Real estate, post level 4

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#3064350 16-Apr-2023 17:43

quickymart:

https://thespinoff.co.nz/business/12-04-2023/what-its-like-buying-and-selling-in-aucklands-frosty-property-market

Selling seems to be a ticket to downhill-trending prices at the moment.

Supply and demand it will sort itself out. As a prominent recent politician stated, we are a market driven economy, it will sort itself out

Nothing to see here

kingdragonfly

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#3073276 7-May-2023 09:15

Lot of rough language, because ... Australia. It's a parody video.

I'm curious if what is said is applicable here

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kingdragonfly

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#3083148 1-Jun-2023 09:15

Core Logic: First home buyers holding on with 25% market share despite low sales activity

Despite continued affordability pressures, tight lending rules and higher mortgage rates, first home buyers (FHBs) in Aotearoa New Zealand have maintained their record high market share over the past two quarters.

CoreLogic’s latest First Home Buyer report, released today, shows the number of purchases made by first home buyers (FHBs) in Q1 2023 was 3,260; the lowest for that quarter of the year since 2011. However, FHB market share held around 25%, on par with previous record highs and well above the long-term average of 21-22%.

CoreLogic NZ Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson said the current market conditions were impacting all buyer groups, and FHBs have ‘held on’ relatively well by making the most of weaker conditions.

“There are many potential reasons for the relative strength of FHBs, but key ones are likely to include using KiwiSaver for all or part of their deposit, a willingness to compromise on the type and/or location of a property, and making use of the low deposit lending quotas at the banks,” Mr Davidson said.

“The wider downturn in values and relatively high stock of listings on the market has also helped finance-approved FHBs, and brought a wider range of properties back onto their radar.”

The national trends are being reflected across the main centres, with all six areas reflecting higher than average market share for FHBs.
...

kingdragonfly

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#3083150 1-Jun-2023 09:18

From the UK, looking at NZ housing market.

The Guardian: New Zealand house prices drop again but still out of reach for first-time buyers

Another month of slumping New Zealand house prices will do little to bolster the hopes of first home buyers under strain from sharp increases in living costs and interest rates, analysts say.

The national average home value was 13.3% lower in April than in the same month of 2022 and sits at NZ$902,501, according to figures from the valuation company QV. But the pace of the market’s drop has slowed since the start of the year, and property prices are still 22% higher than they were before the pandemic.

New Zealand’s runaway property market has for years created a crisis of inequality and deprivation – while proving an investor’s paradise that some thought would yield ever-increasing returns. At the peak of the boom, houses cost 10 times the median income, with a 43% increase during the first two years of the pandemic.

But 2022 saw some of the biggest drops in the market since the global financial crisis, paired with interest rates pushed up by the Reserve Bank to curb a 30-year inflation high. The latest dips would scare both investors and those hoping to put a foot on the property ladder, analysts said.

“The increase in interest rates on top of the increases in living costs means that even people who were previously OK are now going to find themselves being poor,” said Shamubeel Eaqub, an economist with the consultancy firm Sense Partners. “They’ll have to make choices about what they put into their supermarket baskets.”

Property listings in April reached a historic low and buyers were scarce, QV said. Quarterly prices in Auckland fell 4.4% while Christchurch and the capital, Wellington, both recorded dips of 3.7%.

But that did not mean housing was actually more affordable, said Eaqub.

“We’re in this kind of standoff where house prices have fallen, but they haven’t fallen sufficiently relative to the income that’s available for renters and first home buyers, or the amount of money they’re able to borrow,” he said. At the peak of the housing boom, house prices were 10 times the median income.
...

cddt

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#3083153 1-Jun-2023 09:30

tdgeek:

Supply and demand it will sort itself out. As a prominent recent politician stated, we are a market driven economy, it will sort itself out

Nothing to see here

It's easy to say that it's a free market, but the various arms of government hold tight control over virtually all levers of supply and demand (interest rates, immigration, consents, zoning, kiwisaver, etc.)

quickymart

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#3083174 1-Jun-2023 10:22

Maybe prices have finally stopped falling? https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2023/06/housing-prices-plateau-suggesting-market-downturn-is-over-new-report.html

itey

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#3083340 1-Jun-2023 15:08

Very unlikely, average asking price is still 150k more than the pre covid price, despite interest rates being double.
People simply cannot afford to borrow at present
There is no sign that the ocr will decrease anytime soon
= prices will fall

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tdgeek

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#3083402 1-Jun-2023 18:23

itey: Very unlikely, average asking price is still 150k more than the pre covid price, despite interest rates being double.
People simply cannot afford to borrow at present
There is no sign that the ocr will decrease anytime soon
= prices will fall

While im not going to be bothered to search for the article, it did state that FHB's are getting stuck in to buying.

Why?

Prices are not rising they are falling.
Salaries (not for everyone) are well up
Better jump in now

Just my opinion but "it did state that FHB's are getting stuck in" is factual.

OCR has been heavily indicated that its topping out.

tdgeek

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#3083448 1-Jun-2023 18:26

quickymart:

Maybe prices have finally stopped falling? https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2023/06/housing-prices-plateau-suggesting-market-downturn-is-over-new-report.html

I have not read that but based on my recent post, not surprising. There is no need to be really affordable, its about being more or less affordable. House prices rise, thats normal, so if interest rates stabilise and we all know they will drop at some point, get in now. Just my opinion

tdgeek

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#3083449 1-Jun-2023 18:30

cddt:

It's easy to say that it's a free market, but the various arms of government hold tight control over virtually all levers of supply and demand (interest rates, immigration, consents, zoning, kiwisaver, etc.)

JK favours a market driven economy, hence my post. There will always be a level of Govt intervention/control especially in a tiny tiny economy

The economy in this context is buyers and sellers acting freely. Interest rates, immigration, consents, zoning, kiwisaver are all niche and discreet controls.

Handle9

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#3083454 1-Jun-2023 18:39

tdgeek:

Interest rates, immigration, consents, zoning, kiwisaver are all niche and discreet controls.

They are the fundamental drivers of the housing market not "niche" controls.

Handle9

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#3083456 1-Jun-2023 18:40

tdgeek:

Nothing to see here

Tell that to someone with a massive mortgage or who can't afford to buy a house.

tdgeek

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#3083457 1-Jun-2023 18:45

Handle9:

They are the fundamental drivers of the housing market not "niche" controls.

Those "fundamentals" have been in place for a LONG time. One of them has changed in recent times, will it always be the driver in the future? No.

EDIT, my point is recent high interest rates were due to a pandemic, not BAU

tdgeek

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#3083460 1-Jun-2023 18:52

Handle9:

Tell that to someone with a massive mortgage or who can't afford to buy a house.

Just correcting your cherry picking post

"Supply and demand it will sort itself out. As a prominent recent politician stated (John Key), "we are a market driven economy", it will sort itself out

Nothing to see here"

Those that bought at peak prices driven by super low interest rates, took that risk. Those that cannot afford a house are seeing a change. FHB's appear to be heavy in the market right now

Furthermore as we are apparently proud to be a low wage economy, this is what you get. Over time this low wage economy will get less and less able to buy, thats been the case for a few decades now. We would rather buy then build, adds to it.

Handle9

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#3083487 1-Jun-2023 21:12

tdgeek:
Handle9:

They are the fundamental drivers of the housing market not "niche" controls.

Those "fundamentals" have been in place for a LONG time. One of them has changed in recent times, will it always be the driver in the future? No.

EDIT, my point is recent high interest rates were due to a pandemic, not BAU

Current interest rates are well within historical norms. Continuously denying there’s a problem and sayng it’s all fine is disingenuous.

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