A potential TPP gotcha

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#1403016 9-Oct-2015 13:01

If pressure was brought via TPP for NZ to alter its anti nuclear legislation we should at that point withdraw from the agreement. It should be always our line in the sand. TPP is a trade deal and our primary trade sectors are Primary Industry and Tourist Industry both would take a huge
hit as a result of any nuclear accident. The risk/gain calculations do not add up in favour of altering our laws, do deal is worth putting that greater risk to our nations well being.

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#1403026 9-Oct-2015 13:16

MikeB4: If pressure was brought via TPP for NZ to alter its anti nuclear legislation we should at that point withdraw from the agreement. It should be always our line in the sand. TPP is a trade deal and our primary trade sectors are Primary Industry and Tourist Industry both would take a huge
hit as a result of any nuclear accident. The risk/gain calculations do not add up in favour of altering our laws, do deal is worth putting that greater risk to our nations well being.

OR at least make them pay a bond of $100Billion , 100% payable up front, refunded when the plant has been full decommissioned and disposed of properly.

Its too easy for large corporations to set up shell companies / use creative accounting to take the fall for them when things go wrong.

The ONLY way to guarantee they will have the money available for the clean up it to take it off them BEFORE they start.

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Fred99

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#1403052 9-Oct-2015 13:34

MikeB4:
Shall we return to the TPP now .

Sure.
I'll kick it off by saying that I now (at this time) reckon there's about as much chance of the TPP being ratified as there is of NZ building a nuke power plant.
Clinton has put her cards on the table as opposed, so at this stage they have all potential US Democrat presidential candidates opposed.
Trump is opposed - even if as he's a moron his opinion should probably be ignored. However, as he does appeal to blue collar joe sixpack types, when he drops out of the race, the Republicans have to try to retain that end of the market.
Clinton's decision is no doubt based on expectation of probable negative attitudes about the TPP from black & latino blue collar voters.
Despite apparent sentiment here that the TPP is unbalanced in favour of the US, I don't believe that's the actual case. Stuff I've seen on projected net economic benefit seem to indicate that the US stands to make less than any of the other TPP partners. But that doesn't mean significant change wouldn't occur. It doesn't particularly matter if it was shown that jobs lost (ie as a result of tariff reduction) would be offset by new jobs in other sectors which benefit from increased market access. If you can see that you're probably going to lose your job, then the knowledge that somebody somewhere else might get a job to balance it all out is cold comfort. If there was going to be a large economic benefit, it might be different, but for the USA, that large economic benefit doesn't seem to be there.

Obama seems to be stuck in a very difficult position, Democrat support for TPP (educated / liberal) needing support from economic liberal moderate republicans, who aren't likely to want to see a successful TPP as a crowning legacy for Obama, and Obama is also not likely to want to favour any moderate republican in favour of TPP against a democrat presidential candidate. The vote must be taken before about July 2016 - in the lead up to presidential elections. It looks very messy.

IMO it's a dead duck - won't be passed in the USA. Without the USA, there is no TPP.

gzt

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#1403074 9-Oct-2015 14:11

Disagree. Clinton is 'wanting more information'. The administration is not dumb. There will be horses to trade to pass that and Clinton is just lining up for the best trade.

sir1963

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#1403078 9-Oct-2015 14:26

Fred99:
MikeB4:
Shall we return to the TPP now .

Sure.
I'll kick it off by saying that I now (at this time) reckon there's about as much chance of the TPP being ratified as there is of NZ building a nuke power plant.
Stuff I've seen on projected net economic benefit seem to indicate that the US stands to make less than any of the other TPP partners.

IMO it's a dead duck - won't be passed in the USA. Without the USA, there is no TPP.

Its not just about how much the USA will make, just as important is
How little China Makes
How little Brazil Makes
How little Indonesia makes
How little India makes.

Those 4 economies have the ability to surpass the US.

http://www.theglobalist.com/keeping-china-in-or-out-beijing-vs-washington-on-tpp/

The US which initially set up the WTO (when over 50% of world GDP was the US's) has been losing influence as their share of world GDP falls. They have met some set backs as those 4 new economies push back.

The TPPA and other agreements are about bypassing the once US centric WTO and establishing a new environment where the US can still reign supreme.

On that basis the US WILL sign the TPPA etc, the alternative is that China etc will move more vigorously.

frankv

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#1403082 9-Oct-2015 14:31

Fred99: Despite apparent sentiment here that the TPP is unbalanced in favour of the US, I don't believe that's the actual case.

....

IMO it's a dead duck - won't be passed in the USA. Without the USA, there is no TPP.

I don't think the TPP is unbalanced in favour of the US... it's unbalanced in favour of the rich and powerful. The citizens of the USA and Canada will lose as much as anyone else, hence the opposition to the TPP over there.

However, the rich and powerful exert enormous influence over the President. After all, you need $100 million for a serious presidential campaign, and you're not going to raise that from citizens contributing $1 each. To get the $100M from the likes of GM or Disney or Dow or Texaco or Time-Warner or Intel or Nike or Philip Morris, you're going to have to give them what *they* want. So I'm afraid that the TPP isn't a dead duck at all. :(

Fred99

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#1403104 9-Oct-2015 15:02

gzt: Disagree. Clinton is 'wanting more information'. The administration is not dumb. There will be horses to trade to pass that and Clinton is just lining up for the best trade.

To quote her:
“As of today, I am not in favor of what I have learned about it,”
later adding, “I don’t believe it’s going to meet the high bar I have set.”

After being a global TPP cheerleader, that's somewhat more definite than "wanting more information".
I'd suggest that the candidates themselves are not dumb. There will be a hell of a lot of polling and number crunching going on behind the scenes, an apparent major shift in position wasn't made on a whim - and especially when it's potential egg on the face for Obama.

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gzt

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#1403141 9-Oct-2015 16:33

That quote may have been from the same interview. Clinton stops a long way short of opposing the tpp. She will know exactly what is in it and exactly what measures she needs to support it and save the day for everyone yay! She expects the discussion to boost in the polls as well.

gzt

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#1403255 9-Oct-2015 21:22

This thing is somewhat wide with the NZ government releasing new details over the last couple of days.

Ideally I think we would establish a temporary TPP forum and do each one in a seperate topic.

Requires mod support not really interested in a private echo chamber ; ).

+1 this for any takers?

Geektastic

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#1403289 9-Oct-2015 23:08

frankv:
Fred99: Despite apparent sentiment here that the TPP is unbalanced in favour of the US, I don't believe that's the actual case.

....

IMO it's a dead duck - won't be passed in the USA. Without the USA, there is no TPP.

I don't think the TPP is unbalanced in favour of the US... it's unbalanced in favour of the rich and powerful. The citizens of the USA and Canada will lose as much as anyone else, hence the opposition to the TPP over there.

However, the rich and powerful exert enormous influence over the President. After all, you need $100 million for a serious presidential campaign, and you're not going to raise that from citizens contributing $1 each. To get the $100M from the likes of GM or Disney or Dow or Texaco or Time-Warner or Intel or Nike or Philip Morris, you're going to have to give them what *they* want. So I'm afraid that the TPP isn't a dead duck at all. :(

Amazing as it may be, the rich and powerful, well they kinda run the world. Hence the 'and powerful' part.

frankv

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#1403393 10-Oct-2015 11:13

Geektastic: Amazing as it may be, the rich and powerful, well they kinda run the world. Hence the 'and powerful' part.

That doesn't necessarily make it a good thing.

History suggests that the goal of the rich and powerful is inevitably to make themselves more rich and powerful, at the expense of everyone else. Hence the need for democracy to keep them in check.

grant_k

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#1403396 10-Oct-2015 11:17

Wikileaks has released the final text of the TPP Intellectual Property Rights chapter overnight: https://wikileaks.org/tpp-ip3/

It makes for interesting, if somewhat heavy reading. Makes me wonder how long UnoTelly et al will be able to continue operating from countries which are TPP signatories...

Geektastic

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#1403424 10-Oct-2015 11:34

frankv:
Geektastic: Amazing as it may be, the rich and powerful, well they kinda run the world. Hence the 'and powerful' part.

That doesn't necessarily make it a good thing.

History suggests that the goal of the rich and powerful is inevitably to make themselves more rich and powerful, at the expense of everyone else. Hence the need for democracy to keep them in check.

It's like volcanoes and earthquakes. Not necessarily a good thing but nothing you can do about them...

Geektastic

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#1403427 10-Oct-2015 11:36

frankv:
Geektastic: Amazing as it may be, the rich and powerful, well they kinda run the world. Hence the 'and powerful' part.

That doesn't necessarily make it a good thing.

History suggests that the goal of the rich and powerful is inevitably to make themselves more rich and powerful, at the expense of everyone else. Hence the need for democracy to keep them in check.

Or 'hence the drive to succeed and become one of them'....

Fred99

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#1403454 10-Oct-2015 12:31

grant_k: Wikileaks has released the final text of the TPP Intellectual Property Rights chapter overnight: https://wikileaks.org/tpp-ip3/

It makes for interesting, if somewhat heavy reading. Makes me wonder how long UnoTelly et al will be able to continue operating from countries which are TPP signatories...

Sure it looks like use of VPNs for circumvention of geoblocking is dead in the water, ISPs are forced to police the internet, block access to "file sharing sites", and if you get sprung, then they don't just cut off your connection, but can come on a seize and destroy mission for your PC.
Oh well - we knew hollywood was writing half of the TPP.

It seems to get worse though:

From boingboing

Under the terms of the text, countries in the TPP can force each other to suspend legal proceedings if the trial would cause embarrassing information -- information "detrimental to a party’s economic interests, international relations, or national defense or national security" -- would come to light. That would be the Wikileaks/Snowden clause.

Also, if one country is prosecuting someone for "intellectual property theft," they can require other countries to turn over huge amounts of private data: "information regarding any person involved in any aspect of the infringement or alleged infringement, and regarding the means of production or the channels of distribution of the infringing or allegedly infringing goods or services, including the identification of third persons alleged to be involved in the production and distribution of such goods or services and of their channels of distribution."

In other words, if you're accused of downloading anime in America, the Japanese government can force your American ISP to hand over all of your parents' online records.

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