Changes in timing of seasons.

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gzt

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#208111 27-Jan-2017 09:18

For a few years I've been hearing that the timing of the seasons (in NZ) has changed. Anyway, you know how people tend to go on about the weather.

Is there any evidence for this? Overlay graphs and things would be good. ; ).

I don't particularly want this to become a climate change slanging match but it kind of seems inevitable. Anyway if we could stick to the topic a bit before we get to that part...

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#1710469 27-Jan-2017 09:44

No evidence at all, but I tend to work through Dec/Jan, and find that Feb/Mar are nicer times for a break, weather and crowds tend to be better then. Evidence from 'weather experts' would be interesting.

TwoSeven

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#1710749 27-Jan-2017 16:53

I wouldnt expect the seasons to change unless the earth changed its orbit.

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#1710755 27-Jan-2017 17:18

Climate change means the old rules are becoming obsolete. The seasons are going to be different as the climate change intensifies especially the changes to the oceans. We cannot expect to have what we had 10 years ago.

gzt

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#1710782 27-Jan-2017 18:16

Yeah personally I think that's likely. Before we get to the general issues I'd like to try and quantify this seasonal change thing people talk about.

I suspect the answer is not entirely as simple as, it's warmer for longer. Edit: if that's true

Because that's an average, and it's entirely possible there are lower temperatures as part of the higher average.

I kind of thought this was general knowledge and I had missed something. But it looks like there is no quick answer or graphical representation and if nothing comes up here I may have to do some research and return.

ANglEAUT

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#1710806 27-Jan-2017 19:27

I grew up with August winds heralding the spring in September.

Those winds now seem to occur late Sep, early Oct now.

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gzt

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#1710816 27-Jan-2017 19:55

Here's the kind of thing I'm hearing:

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11787973:

WeatherWatch's Philip Duncan described our current summer holiday timing as "bizarre". He said the past five years had seen summer shift back by about a month. "We should push [the holidays] out to mid-January and February. That's when the driest, hottest, weather of the year is.

The article has a lot quotes from a lot of people. Duncan is the only weather guy quoted. I'm not sure if he's a weather scientist strictly speaking. Later on it quotes a metservice average for December as being 1c lower, but that's all.

I'm not in any way disputing the general tone of it, I'm thinking yeah ok that could be true etc, although I'm undecided on the holidays aspect of it. I'd just like to get some more about it with a few more data points identified...

Goosey

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#1710869 27-Jan-2017 21:43

So...

The equinoxes, along with solstices, are directly related to the seasons of the year.

Southern Hemisphere Summer Solstice

(Australia, New Zealand, South America, Southern Africa)

December Solstice in Auckland, New Zealand is on
Friday, 22 December 2017 at 5:28 a.m. NZDT

Equinoxes and solstices from 2000–2049

First Day of Summer?

The first day of spring, summer, fall and winter can either be defined using astronomical events like solstices and equinoxes, or they can be determined based on meteorological factors, average temperatures.

In the USA and some other areas in the Northern Hemisphere, the Summer Solstice marks the first day of summer. However, the official date for the first day of summer varies depending on the country's climate.

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Goosey

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#1710870 27-Jan-2017 21:45

...therefore summer started about December 20th 2016. A season is about 3 months so "peek summer" would then start Jan 20.

Summer has only just begun! (and so on and so forth woth Autumn, Winter and Spring where Winter "Peek Winter commences fron June 20th ish".

gzt

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#1710907 27-Jan-2017 22:50

Yeah exactly on a pedantic level the timing of the seasons does not change. This is not what people talk about when they say winter is late/early this year etc. It's pretty obvious that's no way to measure temperature and rain. Anyway, found some temperature data:

https://www.niwa.co.nz/education-and-training/schools/resources/climate/meanairtemp

Where's Fred99? @Fred99 hey did you use up all your graphs in the Trump thread? ; ).

k1wi

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#1710925 28-Jan-2017 04:46

There must be a lot of factors that influence the 'perception' of summer. Global warming, climate oscillations such as El Niño, variations in 'normal' weather events - such as the presence/string of blocking high(s) setting up North of the country. You'd probably need data/graphs going back decades to avoid many of these. Positive retrospection is also a huge cognitive problem, so good to emphasise the data side.

tdgeek

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#1710941 28-Jan-2017 08:41

Goosey:

So...

The equinoxes, along with solstices, are directly related to the seasons of the year.

Southern Hemisphere Summer Solstice

(Australia, New Zealand, South America, Southern Africa)

December Solstice in Auckland, New Zealand is on
Friday, 22 December 2017 at 5:28 a.m. NZDT

Equinoxes and solstices from 2000–2049
First Day of Summer?

The first day of spring, summer, fall and winter can either be defined using astronomical events like solstices and equinoxes, or they can be determined based on meteorological factors, average temperatures.

In the USA and some other areas in the Northern Hemisphere, the Summer Solstice marks the first day of summer. However, the official date for the first day of summer varies depending on the country's climate.

The equinoxes and solstices's aren't set by seasons they are set by orbit and tilt. Depends how you quantify a season. The thread implies are our seasons changing, implying the weather conditions. Short term thats natural events such as El Nino, La Nina, longer term, climate change.

When I was a kid in ChCh, summer included one very high 30's day, many 30's days, all the rest were 28 and the two week couple of days of rain. Anecdotal.

Now, we get the rare day in low low 30's. Many days in mid 20's with a few in the high 20's. Many days that are cooler, cloudier, wetter.

Winter used to be many many days of hard frosts. Now it's less days of less harsh frosts. Back then snow didn't exist except for one or two slush events, now we can easily get a big snowfall in any given year.

But, the technical seasons haven't changed as the orbit and tilt haven't changed, or if they have, extremely minimally.

nickb800

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#1710950 28-Jan-2017 09:10

Should be easy enough to churn out some overlay graphs in excel with data from cliflo. I can't be bothered doing it myself right now, but here's the link

https://cliflo.niwa.co.nz/

Dratsab

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#1710953 28-Jan-2017 09:24

Goosey: ...therefore summer started about December 20th 2016. A season is about 3 months so "peek summer" would then start Jan 20.

Summer has only just begun! (and so on and so forth woth Autumn, Winter and Spring where Winter "Peek Winter commences fron June 20th ish".

Factoring in climate change, I can see this being a conversation that repeats every few years - if we survive

Goosey

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#1710958 28-Jan-2017 10:02

Dratsab:

Goosey: ...therefore summer started about December 20th 2016. A season is about 3 months so "peek summer" would then start Jan 20.

Summer has only just begun! (and so on and so forth woth Autumn, Winter and Spring where Winter "Peek Winter commences fron June 20th ish".

Factoring in climate change, I can see this being a conversation that repeats every few years - if we survive

Indeed, but isnt the climate ultimatley driven by the moon and sun orbiting around the earth?

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#1710959 28-Jan-2017 10:30

Then again our current weather conditions could be influenced by the temperature of the Coral Sea, which affects the position of the jetstreams that sit over the Tasman, which in turn affects the position of the traveling highs. Because they have been further north than normal, the sou'westers that would normally be pushed south of NZ are, instead, sitting across the South Island particularly.
The temperature of the Coral Sea is influenced by the Humboldt Current, the major driver of the La Nina/El Nino weather cycles.

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