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8971 posts

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# 260132 12-Nov-2019 12:51
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I got back from NSW on Sunday.  I've never seen it so dry, stayed in the bush in the Hunter region now under "catastrophic" warning, it actually rained there last Saturday week night, 25mm in that area - but I dropped back in there 6 days later and it was bone dry again, there's no water in any of the creeks, the ponds are dry, it had already been stinking hot, high 30s most days.  The ground in the bush is crunchy underfoot. Have friends living in the bush there, down about 20km of dirt road through the bush, then along fire access trails to the house, off the grid.  Had a slightly nervous night on Friday with the smell of smoke in the air, I'm really worried about them today, they don't want to evacuate, they're on RFS call-up. 

 

Based on forecasts, the next 6 hours or so are critical.

 

Below is a photo that's been posted widely on the internet.  This is Crowdy Bay national park about 1/2 way between Port Macquarie and Nelson Bay.  At the end of the beach is a conservation department campground (Diamond Head).  Stayed there at exactly this time of year a couple of years back.  

 


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  # 2352200 12-Nov-2019 13:13
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As it stands I don't think there's any hope for Australia until it is too late. The Liberal & National Parties have always been climate change deniers - as are their core voters - but now they're trotting out the same milquetoast weak-ass deflections as the US government does every time there's a mass shooting: 'Now is not the time to talk about gun control, think of the victims of the shooting!' 'Now is not the time to talk about climate change, think about the victims of the fire!'

 

I shake my head every time I think about it. When I was in high school in 1993, we once - once! - measured the courtyard at 42C. That was remarkable. In the last couple of years, they've had multiple whole weeks where the temperature has hit 49+C. That change has happened in just my own adult lifetime. And yet enough Australians can't or won't see it or any other evidence that's literally burning their noses off that the LNP won in a landslide last election.

 

I think I got out just in time.

 

 





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  # 2352240 12-Nov-2019 13:29
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Fred99:

 

... they don't want to evacuate, they're on RFS call-up...

 

 

I don't fully understand what RFS call-up means and whether that's their reason for not wanting to evacuate.  I guess no-one ever really wants to evacuate.  However, I do struggle with why people stay put when their, and their loved ones', lives are in possible danger.  I think I'd be out of there as quick as anyone..........

 

....... easy for me to say. though.  I'm fortunate that I have never found myself in that situation so in reality my reaction could be different.

 

My thoughts are with your friends and everyone affected.

 

 

 

 





"I have noticed even people who claim everything is predestined, and that we can do nothing to change it, look before they cross the road." -  Stephen Hawking


 
 
 
 




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  # 2352243 12-Nov-2019 13:30
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The higher temperatures and reduced rainfall on the E coast were long forecast as a consequence of predicted climate change (as opposed to general "global warming").  Was talking to some elderly locals in the Hunter the other day who'd lived there >60 years, they've never recalled it being so dry, official records confirm it never has been since records began.

 

I'm a little surprised that the govt has suggested that downtown urban greenies are the only ones who think that this situation may be contributed to by climate change. None of the country folk I spoke with over the past couple of weeks seem have any doubt. 

 

If NSW hopefully survives today without major disaster, there's 6 months of probably worse conditions yet to come. 




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  # 2352248 12-Nov-2019 13:41
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floydbloke:

 

I don't fully understand what RFS call-up means and whether that's their reason for not wanting to evacuate. 

 

 

Rural Fire Service volunteers "on call". They're trained and know a hell of a lot more than me, but OTOH I'd be out of there anyway - it scared the bejesus out of me just being there the other day and smelling and seeing smoke in the air, constantly checking RFS maps/warnings, jumping when a cellphone notification beeped. (no cellular access - wifi via a satellite link).


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  # 2352265 12-Nov-2019 13:57
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Australia has been ~10 years since the end of the almost decade long "millennium" drought in the early 2000s and I suspect many people have forgotten how dry it was then......

 

When the drought broke there were a number of huge desal projects partially completed that have been sitting either mothballed, or at minimum capacity,

 

It was interesting that in Jan 2019, they began the 3-4 month task of bringing the Sydney plant back on line.......

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-27/sydney-desalination-plant-turned-on-so-how-does-it-work/10753334

 

( the only problem is that they consume vast amounts of coal powered electricity)

 

 

 

While NZ faces the task of retreating from sea level rise, Australia must surely be looking at de populating many of these country bush areas and looking at clustering those in the rural areas in much more defendable locations,


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  # 2352270 12-Nov-2019 14:02
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floydbloke:

 

Fred99:

 

... they don't want to evacuate, they're on RFS call-up...

 

 

I don't fully understand what RFS call-up means and whether that's their reason for not wanting to evacuate.  I guess no-one ever really wants to evacuate.  However, I do struggle with why people stay put when their, and their loved ones', lives are in possible danger.  I think I'd be out of there as quick as anyone..........

 

....... easy for me to say. though.  I'm fortunate that I have never found myself in that situation so in reality my reaction could be different.

 

My thoughts are with your friends and everyone affected.

 

 

The scenario is along the lines of you've got 15 minutes to leave and whatever you leave behind, you most likely will never see again.  You lose the house, the contents, the property could become uninhabitable to the point where even rebuilding isn't an option.  Yeah, it would be hard knowing that you can only take what you can grab on the run.
I guess most would want to stay until the absolute last minute possible in case they don't end up having to leave.

 

A semi quote from one of the fire officials was that if someone came to him with the scenario as it currently stands and suggested they role play it for training, he'd have suggested that they picked something more realistic.  Kinda tells you the scale of what they are dealing with.





 
 
 
 




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  # 2352271 12-Nov-2019 14:03
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wratterus:

 

https://myfirewatch.landgate.wa.gov.au/#

 

 

 

 

NSW RFS site: https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/

 

There's also a BOM hi res satellite feed here: http://satview.bom.gov.au/

 

 




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  # 2352273 12-Nov-2019 14:13
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geoffwnz:

 

The scenario is along the lines of you've got 15 minutes to leave and whatever you leave behind, you most likely will never see again.  You lose the house, the contents, the property could become uninhabitable to the point where even rebuilding isn't an option.  Yeah, it would be hard knowing that you can only take what you can grab on the run.
I guess most would want to stay until the absolute last minute possible in case they don't end up having to leave.

 

 

And the problem is if you leave it too late.  This the latest from RFS for the one area at the moment with "red alert" status. (earlier last week there were 17 red alerts at one time, today could be worse):

 

 

Advice

 

If you are in the Nowendoc and Mount George area, you at risk.

 

It is too late to leave.

 

Seek shelter as the fire approaches. Protect yourself from the heat of the fire.

 

 

So you need a "plan B" - and there's no way to test it beforehand.


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Ultimate Geek


  # 2352280 12-Nov-2019 14:19
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Fred99:

 

geoffwnz:

 

The scenario is along the lines of you've got 15 minutes to leave and whatever you leave behind, you most likely will never see again.  You lose the house, the contents, the property could become uninhabitable to the point where even rebuilding isn't an option.  Yeah, it would be hard knowing that you can only take what you can grab on the run.
I guess most would want to stay until the absolute last minute possible in case they don't end up having to leave.

 

 

And the problem is if you leave it too late.  This the latest from RFS for the one area at the moment with "red alert" status. (earlier last week there were 17 red alerts at one time, today could be worse):

 

 

Advice

 

If you are in the Nowendoc and Mount George area, you at risk.

 

It is too late to leave.

 

Seek shelter as the fire approaches. Protect yourself from the heat of the fire.

 

 

So you need a "plan B" - and there's no way to test it beforehand.

 

 

I have no words in response to that scenario.  :-(

 

Anyone stuck in that situation is in need of a miracle.





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  # 2352298 12-Nov-2019 14:48
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geoffwnz:

 

I have no words in response to that scenario.  :-(

 

Anyone stuck in that situation is in need of a miracle.

 

 

 

 

Indeed. I remember a few years back some fire fighters died when their truck wouldn't start. They'd been issued a petrol-fueled vehicle and the fuel had all vapourised in the heat. Fuel pumps don't pump vapour. Normally the fire trucks are diesel for that reason.





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Ultimate Geek


  # 2352299 12-Nov-2019 14:49
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SaltyNZ:

 

As it stands I don't think there's any hope for Australia until it is too late. The Liberal & National Parties have always been climate change deniers - as are their core voters - but now they're trotting out the same milquetoast weak-ass deflections as the US government does every time there's a mass shooting: 'Now is not the time to talk about gun control, think of the victims of the shooting!' 'Now is not the time to talk about climate change, think about the victims of the fire!'

 

 

Scott Morrison even trotted out the same "Thoughts and Prayers" empty platitude during a press conference earlier this week.




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  # 2352331 12-Nov-2019 15:32
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  # 2352340 12-Nov-2019 15:53
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The amount of people online complaining about the AU govt couldve stopped the fires etc with climate BS, how about get out there and help where you can to stop the current ones ? Or else wont be anything left to argue about........

 

 





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  # 2352367 12-Nov-2019 16:34
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Well that got ugly pretty quick.....

 

"In an interview with The Australian, Mr Joyce said the Greens had increased the bushfire threat because of the party’s opposition to hazard reduction burns, particularly in national parks.

 

“The problems we have got have been created by the Greens,” Mr Joyce said.

 

“We haven’t had the capacity to easily access (hazard) reduction burns because of all of the paperwork that is part of green policy.

 

“We don’t have access to dams because they have been decommissioned on national parks because of green policy.”

 

He added

 

“I acknowledge that the two people who died were most likely people who voted for the Green party, so I am not going to start attacking them. That’s the last thing I want to do,” Mr Joyce said.

 

Gotta love Australian politicans " I am not going to start attacking them". but, i'll do it anyway and call them likely Green voters....

 

 

 

 


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