Brexit means Brexit? Not as clear cut now.

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KrazyKid

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#205225 4-Nov-2016 10:44

With the overnight court ruling that the UK parliament must legislate to enact article 50 and leave the EU we are in for more uncertain times in the next few months.

What will May and the UK government do?
I can't see them winning the appeal.
So do they have the numbers to call a vote in the Commons AND Lords (as it probably must pass both)? - 2/3 of MPs are remainers.
Will the MPs vote against the clear (buy small) majority in the referendum?

I predict lots of confusion and then it being resolved mid year with a general election.
Glad I've got a good popcorn supply on hand :)

sbiddle

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#1663609 4-Nov-2016 11:06

It's going to be very interesting!

Fred99

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#1663610 4-Nov-2016 11:06

I expect the aftermath of whatever happens in the US election next week could have a large impact on sentiment in the UK, but not sure how that would work in favour of or against Brexit.

Popcorn is needed all right. Democracy seems to be in a bit of trouble at the moment.

TwoSeven

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#1663941 4-Nov-2016 19:00

KrazyKid:
With the overnight court ruling that the UK parliament must legislate to enact article 50 and leave the EU we are in for more uncertain times in the next few months.

The court said that the uk parliament is sovereign and can make and unmake any law it chooses and this has been so for hundreds of years.

It also said that the goverment of the day cannot override the sovereignty of parliament.

The government contends that if notice article 50 is given, then all laws enacted in 1972 cease (hard brexit). The court says the government does not have the authority to give such notice and only parliament does (it has to make a new act of parliament which the government must follow) which means it will try for a soft brexit.

I think in any case brexit has to occur because of the referendum, but whether it is a hard or soft brexit I think is to be determined.

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Geektastic

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#1663945 4-Nov-2016 19:14

It does not need to "pass" the Lords: the Lords are a revising chamber and cannot do more than comment on and suggest amendments to legislation.

It's an interesting debate because

1) Parliament is elected to represent the people

2) In this case, the people chose to decide the matter directly rather than leave it to their representatives - and MP's presumably voted in the referendum, so had a say

3) Ergo, what value does parliament offer here?

KrazyKid

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#1664011 4-Nov-2016 21:52

The issue seems to date back to when the crown ("the executive") could by-pass parliament.
Parliament got a bunch of rights to have the final say in passing laws in the country.

The current executive is now changing domestic laws without consulting parliament.
There should be (must be?) a session of parliament to pass result of the referendum into law through parliament.

I think the above is a roughly correct summary of the situation.
I'm just not sure if a Hard Brexit law will pass through parliament.
The MPs generally are against Brexit but the referendum was for it.

I don't think May will get the numbers for a Hard Brexit and the people want a Hard Brexit.

Hence a general election.

Geektastic

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#1664047 4-Nov-2016 22:52

Would be interesting if she, as PM, wrote a letter invoking Article 50 on behalf of the UK.

Not quite sure what would happen then...!

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KrazyKid

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#1664059 4-Nov-2016 23:19

That would be interesting.
I think they would decline to accept it.
Maybe until the European Courts ruled on it?
Or insist that the UK parliament formally agree.

After all they are against Brexit as well.

However I don't think May would put them in that position.
She would not be that stupid.

Geektastic

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#1664063 4-Nov-2016 23:22

Bet she wishes she'd done that last week now...!