Real estate, post level 4

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2113 posts

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#2821077 29-Nov-2021 14:53

Geektastic:

Sounds like my father who used to tell me about the Riley he bought which was expensive at £400!!

I had to google Riley!

alasta

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#2821092 29-Nov-2021 15:27

MikeAqua:

The growth in the property market has definitely put me off moving up the ladder. The rungs are simply too far apart now.

This is what people forget when they assume that excessive prices only affect those who don't own property. I'm lucky that I'm too old to get married or have children, because I couldn't afford to upgrade from the shoebox apartment that I currently own.

mattwnz

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#2821126 29-Nov-2021 16:24

alasta:

MikeAqua:

The growth in the property market has definitely put me off moving up the ladder. The rungs are simply too far apart now.

This is what people forget when they assume that excessive prices only affect those who don't own property. I'm lucky that I'm too old to get married or have children, because I couldn't afford to upgrade from the shoebox apartment that I currently own.

IMO housing prices are likely one reason NZ birth rates are so low, as people have to wait a lot longer to save up for a deposit to buy.

That maybe the next problem, where people who need to upgrade to larger houses can't afford to. But I would guess that prices may adjust in the upper markets as supply increases . These small houses maybe fine, but they often aren't a forever home. If people can't sell houses at a certain level, then the sellers have to meet the market. I don;t like the term ' ladder', because just because someone has a house, and are supposedly on the 'ladder' that doesn't mean that they can move up the ladder. The current situation and all the paper 'wealth' created by housing, caused by the ultra low interest rates and QE, is all based on luck / bad luck, and prices likely wouldn't have gone this crazy had we not had covid. .

mudguard

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#2821147 29-Nov-2021 16:54

mattwnz:

IMO housing prices are likely one reason NZ birth rates are so low, as people have to wait a lot longer to save up for a deposit to buy.

I'd probably chuck student loans in there too. Sure they are interest free, but they're also an automatic 12% deduction on your pay cheque until it's gone. Plus tax and kiwisaver... So combine that with big deposits being required and it will probably continue to drop.

Divhon88

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#2822385 1-Dec-2021 11:28

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/12/national-leader-christopher-luxon-with-7-properties-wouldn-t-want-to-see-house-prices-fall-dramatically.html?cid=soc3%3Anewshubfb&fbclid=IwAR1myl1mVHKWpwJ8naMjGCdt0dSX2RJ_aB_58JsyyD5mHVYaEJZmCdmIAoc Instatntly lost 2 votes from our household.

Act party looks like a worthy go https://www.act.org.nz/housing-and-infrastructure-strategy

quickymart

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#2822546 1-Dec-2021 13:45

Of course he wouldn't want to see house prices fall. He would have less money. Never mind the people who can't afford it, it's all about me me me with my 7 investment properties (sigh).

Zeon

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#2822627 1-Dec-2021 14:44

I kind of wonder how much influence developers have over both National and Labour. The "bipartisan" housing announcement to allow super dense housing in expensive cities backed by both parties reeks of developers just looking to maximise their profits on any given development. One set of consents, plans etc. now cover much more "income" from a single redeveloped property with more units and size (and thus selling price). The loss of car parking in the name of the environment is greenwashing at its finest. You will find more cars parked at houses in poorer areas of big cities than the expensive areas and the poorer residents typically have things to juggle that are hard with public transport to deal with such as young children and health issues and disabilities.

There will still be nice houses for the wealthy in the good areas with good carparking, nice gardens and other ammenities while the poor will be fighting for scarce on-street carparking and views of concrete out of every window....

While for a national government I may understand it, but I am really starting to be confused by this government - are they actually the party of the rich pretending they are the party of the poor? Maybe they just have never travelled to those places that are like what they want to create and compared with an NZ lifestyle.

In terms of house prices, no one dared to blame the real reason - rock-bottom interest rates but with those rising again its going to finally start to cause some rationality around prices again. The debt to income ratios being introduced also look to be helping cool things too....

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compound

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Master Geek

#2822669 1-Dec-2021 16:48

Zeon:

I kind of wonder how much influence developers have over both National and Labour. The "bipartisan" housing announcement to allow super dense housing in expensive cities backed by both parties reeks of developers just looking to maximise their profits on any given development. One set of consents, plans etc. now cover much more "income" from a single redeveloped property with more units and size (and thus selling price). The loss of car parking in the name of the environment is greenwashing at its finest. You will find more cars parked at houses in poorer areas of big cities than the expensive areas and the poorer residents typically have things to juggle that are hard with public transport to deal with such as young children and health issues and disabilities.

The high density development plan lumps a large portion of Waipa district into the Hamilton tier 1 growth area. The 3 storey intensification for cities will mean that this policy could apply to semi rural areas like mine where there is no public transport service in the town. We already see the result of poor planning for carparks with vehicles spilling out over the street off right of ways, the infrastructure so old that there isnt even a curb or centre line for the road. Properties are being bought up by developers because the section size is large (only just got reticulated sewerage 2006) and they can buy land, sit on it and subdivide at their leisure for 6 times the purchase price with high density housing. Wait until they can go up as well and make more again.

MikeAqua

7773 posts

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#2822694 1-Dec-2021 18:08

quickymart:

Of course he wouldn't want to see house prices fall. He would have less money. Never mind the people who can't afford it, it's all about me me me with my 7 investment properties (sigh).

He said he wouldn't want to see prices fall *dramatically* (important qualifier).

I don't think a dramatic fall would be in anyone's interest, especially first home buyers and people who have recently become home owners. The effects on lending would be chilling. Lower prices are little help if you can't get mortgage or if you go into negative equity. Also a falling market would reduce building and still leave us with under supply.

That undersupply leads me to believe a significant fall in house prices is unlikely. I'm not losing any sleep.

Mike

tdgeek

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#2822704 1-Dec-2021 19:12

Zeon:

I kind of wonder how much influence developers have over both National and Labour. The "bipartisan" housing announcement to allow super dense housing in expensive cities backed by both parties reeks of developers just looking to maximise their profits on any given development. One set of consents, plans etc. now cover much more "income" from a single redeveloped property with more units and size (and thus selling price). The loss of car parking in the name of the environment is greenwashing at its finest. You will find more cars parked at houses in poorer areas of big cities than the expensive areas and the poorer residents typically have things to juggle that are hard with public transport to deal with such as young children and health issues and disabilities.

There will still be nice houses for the wealthy in the good areas with good carparking, nice gardens and other ammenities while the poor will be fighting for scarce on-street carparking and views of concrete out of every window....

While for a national government I may understand it, but I am really starting to be confused by this government - are they actually the party of the rich pretending they are the party of the poor? Maybe they just have never travelled to those places that are like what they want to create and compared with an NZ lifestyle.

In terms of house prices, no one dared to blame the real reason - rock-bottom interest rates but with those rising again its going to finally start to cause some rationality around prices again. The debt to income ratios being introduced also look to be helping cool things too....

If it reeks of developers, thats the plan. Develope. More housing, isn't that what is needed?

Yes, the real reason is rock bottom interest rates. Caused by Covid as most Govt went to QE to see the economy mantained. Now, we could have avoided that and watched business after business fail. But house prices are more affordable, but many employees are now out of work due to business failing. What the govt saved on wage subsidies is now spent on Unemployment Benefits. I hear what you say but a pandemic changes everything.

tdgeek

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#2822706 1-Dec-2021 19:15

MikeAqua:

He said he wouldn't want to see prices fall *dramatically* (important qualifier).

I don't think a dramatic fall would be in anyone's interest, especially first home buyers and people who have recently become home owners. The effects on lending would be chilling. Lower prices are little help if you can't get mortgage or if you go into negative equity. Also a falling market would reduce building and still leave us with under supply.

That undersupply leads me to believe a significant fall in house prices is unlikely. I'm not losing any sleep.

Agree. Current consents are high, the National/Labour agreement will/should keep that rolling. It won't be fixed by next Tuesday, and interest rates while rising (and are still cheap as chips) its not 3% per year, more like 0.3% per year.

But its a great story to add to news daily.....

Batman

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#2822708 1-Dec-2021 19:18

Zeon:

While for a national government I may understand it, but I am really starting to be confused by this government - are they actually the party of the rich pretending they are the party of the poor? Maybe they just have never travelled to those places that are like what they want to create and compared with an NZ lifestyle.

gotta be statement of the year. while it may seem like that, i think it's just they don't have a plan for anything, everything seems to be made up on the go.

i don't look too much at talks and announcements, i look at action.

it seems they are raising taxes for the "salaried rich" to hand out free money. the "salaried rich" are actually the working class. the rich rich have their money locked up in companies/trusts/etc that are not touched.

so if you are on a salary, you get to pay for the poor, while the really rich get richer, the poor remain poor.

tdgeek

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#2822713 1-Dec-2021 19:29

Batman:

Zeon:

While for a national government I may understand it, but I am really starting to be confused by this government - are they actually the party of the rich pretending they are the party of the poor? Maybe they just have never travelled to those places that are like what they want to create and compared with an NZ lifestyle.

gotta be statement of the year. while it may seem like that, i think it's just they don't have a plan for anything, everything seems to be made up on the go.

i don't look too much at talks and announcements, i look at action.

it seems they are raising taxes for the "salaried rich" to hand out free money. the "salaried rich" are actually the working class. the rich rich have their money locked up in companies/trusts/etc that are not touched.

so if you are on a salary, you get to pay for the poor, while the really rich get richer, the poor remain poor.

You need to move to the Politics forum.

mattwnz

20141 posts

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#2822824 2-Dec-2021 00:18

Zeon:

In terms of house prices, no one dared to blame the real reason - rock-bottom interest rates but with those rising again its going to finally start to cause some rationality around prices again. The debt to income ratios being introduced also look to be helping cool things too....

Plus lack of supply of houses being sold on the market, and these being at record lows. Plus add in the lack of builders and materials and inflation during covid times , making new builds a lot more expensive, so a lot of people are prepared to pay more for existing homes. Then add in the increasing building standards. The increased insulation standards that are coming in could also increase costs on new builds quite a bit in the future.

quickymart

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#2822918 2-Dec-2021 08:53

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2021/12/housing-crisis-everything-points-towards-a-market-correction-in-2022-economist.html

"Correction" not "crash".

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