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freitasm

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#71598 13-Nov-2010 13:12
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Amdocs (NYSE: DOX), the leading provider of customer experience systems, today released the results of a survey that outlines the scale and significance of the data capacity crunch for mobile network service providers and their customers. The survey examined wireless service providers' strategies for coping with the increasing demand for data on their networks while maintaining acceptable service quality. Key findings include:

•Mobile networks are struggling to cope: More than 60 percent of wireless service providers interviewed are experiencing data congestion, with 20 percent registering severe overload at specific times. Service providers in the Middle East and Africa report that this overload poses serious consequences for their brand reputation and has led to an increase in customer complaints around service quality; Asian and American operators say it is contributing to churn.

•Data demand is driven by smartphones and laptops with mobile broadband: In the Americas and Europe smartphones are driving data demand, accounting for more than 40 percent of total data consumption. In Asia, the Middle East and Africa, laptops with mobile broadband is the key driver. A further factor fuelling demand is flat-rate data tariffs where "bandwidth hogs," although comprising only an estimated 2-3 percent of the customer base, are consuming approximately 30 percent of the network's capacity, contributing to further service degradation for the overall user base.

"Wireless service providers want to provide a good quality of service for customers, but the challenge they face is that they have been caught in a 'perfect storm' with data demand doubling year on year, yet revenues are static due to flat-rate pricing," said Teresa Cottam, research director of Telesperience, the firm that conducted the research. "By blindly throwing capacity at the problem, it becomes harder for operators to cope with data growth. A smarter approach to capacity management and network planning is needed for future success, with quality of service providing the competitive differentiator."

"The capacity crunch is not just a network problem, it's a widespread commercial and brand issue that wireless service providers need to address in the short and long term," said Rebecca Prudhomme, vice president of product and solutions marketing at Amdocs. "While service providers are adding extra capacity to their networks in the short term, they need to explore policy management solutions to enforce traffic flows and enable premium rate charging. But policy management on its own will not solve the problem. It's about combining policy with charging capabilities and network knowledge. Rigorous engineering of network capacity is critical to ensure customer experience is not compromised and that brand equity is protected."


All the bold are mine. But from this you can see that operators (not only mobile) from around the world seem to be preparing themselves for a big fight with consumers. It seems traffic management and differentiated charging will become commonplace. At least something you can say this is something New Zealand is ahead of the others...

And did you think "Internet Vampires" were a Telecom Big Time problem only?






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jtbthatsme
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  #404233 13-Nov-2010 14:37
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Although I am a proponent to higher data caps within NZ i would say the above is certainly something will impact heavily on (as you already stated) all ISP's eventually and for some it already does.

I think that caps and usage and/or speed management should be enforced not just thought about.

Personally i can use anywhere from 30 - 120 gig a month however 75 gig of this (or at least close to 75gig anyway) is offpeak I am not saying this helps the quality of service that is being provided.

Online gaming probably makes up about half of the peak hours for my usage as would it be the same for a lot of others online.

I believe that there is and until resolved a great need for more ways to get international traffic to NZ as I have commented on before the southern cross cable is just not up to speed and plus with another cable comes lower prices and true competition between isp's.

I know about now your wondering how this helps what Mauricio has talked about above. This is simple as the way I see it with the competition being in place it will provide a better way for ISP's to implement ways to help resolve the OP's above problem (at least in NZ).

As Mauricio stated with only a tiny fraction of people using about 30% of the network capacity it allows for individual ISP's to actually target and service the user base they would like to have. What i mean by this is that yeah some providers they may love the idea of charging $100 - $200 + on high usage all you can eat users whereas others get the chance/choice to tailor make packages that are more suited for low end users.

For the big users you could limit speeds as well and keep caps unlimited or maybe plans along the lines of 50 gig / 100 gig / 150 gig / 250gig. Which i feel are actually more realistic data amounts for this day and age for what some would call high usage customers.

Of course low end users are at times not the most profitable targets just like in any business it's about the upsell. By low end I mean people like my parents where 5 gig would be near impossible for them to use in a month and the speed could realistically be 512k / 256k (down / up) and that would suit probably more than a third of all users.



alliao
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  #404257 13-Nov-2010 16:23
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The fact is they would need to "fight" and competition will continue to offer flatrate plans to the best of their ability.

No fight occurs in NZ, and definitely no competition exists.

I don't own an ISP, nor do I care about their profit margin. I don't see the need to defend for commercial interests.

harrylin
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  #404267 13-Nov-2010 16:52
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Mauricio means "Wireless" network, not the broadband network. Broadband network should have high data cap or flat rate here in NZ. Because most countries have had that plan for years and years. But wireless networks are different story. We pay much higher prices for much lower data allowance in wireless 3G broadband. That's just not right. Teliasonera is way better.



freitasm

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  #404272 13-Nov-2010 17:07
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In this case I think the comments apply to both mobile and fixed line broadband in New Zealand.




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Regs
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  #404352 14-Nov-2010 00:05
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harrylin:Broadband network should have high data cap or flat rate here in NZ. Because most countries have had that plan for years and years.


given that there are nearly 200 countries in the world, how many do you think offer unlimited data or high data caps?  do some research before posting incorrect facts.  there are a ton of reasons why internet costs are higher in NZ - low population density combined with a 20,000km undersea fiber optic cable and high reliance of overseas content are typically the main ones.

in any case, no one has had hardly anything to do with the internet for 'years and years'.  its only really 20 years old and broadband has only really been around for probably half of that.




pieeta
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  #404372 14-Nov-2010 03:07
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Regs:
harrylin:Broadband network should have high data cap or flat rate here in NZ. Because most countries have had that plan for years and years.


given that there are nearly 200 countries in the world, how many do you think offer unlimited data or high data caps?  do some research before posting incorrect facts.  there are a ton of reasons why internet costs are higher in NZ - low population density combined with a 20,000km undersea fiber optic cable and high reliance of overseas content are typically the main ones.

in any case, no one has had hardly anything to do with the internet for 'years and years'.  its only really 20 years old and broadband has only really been around for probably half of that.


Out of the 33 OCED countries only NZ, Canada, Iceland, Belgium have a high percent (> 80%) of isp's imposing data caps.

Canada has a average cap of 75GB, Iceland 55GB, Australia 30GB, NZ 25GB, Belgium 20GB

This research was done in 2009 and doesnt include isps that have offpeak data usage plans.
Since then I think aussie has come out with better caps, as looking at the telstra website you can get 200GB for $70aud

http://www.oecd.org/document/54/0,3343,en_2649_34225_38690102_1_1_1_1,00.html





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StarBlazer
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  #404391 14-Nov-2010 08:59
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How about the ISPs offering a "scaled" service linked to the amount that is downloaded.  I know some ISPs already do this but throttle you back to dial-up sppeds as soon as you reach your cap, which is too slow for any modern website or reasonable use.

For example the first 5GB could be at full speed, the next 5GB is at 20% slower and so on.  Then the more you use, the slower it gets down to a minimum of 1M/s.

This way the highest users still don't need to worry about data caps - they will still get their stuff just slower and will give casual users (probably the majority of the population) a great experience. 

In the UK my sister-in-law has an account where she gets faster speeds during the day and goes slower at night and weekends!  Seems backwards, but for the domestic areas of the network this makes sense.




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alliao
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  #404407 14-Nov-2010 09:39
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Judging from NZ's usage, and argument of low usage users are "subsidising" high usage users, the logical step is actually lowering the price of low usage users.

For those using < 5GB, it should be in the range of dial up. And really is fair. Transfer the full cost to the high usage users, user pays. That way the low usage users will no longer be treated unfairly, and high usage users finds internet's true value in NZ.

Some numbers to consider from NBR.

2003 December 1.95USD/GB
2009 Price changes to 0.28USD/GB

Telecom who is a 50% owner of SCC have net income of $63M for 2010, $79M 2009 and $89M 2008.

freitasm

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  #405232 16-Nov-2010 11:09
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Some interesting points about broadband made by a Cisco report:


The average broadband connection generates 14.9 GB of Internet traffic per month, up from 11.4 GB per month last year, an increase of 31 percent1.

"Busy hour" traffic grew at a faster pace than average traffic, growing 41 percent since last year. Peak-hour Internet traffic is 72 percent higher than Internet traffic during an average hour. The ratio of the busy hour to the average hour increased from 1.59 to 1.72, globally.

Peer-to-peer (P2P) file sharing is now 25 percent of global broadband traffic, down from 38 percent last year, a decrease of 34 percent. While still growing in absolute terms, P2P is growing more slowly than visual networking and other advanced applications.

Peer-to-peer has been surpassed by online video as the largest category. The subset of video that includes streaming video, flash, and Internet TV represents 26 percent, compared to 25 percent for P2P.
Over one-third of the top 50 sites by volume are video sites. There is a high degree of diversity among the video sites in the top 50, including video viewed on gaming consoles, Internet TV, short-form user-generated video, commercial video downloads, and video distributed via content delivery networks (CDNs).

Video sites appeared more frequently than any other type of site in the top 50. Contrary to popular belief, none of the top 50 global web sites (by traffic volume) featured explicit adult content. This represents a shift in content compared to the composition of top global web sites two years ago.

Ten of the top 50 sites were associated with software updates and downloads (security and application enhancements). Voice and video communications traffic is now six times higher than data communications traffic (email, instant messaging, instant messaging file transfer).

Voice and video communications traffic (such as voice over IP [VoIP] and voice and video over instant messaging) has reached 2 percent of all traffic, up from less than 1 percent last year. Online video fluctuates more than file sharing traffic.

Online video's volatility (defined as the spread of traffic volume during the course of the day) is 51 percent higher than that of file sharing. The peak video hour is 91 percent higher than the average video hour, while the peak file sharing hour is 64 percent higher than the average file sharing hour. The top 1 percent of broadband connections is responsible for more than 20 percent of total Internet traffic.

The top 10 percent of connections is responsible for over 60 percent of broadband Internet traffic, worldwide.

In an average day, Internet "prime time" ranges from approximately 9 p.m. to 1 a.m. around the world. This contrasts to broadcast TV prime time, which is generally from 7 p.m. to 11 p.m. across most global markets.






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kyhwana2
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  #405235 16-Nov-2010 11:14
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jtbthatsme: 

I believe that there is and until resolved a great need for more ways to get international traffic to NZ as I have commented on before the southern cross cable is just not up to speed and plus with another cable comes lower prices and true competition between isp's.


It's not that the SXC isn't up to speed, it's that ISPs aren't buying enough capacity on it.
Not that international bandwidth is the only problem, it's also backhaul from the exchange to the ISPs. The ISPs can't/aren't buying enough backhaul. 0-64kbit/s? hah.
 

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