Does the iPhone mean the end of CDMA?

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thegeekboy

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#13456 10-May-2007 23:25

I've been reading a fair bit about the iPhone - which is funny because it's an unreleased product - and even when it IS released - it won't be here in NZ straight away.

It does have a lot of peoples attention though.

One piece of speculation was about the livelihood of CDMA.

Being that Apple have chosen to go with a GSM provider and generally kep all of their technology as simple as they can... If the iPhone gets significant traction, then every mobile operator is going to want a piece of the action.

Check out this fairly short piece:

http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/070510/35109_id.html?.v=1

What do you think?

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#70279 10-May-2007 23:42

With the data speeds the iPhone has on offer (EDGE, even more painful with GPRS fallback), I do not beleive this device (far from it actually) will be the downfall of CDMA.

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thegeekboy

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#70281 10-May-2007 23:47

That's true if the iPhone will only work on EDGE. That's the only real option that they have in the States through Cingular.

I believe that Apple plan a 3G version of the iPhone for Europe (and for here when it finally does).

That should make a bigger impact, I would think.

nzbnw

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#70285 11-May-2007 00:10

thegeekboy: That's true if the iPhone will only work on EDGE. That's the only real option that they have in the States through Cingular.

I believe that Apple plan a 3G version of the iPhone for Europe (and for here when it finally does).
That should make a bigger impact, I would think.

Perhaps but in no way the end of CDMA. The iPhone will not be a one size fits all product.

nzbnw

inquisitor

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#70289 11-May-2007 06:37

The iphone looks nice and maybe the operating system and the control of the iphone is quite innovative, but it won't start a revolution at all.It benefits from people's attention to the ipod and Apple's products in general and so is hyped.

A lot of features of the iphone (like the downloadable voicemail) require proprietary infrastructurewith the network operators, which will limit usability to those networks, that sign agreements with Apple. They aim to sell the iphoneexclusively throughonly onecooperating operator per country anyway.
In the US only Cingular customers will be able of purchasing the iphone and beyond that only with a 2-years-contract.
Apple planned such an exclusive distribution for Europe, too, but I doubt they'll actually do it, since there isn't any single operator, that covers all European countries.

Since the iphone will be capable of GSM only, only Vodafone could offer it in NZ. But if Vodafone won't become one of the exclusive distributors elsewhere in the world, I doubt they'll invest in the implementation of the mentioned infrastructure for you few people down there. The NZ market is just too small for such an effort.

Btw the iphone doesn't support 3G due to cost concerns and there won't be a 3G version in near future.

Keep in mind, that the iphone is Apple's first mobile phone and a lot of companies like Mitsubishi, LG or Pansonic had serious quality problems when entering the mobile phone market, allthough these companies had a lot of know how from other electronic devices. And do you remember the dying batteries of the first ipods, that couldn't be replaced?
Better wait before buying such an expensive experimental phone with so few features. I'd prefer a cheaper HTC P3600, that supports 3G and has a integrated GPS-receiver rather than an iphone.

However the iphone won't make Telecom switching to GSM or UMTS - that's absolutely ridiculous. Even if every New Zealanderbought an iphone that couldn't finance a GSM-migration.
Allthough most of the world - including some big US carriers - migrated from CDMA to GSM, I fear Telecom will keep CDMA as long as possible, since CDMA enables them of controlling the handset market, which bringsincome and further hinders people from quickly switching from one operator to another, as a new phone is required.

I hope for you, that a third entrant in the mobile market will roll out his network soon and so bring some competition and reasonable pricing to NZ.

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thegeekboy

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#70297 11-May-2007 07:39

Hey inquisitor - I don't understand the differences between GSM and CDMA technologies - and I haven't read up on it yet - but i understood that CDMA is a better technology, and GSM is more widespread.

Whether Vodafone take the iPhone on-board will become apparent very shortly - because this will be a decision that Vodafone in the UK will make first - adn then Germany etc... the infrastructure and support and expertise would then be passed to Aus and NZ in turn - that is one of Vodafones strengths.

But I don't believe that it is actually over-hyped. I'm willing to wait and see though. I wouldn't call it revolutionary - but I recognise that they are trying to make a phone that is far easier to use than anything else available.

I can't see Apple launching in Europe with an EDGE only phone. It will HAVE to be a 3G version. I'd like to believe that will be the near future - I'd be happy if you are wrong on that one.

AS for Telecoms network - I wasn't suggesting that they would change it because of the iPhone - but the article I mentioned made some interesting observations.

Despite this, Telecoms network will not be the sae in 2-3 years time from what I hear.

More competition in NZ would be great - but I can't see that happening any time soon.

I did actually own one of Panasonics first mobile phones - and it was a great little phone - I hear what you are saying though.

Thanks for your comments...

sbiddle

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#70300 11-May-2007 07:57

thegeekboy:

Whether Vodafone take the iPhone on-board will become apparent very shortly - because this will be a decision that Vodafone in the UK will make first - adn then Germany etc... the infrastructure and support and expertise would then be passed to Aus and NZ in turn - that is one of Vodafones strengths.

Why do you assume this?

alasta

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#70306 11-May-2007 08:30

From what I understand, the agreement between Cingular and Apple involves Apple taking a share of the ongoing subscriber revenue. I very much doubt that Vodafone would be comfortable in taking on a similar arrangement, and I also think that they would see the iPhone potentially starving them of Vodafone Live revenue.

It's very unlikely that we'll see the iPhone in New Zealand unless Telecom launches a UMTS network. I believe that this will happen eventually but it'll be at least a couple of years before they can have a UMTS network up and running.

Some would suggest that parallel importing an iPhone may be the answer, but with the handset so tightly tied to particular networks, I don't see parallel importers even being able to get their hands on them.

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Jama

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#70310 11-May-2007 08:52

The iPhone was also offered to Verizon the largest CDMA carrier in the US. Verizon turned it down and good on them. Why would you want to share revenue with Apple?

nzbnw

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#70312 11-May-2007 08:58

inquisitor: I fear Telecom will keep CDMA as long as possible, since CDMA enables them of controlling the handset market, which bringsincome and further hinders people from quickly switching from one operator to another, as a new phone is required.

All Telecom handsets are subsidized, so revenue from the purchase of a new phone is almost non existant.

nzbnw

inquisitor

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#70315 11-May-2007 09:08

nzbnw:

All Telecom handsets are subsidized, so revenue from the purchase of a new phone is almost non existant.

nzbnw

I guess, that applies to phones bought with a service contract, but what if you want a phone without contract?

nzbnw

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#70317 11-May-2007 09:12

inquisitor: I guess, that applies to phones bought with a service contract, but what if you want a phone without contract?

Even prepaid and open term contracts....

nzbnw

grant_k

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#70321 11-May-2007 09:32

Completely OT, but I just wanted to say that:

NZBNW should win an award for the most Patriotic Signature Line

An awesome job by Dean and the boys yesterday morning to beat Oracle so convincingly

Go Team New Zealand !!!

freitasm

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#70325 11-May-2007 09:50

The iPhone is an iPod with phone capabilities. And some are really "cool" such as the user interface, and some are really weak, such as not having integration OTA with the iTunes Music Store - you still need a PC to download music to it.

Add this t the fact that iPhones can only run Apple approved applications and you will not see much of these going into the hands of people who like to add functions or to enterprise.

There's a huge market for iPhones - those who buy a Symbian smartphone and don't even imagine they can actually install more applications on the phone and only use it for SMS, MMS and maybe browsing some pages once in a while.

Power users will go through the iPhone...

As for CDMA/GSM, remember that while in New Zealand this is a level field, in the USA there are more CDMA than GSM, and in Asia it's a huge competition. I don't think the iPhone alone would made any operator change their network.

inquisitor

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#70346 11-May-2007 10:43

thegeekboy: Hey inquisitor - I don't understand the differences between GSM and CDMA technologies - and I haven't read up on it yet - but i understood that CDMA is a better technology, and GSM is more widespread.
...

GSM and CDMA are completely different standards for digital mobile phone networks. Beyond basic technical differences, which make both standards incompatible to each other, GSM is spread much wider (2.4 billion vs. 0.4 billion users) and offers way better roaming coverage.
The wider spread and so bigger market and the fact that most CDMA-patents are hold by Qualcomm, who so strongly influence prices for CDMA-equipment, make GSM cheaper. Also the number of GSM-suppliers and so the variety of network equipment and handsets is higher.
Further CDMA development is guided by Qualcomm, whereas GSM is more open with many companies working on standardization.
The fact that big carriers like AT&T (now Cingular), Brazil's Vivo, India's Reliance and China's Unicom have migrated from CDMA to GSM, whereas there hasn't been a reverse migration, makes clear which standard is on the upside.
Further the next evolution stages of GSM (UMTS/WCDMA and HSDPA) are technological superior to CDMA's 3G-version (CDMA2000, EDVO).

I just found out, that Telstra is about to launch a UMTS network in NZ, but with the 2100-MHz-spectrum, that was allocated to them, they can practically serve only urban areas and will be dependant on a roaming agreement with Vodafone to enable rural service. With a GSM900 basestation, Vodafone can cover a radius of up to 36 km, whereas a UMTS2100 basestation reaches not farther than 4-8 km.
Hopefully authorities will also assign some spectrum in the 400 MHz-band or force Vodafone to swap frequencies with other operators, so all dispose of frequencies in all bands, as German authorities did last year.

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#70348 11-May-2007 10:49

inquisitor: Further the next evolution stages of GSM (UMTS/WCDMA and HSDPA) are technological superior to CDMA's 3G-version (CDMA2000, EDVO).

I have to disagree. Actually HSDPA LTE (to come software in the future) is pretty much the same as CDMA 2000 EVDO Rev C or later. They will converge at some point it seems. And remember, any HSDPA and WCDMA device still needs to use Qualcomm technology - just look in the back of those fancy UMTS/WCDMA cards from Vodafone and you will see the CDMA logo.

inquisitor: I just found out, that Telstra is about to launch a UMTS network in NZ, but with the 2100-MHz-spectrum, that was allocated to them, they can practically serve only urban areas and will be dependant on a roaming agreement with Vodafone to enable rural service. With a GSM900 basestation, Vodafone can cover a radius of up to 36 km, whereas a UMTS2100 basestation reaches not farther than 4-8 km.

This project was unexpectedly cancelled a couple of weeks ago, just a week before going live in Taurange. TelstraClear and Vodafone couldn't agree on a roaming settlement and things fell apart.

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