Crystal ball for install footprint of extended rural fibre coverage?

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rhy7s

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#320052 1-Jul-2025 11:43

As per https://company.chorus.co.nz/media/releases/fibre-for-95-of-kiwis-chorus-proposal-endorsed-as-national-priority - does anyone have an educated guess on when we might see the plans for areas this extension will roll out to? I'm imagining our area still won't be covered but I'm in the process of planning a 2-3km link from one our hills across the harbour so would like to save the expense and time of putting that in if we have a chance of hooking up directly.

quickymart

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#3388760 1-Jul-2025 18:45

I'd love to see a map or something, too.

MichaelNZ

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#3388777 1-Jul-2025 19:05

Its just speculation at this stage but good on Chorus for being more ambitious.

While I work in the industry I have no special information in regards to their plans. So this is just my opinion based on a combination of observation and reading the tea leaves.

In order I think this is their likely strategy:

Fringe areas of towns and cities which have UFB especially where there are sizeable pockets of users on DSL
Towns and near-urban density communities which are fibre fed and have sufficient uptake of DSL services.

But will they be running fibre out into proper rural areas past farms? I think not anytime soon.

A couple of months ago they quietly withdrew "custom" installs which enabled individuals outside coverage areas to pay to connect. This was not cheap. Quotes rarely came in under $10k and the only examples I know of were people with immediate neighbours who were connected. In other words their neighbour was the last house who got a 'free' install and they missed out and had to pay. Or they were at an address which was not given a 'free' install due to being created after the rollout but UFB was available at their boundary. Think townhouses and subdivisions.

A more common cost was 5-figures and even 6-figures. This was where they had to extend existing network for a few hundred metres or even km's. Or there wasn't even UFB in the area and they needed to build exchange/cabinet capability from scratch.

But as of the end of May this is no longer available and has been replaced by community co-funded fibre builds where people have to rally at least 2 other neighbours to split costs with. The implication here is Chorus see viability as serving multiple addresses at once.

While they have done a great job at rolling out there is still plenty of room available. Kaiaua (South East of Auckland) is an example which comes to mind.

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quickymart

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#3388778 1-Jul-2025 19:23

Actually that place I would probably agree with you on, apparently (according to Wikipedia) that township has just over 500 people, so could be a good candidate for expansion.

MichaelNZ

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#3388780 1-Jul-2025 19:35

quickymart:

Actually that place I would probably agree with you on, apparently (according to Wikipedia) that township has just over 500 people, so could be a good candidate for expansion.

In favour it has the population and the density. Against - it has no DSL network.

Its my personal opinion Chorus will place priority on pockets of DSL subscribers because they definitely and officially want to rid themselves of copper

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Wheelbarrow01

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#3388845 2-Jul-2025 00:18

MichaelNZ:

A couple of months ago they quietly withdrew "custom" installs which enabled individuals outside coverage areas to pay to connect. This was not cheap. Quotes rarely came in under $10k and the only examples I know of were people with immediate neighbours who were connected. In other words their neighbour was the last house who got a 'free' install and they missed out and had to pay. Or they were at an address which was not given a 'free' install due to being created after the rollout but UFB was available at their boundary. Think townhouses and subdivisions.

A more common cost was 5-figures and even 6-figures. This was where they had to extend existing network for a few hundred metres or even km's. Or there wasn't even UFB in the area and they needed to build exchange/cabinet capability from scratch.

But as of the end of May this is no longer available and has been replaced by community co-funded fibre builds where people have to rally at least 2 other neighbours to split costs with. The implication here is Chorus see viability as serving multiple addresses at once.

This is more or less correct. Chorus no longer offers custom install quotes for residential customers on consumer grade plans. We ran the numbers and of the customers who accepted quotes, they were overwhelmingly business/enterprise customers on business grade plans. Each custom install quote comes with an out of pocket cost to Chorus for the design work (not to mention the internal and RSP FTE in handling each request), and the conversion rate for residential quotes was miniscule. In other words, we were spending a lot on enquiry handling and design work, but were not getting much return in the form of confirmed orders. I know of at least one RSP who felt the same and as a result they stopped offering to broker consumer quotes for their customers 3 or 4 years ago.

In my time at both an RSP and with Chorus, I have seen custom install quotes of all sizes - the smallest was a few thousand dollars, the biggest was a full 7 figures which was accepted by the large business that requested it. The biggest consumer/residential quote I personally brokered (and saw accepted) was over $100k but that was very much an exceptional case.

Retiring the custom install process for residential premises has allowed us to put more focus (and funding) into Community Builds. Yes, we do require a minimum of three interested parties (ie you and 2 of your neighbours) to proceed, but Chorus will now chip in $3500 per property towards the cost of getting fibre network to the boundary, plus the inside boundary work/materials is at Chorus' cost for up to 200 metres.

In terms of an extension to the UFB network, I don't believe we have progressed to the stage of having plans or areas mapped out yet, and I wouldn't expect that to happen until we know how it will be funded. All we know at this stage is that the Infrastructure Commission has endorsed the idea of extending fibre to 95% of the country as a project with strong potential for return on investment, however the absence of a governmental rural connectivity strategy needs to be addressed first.

If you're interested in hearing Anna Mitchell (Chorus GM for Frontier) speak on the matter, check out this Rova podcast from 2 days ago, hosted by Dominic George from Rural Exchange.

The views expressed by me are not necessarily those of my employer Chorus NZ Ltd

MikeFly

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#3388849 2-Jul-2025 04:27

@Wheelbarrow01 Great summation, thanks.

With the 200m at no cost, is that per property, so for example driveway, 1k long with 5 houses, no cost, like it was with the original rollout?

Linux

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#3388853 2-Jul-2025 06:45

The business I work for has taken up a number of Chorus custom quotes and accepted them for sites that were connected by DMR

One site is getting connected this week

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rhy7s

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#3389169 2-Jul-2025 21:21

Linux:

The business I work for has taken up a number of Chorus custom quotes and accepted them for sites that were connected by DMR

One site is getting connected this week

Is that for fibre connections downstream of the DMR link? Or putting in a fibre backhaul to their local exchange? (Our local school got a fibre connection to the tower fed by DMR, before the 40Mbps symmetrical profile was enabled it only pulled in a bit over 70Mbps so I'm not sure what the backhaul capacity is).

Linux

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#3389170 2-Jul-2025 21:29

rhy7s:

Linux:

The business I work for has taken up a number of Chorus custom quotes and accepted them for sites that were connected by DMR

One site is getting connected this week

Is that for fibre connections downstream of the DMR link? Or putting in a fibre backhaul to their local exchange? (Our local school got a fibre connection to the tower fed by DMR, before the 40Mbps symmetrical profile was enabled it only pulled in a bit over 70Mbps so I'm not sure what the backhaul capacity is).

@rhy7s Fibre to the local exchange and then the Kordia DMR is the secondary / backup connection. Prior to the fibre install backup was 3G (not even 4G)

MichaelNZ

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#3389221 2-Jul-2025 22:21

MikeFly:

With the 200m at no cost, is that per property, so for example driveway, 1k long with 5 houses, no cost, like it was with the original rollout?

There are two relevant parts to the install.

Exchange or cabinet to the boundary
The boundary to the subscriber's building

Firstly, the fact a driveway is that long indicates its a very rural property. So part #1 will very likely be substantially expensive. To give you an idea from actual installs a 200 - 300m run in a rural area comes in around $12 - $20,000 ballpark. So the location you are describing could get very expensive.

Then there is part #2. I vaguely remember this was free to 100m, but I have just been advised its now 200m. In any case its not 1km. This distance is measured from the Chorus network on the street to the ONT.

And the last point - while not something you asked - is can this person get their neighbours to agree to spend this sort of money? Individual custom installs are no longer offered for Bitstream 2 services (ie: standard broadband) and while I understand Chorus rationale for this change, I am not clear anything other then government funded community wide rollouts offers a viable alternative to individual paid installs.

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Wheelbarrow01

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#3389274 2-Jul-2025 23:10

MikeFly:

@Wheelbarrow01 Great summation, thanks.

With the 200m at no cost, is that per property, so for example driveway, 1k long with 5 houses, no cost, like it was with the original rollout?

I started to answer this but quickly realised there are too many variables to provide a definitive answer - and my response got progressively longer as I thought up more scenarios and nuance so I pulled the handbrake. I think I know the answer in its simplest form but I'd rather double check with an expert in-house first before responding. Happy to park it and find out tomorrow for you.

I also realised that I don't know the answer to these posers - if there are 5 houses on a rural shared driveway, but only 3 commit to a community build, what happens? Does Chorus only build network for the 3 payers, or do we build/make allowance for all 5 but leave the 2 non-contributing addresses unable to order? If the latter, how can we reconcile and ensure equitable outcomes in consideration of what we are charging the 3 now vs what we might need to charge the other 2 later on if they change their minds? Can they even change their minds? Or can they only change their minds if there are at least 3 parties who didn't contribute the first time? What happens if one or more of the non-contributing parties sells and the new owner then wants to get fibre? I have posed so many questions to myself that I've now fallen down a rabbit hole of my own making.... This is the sort of hilarity that keeps my brain from shutting down at night when it's supposed to 😂

The views expressed by me are not necessarily those of my employer Chorus NZ Ltd

MikeFly

148 posts

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#3389345 3-Jul-2025 04:48

@Wheelbarrow01, @MichaelNZ

Thanks for the replies. I will go direct to Chorus with the tricky questions :)

They talk about 200m but not multiples of so maybe that's it.

All 5 properties are keen so that's a good start.

I will post back if I get a clarification.

Cheers