Hurricane Florence

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kingdragonfly

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#240537 12-Sep-2018 19:24

I don't know if the satellite technology has changed, but the NOAA videos of Hurricane Florence are breath-taking.

I'm not sure if it's because the hurricane is so large, but the details of the swirling vortex make it look more menacing to me than previous hurricanes.

I'm glad I'm on the other side of the world from this one.

Perhaps because this hurricane could affect Trump's personal real estate holdings, he seems to be taking it seriously.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/spaghetti-models-hurricane-track-forecast-2018-9?r=US&IR=T

"'Spaghetti models' show potential paths for storms like Hurricane Florence — here's what they mean"

* Three hurricanes are churning through the Atlantic, including Hurricane Florence, which threatens North and South Carolina.

* Many people are seeking out long-term forecasts for the storm, but you should be cautious about using “spaghetti models” to predict where a storm is going to travel.

* These plots are useful tools for meteorologists when they are building forecasts, but they aren’t forecasts themselves. Here’s what they mean.

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#2089524 12-Sep-2018 19:34

https://www.axios.com/hurricane-florence-storm-threat-north-carolina-e81f5cef-8ffd-4a59-8df8-0c62bb54bf37.html

"Go deeper: Hurricane Florence is a storm threat unlike any other"

"Hurricane Florence is a nightmare storm for the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. The reasons stem from the hurricane's power, size, forward speed and the longstanding vulnerability of the area it is forecast to hit.

The big picture: There are no historical analogs to compare Florence to. Its forecast track is unprecedented, and its array and magnitude of threats are as well.

The context: If Hurricane Florence makes landfall in North Carolina (north of the border area with South Carolina, where Hurricane Hazel hit in 1954) or Virginia as a Category 4 storm, it would be the strongest storm to do so that far north."

kingdragonfly

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#2089694 13-Sep-2018 08:34

Trump has the words, the best words. Who knew a hurricane was "tremendously wet"? I guess he learned that when literally handing out paper towels in Puerto Rico, during a photo opportunity.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6158817/Trump-says-Hurricane-Florence-tremendously-big-tremendously-wet.html

Trump says Hurricane Florence will be 'tremendously big and tremendously wet' - as he's savaged for claiming Maria response in Puerto Rico was an 'unsung success' despite death toll rising to 2,975

* President Trump spoke out about the dangers of Hurricane Maria on Tuesday

* He said Category 4 storm will be 'tremendously big and tremendously wet'

* President added that response to Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico was an 'unsung success', despite almost 3,000 people being killed

* San Juan mayor Carmen Yulín Cruz hit out at remark, saying: 'God help us all.'

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#2089761 13-Sep-2018 10:00

'tremendously big and tremendously wet'

behold, the President of the United States!

oh dear, can't stop laughing!

Fred99

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#2089789 13-Sep-2018 10:21

There's also "super typhoon" Mangkhut, which is packing stronger winds than Florence - predicted path sweeping across the Northern Philippines on Saturday, then heading toward Hong Kong.

Probably going to do more damage and much a greater risk to life than Florence, but in a US-centric world, it's not such big news.

155 knot sustained winds - with gusts to 190 knots! (that's about 220mph / 350 kmh).

frankv

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#2089918 13-Sep-2018 11:40

I was in South Carolina April last year, and saw some of the damage done by Hurricane Matthew in Oct 2016 at Edisto Beach. Six months after the event, there were still heaps of sand metres high alongside the roads, and in some cases still partially across the roads. Almost all buildings in the area are built on top of 3-metre-high stilts. Charleston SC has big cisterns underground to temporarily hold rainwater so it can be pumped away later.

The whole area is flat as a pancake; the highest points for hundreds of miles are the bridges. So a storm surge will inundate large areas, and heavy rain simply doesn't drain away, especially in conjunction with a storm surge. There is also the problem of sewage facilities getting flooded and polluting water supplies.

Florence's effects will be felt for a long time.

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#2089981 13-Sep-2018 12:48

It's a Cat3 Hurricane as I understand it. Whilst I do understand that is still a ferocious storm, it hardly seems to compare to Cat5 Hurricanes no matter what?

I guess it's really bad because this area doesn't normally get hit?

frankv

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#2089993 13-Sep-2018 13:18

networkn:

It's a Cat3 Hurricane as I understand it. Whilst I do understand that is still a ferocious storm, it hardly seems to compare to Cat5 Hurricanes no matter what?

I guess it's really bad because this area doesn't normally get hit?

Hardly. Every couple of years a largish hurricane hits that area.

I think it's because this one is outside the meteorologists' models. I think it went down to a 3 from a 5, but that it's expected to grow again.

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afe66

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#2090098 13-Sep-2018 14:27

Its important because is America of course.

But dont blame climate change..

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/sep/12/north-carolina-didnt-like-science-on-sea-levels-so-passed-a-law-against-it

kingdragonfly

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#2090104 13-Sep-2018 14:35

Documents suggest Trump administration moved $10 million from the Federal Emergency Management Agency, FEMA, to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, ICE, during the summer, just before hurricane season.

The Senator seems to be saying most of the money taken away from emergency preparation was mostly funding seperation of children from immigrants.

Jeff Merkley: FEMA funding ICE an 'evil partnership'

kingdragonfly

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#2090418 14-Sep-2018 06:58

https://weather.com/safety/hurricane/news/2018-09-12-hurricane-florence-why-it-will-stall-move-slowly

Why Hurricane Florence Will Stall or Move Erratically

It's another agonizingly slow-moving hurricane. Here's why that will happen.

----------------------------

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/slow-moving-tropical-storms-hurricanes-dangerous

Three Reasons Slow-Moving Tropical Storms and Hurricanes Are the Worst

Several threats are amplified when a tropical storm or hurricane moves slowly.

tdgeek

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#2090422 14-Sep-2018 07:31

The new norm. Thanks to climate change and warmer waters, these big ones will be normal ones, and more of them. The models don't allow for that, so its reasonable that they are seeing behaviours outside of historical records. Down here we will get typhoons that are closer, with the subsequent weather hitting the N.I

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#2090443 14-Sep-2018 08:36

tdgeek:
The new norm. Thanks to climate change and warmer waters, these big ones will be normal ones, and more of them. The models don't allow for that, so its reasonable that they are seeing behaviours outside of historical records. Down here we will get typhoons that are closer, with the subsequent weather hitting the N.I

That will be truly incredible since typhoons are a northern hemisphere phenomenon. I think you mean a tropical cyclone.

“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996

tdgeek

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#2090450 14-Sep-2018 09:01

Dingbatt:
tdgeek:

The new norm. Thanks to climate change and warmer waters, these big ones will be normal ones, and more of them. The models don't allow for that, so its reasonable that they are seeing behaviours outside of historical records. Down here we will get typhoons that are closer, with the subsequent weather hitting the N.I

That will be truly incredible since typhoons are a northern hemisphere phenomenon. I think you mean a tropical cyclone.

My mistake, Hurricanes are Northern Hemisphere, Typhoons are the same but for NW Northern Hemisphere, and Cyclones are the same but for Southern Hemisphere? I thought typhoon was just another name for a hurricane

Yes, if that happened, truly incredible.

ResponseMediaNZ

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#2090470 14-Sep-2018 09:33

Dingbatt:
tdgeek:

The new norm. Thanks to climate change and warmer waters, these big ones will be normal ones, and more of them. The models don't allow for that, so its reasonable that they are seeing behaviours outside of historical records. Down here we will get typhoons that are closer, with the subsequent weather hitting the N.I

That will be truly incredible since typhoons are a northern hemisphere phenomenon. I think you mean a tropical cyclone.

Hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons are all tropical storms. They are all the same thing but are given different names depending on where they appear.
When they reach populated areas they usually bring very strong winds and rain which can cause a lot of damage.

Hurricanes are tropical storms that form over the North Atlantic Ocean and Northeast Pacific.

Cyclones are formed over the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.

Typhoons are formed over the Northwest Pacific Ocean.

Also here's the last 51 Hurricane Seasons - Lets put this in to context. Yes we are getting "more" weather events but we also have short memories oh and better technology at working out what weather events are doing these days. but overall there is not much of an increase its pretty static in the states.

(2017 Data)

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted this year’s hurricane season would be more active than average (based on data from 1981-2010). It’s hard, however, to put the number of storms per year in context. Not all hurricanes or storms hit land, and the ones that do cause varying levels of damage.

kingdragonfly

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#2090985 15-Sep-2018 10:15

At 10 am Saturday NZ time

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-09-14-hurricane-florence-north-carolina-impacts

"Hurricane Florence Strikes North Carolina: 5 Killed, Dozens Awaiting Rescue, 635,000 Without Power"

Hurricane Florence has knocked out power to more than 635,000 homes and businesses statewide.

Authorities have confirmed four deaths from the impacts of the storm.
Some 120 people stranded in storm surge were awaiting rescue in New Bern Friday morning.

About 12,000 people are in 126 evacuation shelters, state officials said.

50 cm of rain so far, with 76 more expected. Possibly over 1 meter rain in some places.

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