuinely concerned that the approach so far taken by officials will lead to inappropriate behaviour by the public when there's a real threat.

 

Oh course on the internet everyone's entitled to their opinion, but in at least my case, your inflammatory generalisation is wrong.

 

Cheers - N

 

 




Please note all comments are from my own brain and don't necessarily represent the position or opinions of my employer, previous employers, colleagues, friends or pets.

Fred99
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  #1694146 23-Dec-2016 08:11
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Yabanize
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  #1694207 23-Dec-2016 10:05
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I think an issue is the wording / what the media tell people. Eg: The media tell people there is a tsunami warning and people start freaking out.

 

They should say

 

"There has been an earthquake in PNG, we are investigating whether a tsunami is likely to hit New Zealand. In the mean time, stay out of the water"

 

And people need to realise that it was only  warning and not an evacuation

 
 
 
 

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tdgeek
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  #1694298 23-Dec-2016 12:02
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Oblivian:

 

Bear in mind regardless of how long it takes to make the decisions. The ministry of civil defence emergency management can make advisories working with the government bodies (GNS and so on). These may be at a national or regional level. But local body council can take this and work with it, or make their own decisions with it. Which can and does cause time delays.

 

There was some indifference between the national and local information for the Kaikoura event and that more or less where it stemmed from. And now changes are afoot.

 

For this reason theres been a big shift to the latest campaign we see

 

Official warnings will be broadcast through a number of channels, such as radio, TV, facebook, and sirens.

 

A long or strong earthquake is your tsunami warning. Don’t wait for the sirens before evacuating.

 

^^ from the CCC tsunami info page

 

 

 

https://www.sunlive.co.nz/news/143041-crying-wolf-tsunami-warnings.html 

 

 

 

Thats right. The Tsunami warning is in reality, an advisory that you can or cannot go back home yet. It should not be called a Tsunami "warning"

 

 

 

 

 


Fred99
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  #1694375 23-Dec-2016 15:15
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Critics of the crappy underfunded tsunami warning system vindicated:

 

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/321071/govt-gives-extra-$3m-to-geonet

 

 

tdgeek
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  #1694378 23-Dec-2016 15:23
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Fred99:

 

Critics of the crappy underfunded tsunami warning system vindicated:

 

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/321071/govt-gives-extra-$3m-to-geonet

 

 

 

 

I assume most everyone has been critical of it. Be interesting to see what they do, as 3 Mill isnt much. A warning system will warn me in a few seconds, yet I already know

 

I doubt that within seconds of a sea EQ they will advise me there is no tsunami risk. If they do, then thats something.  I assume this is ONLY for local NZ quakes?

gzt

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  #1694490 23-Dec-2016 23:27
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I'm fairly sure this will see a staff on duty to assess all risk events:

http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/201824143/geonet-wants-24-hour-monitoring-so-can-give-quicker-tsunami-war

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