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BDFL - Memuneh
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Topic # 60511 27-Apr-2010 10:16
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Google is now saying they won't be launching a Google Nexus One for Verizon Wireless (CDMA version), instead recommending people to buy the HTC Incredible, which according to them is "similar in features".

The HTC Incredible is running Android, but with HTC Sense on top of it. Wouldn't make more sense to recommend the Motorola Droid instead?

Anyway, I think fragmentation in the Android market is happening, and it's not going to be nice...





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  Reply # 323447 27-Apr-2010 10:25
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freitasm: Google is now saying they won't be launching a Google Nexus One for Verizon Wireless (CDMA version), instead recommending people to buy the HTC Incredible, which according to them is "similar in features".

The HTC Incredible is running Android, but with HTC Sense on top of it. Wouldn't make more sense to recommend the Motorola Droid instead?

Anyway, I think fragmentation in the Android market is happening, and it's not going to be nice...



What do you mean by fragmentation?

Most phones sold now are loaded with Android v2.1 or soon will be. Even Telecom's LG GW-620f is supposed to be getting an upgrade soon. 

Whether they are or not, 99% of apps run on v1.6 and 2.1.

From the phone USER'S point of view, there is no fragmentation, there is only choice: CDMA, GSM, cheap, expensive, basic or high-spec......all running the same apps. Sure, some phones have different widgets. Big deal. A widget is just another app. 

I'm seeing convergence....not fragmentaiton....as old phones and new converge on Android 2.1.....and apps out today are compatible with at least v1.6 or higher (but for a handful).  

Whereas.....Apple offer two phones and they are both intended for one flavour of GSM carrier: AT*T and like-networks. 

I'm using Android every day and i can't agree with you Mauricio. This is choice...not fragmentation..*because* all these phones run the same apps very happily.   

 

 




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  Reply # 323449 27-Apr-2010 10:29
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Let's see in three years time. That's what happened with Windows Mobile. Microsoft always touted the availabilty of multiple manufacturers and the many different form factors as an advantage.

This worked fine for PDAS, not for connected PDAs though and even less for smartphones, when mobile operators started pushing their own agenda and blocking OTA updates for the OS and other bits.

What wound up happening is that the market started seeing manufacturers launching the same devices, with custom operators ROM across different markets. And one update couldn't be applied over others. Soon people had devices that were not running the same thing.

Wait three years... Then ask me to unlock this thread.




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  Reply # 323453 27-Apr-2010 10:38
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The glue that will hold it all together is the apps. 

An Android device that can't run all the apps out there won't be selling very well.

Underlying the apps is the Android SDK from Google....and that is the foundation the apps rest on.  

It's Open Source. Vendors can't dictate outcomes the way they could with WinMo. The telco environment has become more commoditised...and that has weakened the hold of the vendors over the devices.

Unlocked phones are becoming common in places where they barely existed. This puts power into the hands of the users...and the users want the apps to run on all phones. 

Three years is long time. I'm happy to say that 12 months from now Android will have converged around v2.1 and 2.2....and being linux-based any v2.2 it will be essentially the same platform as v2.1 with enhanced features and a few new functions.....any and all of which can be backported as people like Cyanogen have done with v2.1 functionallity back to v1.6.  

That in itself is interesting. If the telcos try to diverge, it is the open source community that works to return to a common, optimal base for all. 

Cyanogen Mod's overriding aim is to be 100% fu8nctional and run everything.

Glue.... 




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  Reply # 323834 27-Apr-2010 19:18
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I know you have both probably read this story but I think it is an interesting spin on the issue at hand.
The following article from wired.com suggests that the reason for the N1 was more about Google testing the waters to see what they coul handle.......sorry to copy an article from somewhere else but my paraphrasing is not what it should be.........


The Nexus One gives Google direct-sales experience and customer contact that they don?t get as the developer of the Android OS, which is used on many phones from other manufacturers.

Indeed, competing with those manufacturers may be the last thing Google wants.

?It wasn?t about Google becoming a phone company,? wrote telecom analyst Jack Gold in a recent e-mail newsletter. ?It was about Google getting a significant number of devices out there to form a big ?reference platform? testing/pilot environment where they could model, test and tune their ecosystem based on the real-life use of the early adopters who would buy NexusOne.?

Read More http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2010/04/google-nexus-one-experiment/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium...

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  Reply # 323943 27-Apr-2010 23:30
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Makes sense to me. It also makes it understandable why they specifically provided for unlocking the bootloader in the Nexus One...and continue to post source code to the Android tree for the Nexus One frequently and with little lag.

We should shortly see code in Cyanogen Mod that enables the Wireless-N support in the Nexus one hardware. There is already code in CM from as recently as March 31st.

 It's incredible to think that the way to get the BEST support and latest software for your phone is to root it and load up system images composed from free source by a very professional and mature group of phone hackers. These guys are in their late 20s through to 40s. They aren't the kids learning about coding by making stitching together Frankenstein's monsters using blobs from various phones.

CM 5.0.6 *is* better than the Android v2.1 that came with the phone.....and will remain more current.....and compatible...and loading it on your phone means you have 100% Market access / visibility of all paid apps.  




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  Reply # 324046 28-Apr-2010 09:29
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It's not only me thinking fragmentation is bad for the Android ecosystem. GigaOm post today:


To put the fragmentation issue in perspective: Some 96 percent of all Android traffic on AdMob’s network was generated from just two devices on a single version of the OS in September 2009. Seven months later, that same amount of traffic came from 11 different devices across Android versions 1.5, 1.6 and 2.1

With the exception of Google’s Nexus One, carriers and handset makers ultimately control what Android version consumers usecarriers also have a say as to which updates get pushed to phones, so Google can’t upgrade every capable handset to its latest version of Android. And even in the case of the Nexus One, Google is backtracking on its strategy to gain greater control — the once web sales-only phone will be sold directly by Vodafone stores in the UK, while the version Google planned for Verizon Wireless isn’t coming to market after all.


My point stands. While you and I can think of manually updating a device, the majority of consumers will never have that option.







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  Reply # 325526 1-May-2010 10:31
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Back to this topic... The official Twitter app for Android only runs on Android 2.1 and newer. There you go. Anyone running 1.5 (LG) or Sony Ericsson X10 (1.6) with stock ROMs are left out.

And yes, I know you and I can root the handsets and install whatever we want. But that's not how it works in mobile markets for the masses...





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  Reply # 325588 1-May-2010 15:32
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freitasm: Back to this topic... The official Twitter app for Android only runs on Android 2.1 and newer. There you go. Anyone running 1.5 (LG) or Sony Ericsson X10 (1.6) with stock ROMs are left out.

And yes, I know you and I can root the handsets and install whatever we want. But that's not how it works in mobile markets for the masses...



I dont buy that at all... How many people have jail broken iPhones?

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  Reply # 325604 1-May-2010 17:35
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MikeyPI:
freitasm: Back to this topic... The official Twitter app for Android only runs on Android 2.1 and newer. There you go. Anyone running 1.5 (LG) or Sony Ericsson X10 (1.6) with stock ROMs are left out.

And yes, I know you and I can root the handsets and install whatever we want. But that's not how it works in mobile markets for the masses...



I dont buy that at all... How many people have jail broken iPhones?


A drop in the ocean compared to those that don't...



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  Reply # 325629 1-May-2010 19:31
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http://techcrunch.com/2010/04/30/only-27-3-of-android-phones-can-use-the-official-twitter-client/

"Obviously the majority of phones won’t be able to use the Twitter app, nor can they access the newer features Google has been rolling out with the upgraded versions of Android. Google isn’t fully to blame for this — some phone manufacturers are running custom builds of Android and are slow to upgrade (or simply don’t intend to). But developers will be looking to Google to find a way to deal with the fragmentation issue."

This is what I call fragmentation. This is what happened to Windows Mobile before. This month we've seen a new LG and Sony Ericsson Android handsets announced in New Zealand. They are running 1.5 and 1.6 respectively, with no news on any update coming soon.

Google will try to fix it, but there are already a lot of handsets out there that will be left out. And Android reputation will be damaged at some point because of this.

Apple's done really well in this front, unifying the whole platform.






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  Reply # 325940 3-May-2010 09:53
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knave:
MikeyPI:
freitasm: Back to this topic... The official Twitter app for Android only runs on Android 2.1 and newer. There you go. Anyone running 1.5 (LG) or Sony Ericsson X10 (1.6) with stock ROMs are left out.

And yes, I know you and I can root the handsets and install whatever we want. But that's not how it works in mobile markets for the masses...



I dont buy that at all... How many people have jail broken iPhones?


A drop in the ocean compared to those that don't...


True. After 50+ years, my thumbnail sketch of it all comes down to the 90/10 rule. 

Roughly -> Most of the time about 10% of any population will be thoughtful and curious and the other 90% either have no interest or can't be bothered or are afraid (fear being a major side-effect of ignorance). Any exceptions tend to prove the rule. 






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  Reply # 325944 3-May-2010 09:59
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freitasm:
Apple's done really well in this front, unifying the whole platform.


Apple don't support the iPhone 2G any more. They were sold in the year prior to the introduction of the first Android phones.  

Apple's Achilles heal isn't just lack of ongoing support for the software. They don't support the hardware, either. When your battery dies of old age (18 months?) You're supposed to buy a new $1000 phone.  

If Apple owners can pay $80 or more (a lot more) have a new battery put in their phones, then Android owners can pay $30 to have someone flash a more current, modded version of the OS on their device.

I might start up a service for HTC Magic owners: Android v2.1 installed on your Magic: $50. 

Might keep me in beer money. 

 




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  Reply # 325948 3-May-2010 10:04
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freitasm: http://techcrunch.com/2010/04/30/only-27-3-of-android-phones-can-use-the-official-twitter-client/

"Obviously the majority of phones won’t be able to use the Twitter app, nor can they access the newer features Google has been rolling out with the upgraded versions of Android. Google isn’t fully to blame for this — some phone manufacturers are running custom builds of Android and are slow to upgrade (or simply don’t intend to). But developers will be looking to Google to find a way to deal with the fragmentation issue."

This is what I call fragmentation. This is what happened to Windows Mobile before. This month we've seen a new LG and Sony Ericsson Android handsets announced in New Zealand. They are running 1.5 and 1.6 respectively, with no news on any update coming soon.

Google will try to fix it, but there are already a lot of handsets out there that will be left out. And Android reputation will be damaged at some point because of this.

Apple's done really well in this front, unifying the whole platform.




Lol they havent done anything really, except that only they make the devices, and only they push out updates. I dont see any iPhone skins out there from carriers, because Apple dont allow it.

Two very different models...  

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  Reply # 325961 3-May-2010 10:48
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There is also the salient issue that some of the older hardware simply will not run the newer 2.1 features and give the user a good experience.

I think the proposed route from 2.2 onwards is the right way to go. Strip down the OS and move many of the core features to the Market. Then allow the user to determine what runs well and what doesn't on the hardware of their choice.

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  Reply # 326084 3-May-2010 16:00
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I might start up a service for HTC Magic owners: Android v2.1 installed on your Magic: $50. 

Might keep me in beer money. 

 


HTC Magic (32A) owner here....I would actually be keen on this.  Seriously.  Unfortunately the timetable would be a bit tight.  I need my phone by Friday!

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