Interesting video about Brexit

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#1579709 24-Jun-2016 17:37

Apparently there are already calls for similar referendums in France and Holland. I wonder what they think of this result in Greece?

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#1579710 24-Jun-2016 17:37

eracode:

networkn:

Didn't Cameron come out and say a few days/weeks ago, that unless the margin was significant he would block it?

I can't really understand how a 3% winning margin could be grounds for what is potentially about to occur? I would have thought something as major as this should require 65% (or say 2/3 in favour) or default to stay.

It's a non binding referndum anyways right?

He did say that and it is non-binding - but it would be 'monumentally stupid' as mikeB4 says. This is all incredibly fascinating but would be even more interesting if Cameron tried that.

Why would it be monumentally stupid?

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#1579712 24-Jun-2016 17:39

JWR:

There is no margin of error in an election since you can count the votes exactly.

What I mean is that it's SO close (and 3% would be within the margin of error in a poll generally).

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#1579713 24-Jun-2016 17:40

networkn:
I can't understand how pro exitors are able to take their "leader" seriously now. He came out a few minutes after polls closed and admitted defeat, then accused the PM of rigging the election, turns out he was wrong. What a fool.

I saw those headlines but I did not see any quotes from him indicating he said that. In a 2015 parliamentary election he failed to win his seat and his supporters were talking all kinds of conspiracy stuff so I wonder if it related to that. I dislike the guy but I could not find where he said this about 'rigged'.

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#1579714 24-Jun-2016 17:43

networkn:

What I mean is that it's SO close (and 3% would be within the margin of error in a poll generally).

Margin of error only applies when you are extrapolating from a sample. A full vote doesn't have a margin of error.

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#1579715 24-Jun-2016 17:44

DravidDavid:
MikeB4: The currency will rebound and some tidy profits made. Something that did come to mind what could this do to our bubble?

So...Find a broker and empty credit card? Who do I talk to about doing this? haha

Credit card? Find a gambling counsellor to talk to ; ).

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#1579716 24-Jun-2016 17:52

Its a sad day IMO. It is stuff like this when democracy doesn't work well, as many people didn't vote, and it will be significantly less than 50% of all eligible people who actually voted for it. These countries are bringing down the shutter on world trade. The US is heading the same way, and also likely to veto the TPA (which perhaps is a good thing for NZ due to the lack of benefits), because they don't think they are getting a good deal out of it. I see many NZ stocks fell significantly today as a result. I expect carnage next week. I have read that this will likely cause the UK now to go into a recession, and they have a significant amount of debt. It may have a knock on effect and cause a global recessions, and cause the Auckland housing bubble to finally burst.

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#1579717 24-Jun-2016 17:55

networkn:

JWR:

There is no margin of error in an election since you can count the votes exactly.

What I mean is that it's SO close (and 3% would be within the margin of error in a poll generally).

Yep. It is quite close.

But, elections trump polls.

Of course, there will be recounts.

Which way do we think the people who can't follow written instructions mainly voted?

Also, have they counted the overseas/expat vote yet?

There must be a considerable number of those.

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#1579718 24-Jun-2016 17:56

mattwnz:and cause the Auckland housing bubble to finally burst.

Might be the only good thing to come from this

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#1579720 24-Jun-2016 18:03

Interesting looking at the breakdown by locality. Most of the big economic areas of England voted to stay in (Greater London, Bristol, Leeds, Manchester Liverpool). It really is scary how much extremists like Farage (and Trump) seem to be able to influence people with their agendas.

Also interesting to look at the age breakdowns. With the vast majority of under 30's voting for stay, with numbers shifting to leave the older they get.

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#1579721 24-Jun-2016 18:06

mattwnz:

Its a sad day IMO. It is stuff like this when democracy doesn't work well, as many people didn't vote, and it will be significantly less than 50% of all eligible people who actually voted for it. These countries are bringing down the shutter on world trade. The US is heading the same way, and also likely to veto the TPA (which perhaps is a good thing for NZ due to the lack of benefits), because they don't think they are getting a good deal out of it. I see many NZ stocks fell significantly today as a result. I expect carnage next week. I have read that this will likely cause the UK now to go into a recession, and they have a significant amount of debt. It may have a knock on effect and cause a global recessions, and cause the Auckland housing bubble to finally burst.

There was a high voter turn out with over 70% voting. You are assuming that most of those who didn't vote would vote to stay. However extrapolating the voter in the Referendum it is fair to say that the result would remain with a 100% turn out.

The currency will come back especially with profit takers selling their newly purchased currency. The Japanese will move to lower the Yen and the Pound will recover but not to the the pre-vote levels, which is not a bad thing for the UK as exports will net more revenue.

Any changes are at least 2 years away if Chapter 50 was invoked immediately, this may not be done until the new year meaning there is probably a 2.5 year lead in more than enough time to adjust.

As for the Auckland bubble burst? the prices are not been driven from Europe they are being driven from closer to home. There maybe a small rise in interest rates but given our major markets are closer to home we are probably in a good position, after all the GFC only gave us a speed wobble.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

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#1579723 24-Jun-2016 18:16

ajobbins:
Interesting looking at the breakdown by locality. Most of the big economic areas of England voted to stay in (Greater London, Bristol, Leeds, Manchester Liverpool). It really is scary how much extremists like Farage (and Trump) seem to be able to influence people with their agendas.

Also interesting to look at the age breakdowns. With the vast majority of under 30's voting for stay, with numbers shifting to leave the older they get.

52% is more than any single goverment party would ever get in the UK, so for that many people to agree is monumental!

Under 30s are far more susceptible to the fear campaign (or just about any campaign that promises them more) and since when has anyone EVER voted an under 30 into a position of governmental power? They're still figuring out their own place in the world, let alone the role of their country...

I'd be interested to see a regional tally, like the way the US vote works.

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#1579724 24-Jun-2016 18:16

MikeB4:

mattwnz:

Its a sad day IMO. It is stuff like this when democracy doesn't work well, as many people didn't vote, and it will be significantly less than 50% of all eligible people who actually voted for it. These countries are bringing down the shutter on world trade. The US is heading the same way, and also likely to veto the TPA (which perhaps is a good thing for NZ due to the lack of benefits), because they don't think they are getting a good deal out of it. I see many NZ stocks fell significantly today as a result. I expect carnage next week. I have read that this will likely cause the UK now to go into a recession, and they have a significant amount of debt. It may have a knock on effect and cause a global recessions, and cause the Auckland housing bubble to finally burst.

There was a high voter turn out with over 70% voting. You are assuming that most of those who didn't vote would vote to stay. However extrapolating the voter in the Referendum it is fair to say that the result would remain with a 100% turn out.

The currency will come back especially with profit takers selling their newly purchased currency. The Japanese will move to lower the Yen and the Pound will recover but not to the the pre-vote levels, which is not a bad thing for the UK as exports will net more revenue.

Any changes are at least 2 years away if Chapter 50 was invoked immediately, this may not be done until the new year meaning there is probably a 2.5 year lead in more than enough time to adjust.

As for the Auckland bubble burst? the prices are not been driven from Europe they are being driven from closer to home. There maybe a small rise in interest rates but given our major markets are closer to home we are probably in a good position, after all the GFC only gave us a speed wobble.

That is all possibly true, but the markets aren't logical. Britain also has huge problem with debt , and the UK pound is now the weakest since 1985, and that isn't necessarily linked to BREXIT, as this result has only just come through during the night. Especially as it wasn't really expected that BREXIT would occur. It was expected to be close. It is an extreme right wing thing to happen. A world with Trump and Boris as leaders will be a scarey place if that occurs. Cameron really has to go now based on this.

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#1579725 24-Jun-2016 18:20

Given how shallow the thinking of the voters in the UK, this probably would have seen the vote to remain at closer to 70%

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501119&objectid=11662693

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#1579726 24-Jun-2016 18:25

networkn:

eracode:

networkn:

Didn't Cameron come out and say a few days/weeks ago, that unless the margin was significant he would block it?

I can't really understand how a 3% winning margin could be grounds for what is potentially about to occur? I would have thought something as major as this should require 65% (or say 2/3 in favour) or default to stay.

It's a non binding referndum anyways right?

He did say that and it is non-binding - but it would be 'monumentally stupid' as mikeB4 says. This is all incredibly fascinating but would be even more interesting if Cameron tried that.

Why would it be monumentally stupid?

Tens of millions of voters have expressed their wish and, although it's sort of close, there is a clear result with no margin of error in large actual numbers. It would be stupid of Cameron personally and bad for the country as a whole if he tried to tough it out.

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