Video (streaming) to surpass P2P by year end

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Byrned

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#62537 9-Jun-2010 14:10

Interesting press release from Cisco on where they project global internet traffic will go.

http://newsroom.cisco.com/dlls/2010/prod_060210.html

So P2P is a problem now, but video is expected to exceed 91% of global consumer IP traffic by 2014! Glad I'm not in the business of having to prepare networks for that type of traffic. At least P2P can be spread over a 24hr period.

It was also interesting to read the IP traffic growth 2000 vs 2010 comparison.

vexxxboy

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#339821 9-Jun-2010 15:25

think they maybe right. i watch all tv now streamed 20 minutes after screening in the USA and i seldom use torrents and i think it will only become more popular as HD streaming becomes more common with faster connections ie fibre

Common sense is not as common as you think.

jonb

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#339840 9-Jun-2010 16:30

News like this should be a boost for attracting investors to the Pacific Fibre initiative..

cokeman2

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#339890 9-Jun-2010 18:34

yeah jonb fibers with caps , jeezs we cant even get a decent unlimited broadband plan (oh thats right its got canceled ) lol ......got access to hundreds of tv channels on the net , but with sad cap plans, speed throttling in NZ its just a big let down of the Internets here

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insane

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#340038 10-Jun-2010 01:26

I'd be quite surprised if video has not surpassed p2p already, although the lines of p2p and web traffic have been blurred somewhat with rapidshare/megaupload and all the secure connections being used these days.

Cymro

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#340144 10-Jun-2010 12:05

To be honest this is more of an argument for better national backbones and efficient dispersed caching/mirroring rather than International bandwidth.

Hmm, I wonder what products Cisco might sell to support that? ;)

Byrned

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#340159 10-Jun-2010 12:49

Well Cisco did announce recently that they will create 3000 new jobs in sales and new markets so yeah, good time to bring out this report to drive business - although I would expect those in the industry to already be thinking along these lines.

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Cymro

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#340190 10-Jun-2010 13:41

Byrned: Well Cisco did announce recently that they will create 3000 new jobs in sales and new markets so yeah, good time to bring out this report to drive business - although I would expect those in the industry to already be thinking along these lines.

Yep, it's always worthwhile looking at the sources of tech news stories to put them in context, just reading about it in a book atm which refers to it as "churnalism", basically rehashing press-releases and presenting them as "news", usually because the journo in question got a friendly call from a PR firm...

But anyhoo, the industry is already well on the way towards this, Akamai and to a lesser extent Limelight are already responsible for building dispersed caches in different regions and partnering with Telco's to reduce unnecessary backhaul.
For video take a look at the "iPlayer in a box" model being used in the UK, where because of the massive bandwidth used by the HD content they have partnered up with Alcatel to make a bespoke iPlayer cache that ISP's can buy. Oh, and there is the Terrabytes worth of Google Youtube Caches going in allover the world!

The next big problem is going to be the last mile when you have 300 people off an exchange or cabinet trying to watch a full HD IPTV solution, based on the Belgacom numbers I read it's about 8MBps per viewer...

Ideally you want to get the caches right out at the customer edge, but not sure we quite have the economies of scale here in NZ to make that work.

Byrned

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#340228 10-Jun-2010 14:51

I also think one of the next big problems is going to be dealing with live streaming video. You can't cache that one locally, so how do you do it?

There are already a few things that youtube already do live, such as IPL, speeches, debates, and its only a matter of time before it becomes something the public demand, or will go elsewhere for.

Actually, thinking about this, traditional TV stations must be shirting themselves with TV's now coming with youtube built in.

k1wi

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#340240 10-Jun-2010 15:18

Byrned: I also think one of the next big problems is going to be dealing with live streaming video. You can't cache that one locally, so how do you do it?

Live streaming is potentially easier, take a live youtube feed, you provide a single feed to your ISP's youtube cache and then broadcast it to customers. In much the same way as TV has done for decades :P

Ragnor

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#340259 10-Jun-2010 15:59

On-demand or time-shifted viewing is on a huge increase, I see that trend only increasing and live viewer-ship will actually start declining.

You might say news and sports are high demand for live, I'd say 99% of the news is not actually live footage and traditional sports viewship is actually in general decline (look at super 14, NRL, cricket for examples).

A huge number of people download tv content via torrent or rapidshare etc in NZ and AU, chiefly it's because of artifical regional delays and lack of decent on-demand options al la Hulu, Boxee, Netflcks etc.

TVNZ on demand and TV3's online services are good and foward thinking but are hamstrung by regional delays.

Basically live broadcast tv is a sunset industry imo.

insane

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#340479 10-Jun-2010 23:42

It would probably be of interest to get Sounddude to give us an idea of how effective their Orcon google cache is. I'm not sure if I'm allowed to share the numbers I've seen as I might still be under an NDA of sorts but the cache hit ratio is insanely high for a cache.

Caches and multicast traffic is the future :)