Linuxluver:

 

Coal is running at just under 60% of capacity. 

 

Geothermal is just over 90% of capacity. 

 

Gas is at 67% of capacity. 

 

Power from the South Island is running at 41% of capacity....... 

 

(Source: Electricity Map app). 

 

I wonder where the distribution bottlenecks are? We appear to have spare capacity. 

 

I have 2 Tesla Powerwalls.....so no problem if they decide to black out our area. Ever since power generation  moved to a commercial, for-profit footing, it's made very good sense to generate as much of your own power as you can and store some of it. The big operators just aren't reliable at peak times like long cold days in mid winter...... 

 

As per one of my other responses, the capacities you see are nameplate capacities, not what is available for dispatch.

Coal: One of the three units at huntly appears to have been offline for some time, I assume due to urgent maintenance / repair.

Gas: big production issues with gas at the moment - can't run all the gas stuff at the same time without running the pipes out of pressure.

Geothermal never seems to be quite at 100%. I think it is due to variability in brine temperatures and flow rates from wells and the likes

Somebody else mentioned capacity on the HVDC link may have been reduced due to maintenance.

"The big operators just aren't reliable at peak times like long cold days in mid winter...... "

This is the first time we have had this situation that I can recall in the last 15 years, where we have had to have rolling blackouts that were not the result of equipment failure. Suspect for most of NZ the risk of power cuts comes from issues in the local distribution networks (like trees falling on power-lines), rather than an systemic issue with the for profit nature of the power grid.

Of course there are issues with the current power market, and I think that we should have just stuck with the NZ electricity board.